Operations Management / Forecasting

Concept
1. Forecasting is a process of making predictions about the future course of a business or a company based on trend analysis and past and present data
  1. Also the use of scientific techniques and methods
2. Features / characteristics
  1. Forecasting is strictly concerned with future events only
  2. It analysis the probability of a future event or transaction occurring or happening
  3. It involves analysis of data from the past and the present
  4. Forecasting uses scientific techniques and methods to make such forecasts
  5. But it also involves certain guesswork and observations
Uses of Foprecasts
1. Accounting
  1. Cost / profit estimates
2. Finance
  1. Cash flow and funding
3. Human Resources
  1. Hiring / recruiting / training
4. Marketing
  1. Pricing, promotions, strategy
5. MIS
  1. IT / IS systems, services
6. Operations
  1. Schedules, MRP, workloads
The basic steps in a forecasting task
1. Step 1: Determine purpose of forecasts
2. Step 2: Establish a time horizont
3. Step 3: Select a forecasting technique
4. Step 5: Prepare the forecast
5. Step 6: Monitor the forecast
Forecasting Methods
1. Qualitative
  1. These methods are not purely guesswork—there are well-developed structured approaches to obtaining good forecasts without using historical data.
  2. Delphi technique
  3. Sales force polling
  4. Executive opinions
  5. Consumer surveys
2. Quantitive
  1. can be applied when two conditions are satisfied: numerical information about the past is available; it is reasonable to assume that some aspects of the past patterns will continue into the future.
  2. Moving average
  3. Naive methods
  4. Exponential smoothing
  5. Trend analysis
  6. Decomposition of time series
Aplications
1. Supply chain management
2. Economic forecasting
3. Earthquake prediction
4. Land use forecasting
5. Player and team performance in sports
6. Sales forecasting
7. Telecommunications forecasting

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Operations Management / Forecasting

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