(13) How can we explain voter behaviour?

Part affiliation:
1. Partisanship - following a particular party
  1. 12/15 presidential elections the party that managed to gain the highest level of support from its own identifiers was the party that won the election
  2. E.g. 2004 89% Dems voted Kerry, 93% Reps voted Bush.
  3. 25-30% of electorate are independent voters - voters who do not identify with either party
  4. Mustn't see independent voters are simple group
  5. Might be 5 reasons for independent voting:
    1. 25% disengaged - do not care with Party gets into power. Seem happy with the status quo
    2. 24% disguised partisans - Tend to vote consistently with one party. But are not registered as either Democrat nor Republican as they may occasionally vote for an Independent candidate
    3. 18% Deliberators - classic swing voters
    4. 18% Disillusioned - very little faith in government and 2 party system
    5. 16% Dislocated - tend to describe themselves as socially liberal and fiscally conservative. Will tend to vote for candidates (Either from 2 parties or independents) who represent these values
Gender
1. Women more likely to vote Democrat than men Between 1964 to 2000
2. Gender Gap - Women and Men vote in different ways
3. Reason for Gender Gap - connected to policy differences.
4. In major policy areas
  1. Abortion
  2. Defence
  3. Law and order
  4. Gun control
  5. Women's rights
5. Women support Dem policies
Race
1. Most significant group = African - American and Hispanics
2. African - Americans (AA) most likely to vote Dem:
  1. Dem President Johnson and Kennedy persuaded Congress to pass civil rights laws that protected civil rights in these areas:
    1. Housing
    2. Employment
    3. Education
    4. Voting
  2. Between 1980-2008 A-A never gave less than 83% support to Dem candidates
  3. Even during Clinton's impeachment trial A-A's were the most loyal supporters
3. Growing group = Hispanics
  1. 16% of total population and rising
  2. Young group so full-potential yet to show - group to watch and a group which politicians will be canvassing heavily
  3. Not a unified group - from very diverse areas ( e.g. Mexico vs Cuba)
  4. Voted Bush in 2000 election why
    1. Brother Jeb Bush married to Hispanic
    2. G W Bush fluent in Spanish
    3. Bush directly campaign to Hispanic group - socially conservative policies e.g. Anti-Abortion etc
    4. 20% increase in Republican support was seen
  5. Obama holds greatest Hispanic vote in 2012 election 71% vs 27% to Romney why?
    1. Immigration reform
    2. Republican rhetoric and platform based on deportation of illegal immigrants
    3. No campaigning of Hispanics from Republicans
  6. Hispanic voting patterns seem to go counter to Hispanic Demographic e.g. lower income, Socially conservative, divided on abortion laws.
Religion = Protestant vs Catholic voters
1. Protestant = Republican
  1. Socially conservsative
  2. Fiscally conservative
2. Catholic = Democratic
  1. Socially responsibility
  2. Fiscally responsibility
  3. HOWEVER , Democrat stance on abortion is causing problems for Catholic base. Starting to see decline in Catholic voters following 2004 elections ( Bush won 52% of Catholic votes)
3. Michael Barrone: "American Two Nations of different faiths"
  1. Tradition-minded morally liberal
  2. Liberation-minded morally liberal
4. In 2008 election religion was not a major player - none of the candidates was a "born-again evangelical"
5. However, in 2012 election religion played a key part. Romney gained 78% of white evangelical Christian votes + 63% of those who attended religious services more than once a week
  1. Could be due to Tea Party movement and the rise in social conservatives the Republican party - think Rick Santorum etc.
  2. Hispanic becoming more important in this debate as increasing number of Protestants and declining Catholics
Age - Quite difficult to identify long-term trends
1. Rising American Electorate (RAE) = Hispanics, single parent families, unmarried women and people under 30
2. Going to become a key demographic
3. 60% of those under 30 and 52% of those under 45 voted for Obama - making up 46% of all voters
4. 2008 - 2012 sees less young voters and less young voters voting Obama
  1. Perhaps Obama went out of fashion - Yes we can
Wealth - Michael Barone - "man does not vote on bread alone" - wealth only part of the bigger picture
1. Traditionally Wealthy have voted Democrat - ficsally liberal
2. Traditionally less well off voted Republican - fiscally conservative
3. However, Obama (2008) appealed to most economic groups with emphasis on financial reform of banks (credit crunch)
4. Obama still popular in 2012 with richest segments of society
Region - shifting between two parties
1. Democrats traditionally South
2. Today - North Eastern states
3. Republicans traditionally North
4. Today - Southern states
5. Why
  1. South becoming more socially conservative
  2. Populations declining in North Eastern state
Population areas
1. High-density tend to vote Democrat, sparsely populated areas vote Republians
  1. Suburbs are the battleground in elections because the voters are not decided
  2. Live in the city exposed to a variy of views
  3. Living in rural not exposed to lots of divers people, less sympatheticto liberal views
Policies
1. E.g. Economy - Clinton 92
2. E.g. Change - Obama 08
3. E.g. Foreign policy post 9/11 - GW Bush 04
4. E.g. immigration 2012
  1. Swung to Dem over Hispanic
5. Dems Affirmative action, redistribution of wealth, welfare fights, reform of criminal system
States
1. Centre likely to vote Republican
2. West and north coast Democrat
3. 50 : 50 election most states are safe apart form FL, CO, VA, NV
4. The south use to vote Dem but with the Dem Kenny support equal right they swung to Repub
WASP White Anglo-Saxon Protestant vote Republican

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(13) How can we explain voter behaviour?

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