(3) Why did Thatcher win in 1979?

Underlying: economic and political problems
1. Narrow political majority - dependent on support of the Liberals
2. Economic and financial crises (e.g rising inflation, declining value of money, growing debit in trade balance; IMF crisis 1976; public spending cuts)
3. Rising unemployment (1.6 million by 1978)
4. Belligerent trade unionism (weakening of traditional loyalty to Labour)
Result
1. Conservatives, 339 - 13,697,690 - 43.9%
2. Labour, 269 - 11,532,148 - 36.9%
3. Liberal, 11 - 4,313,811 - 13.8%
4. It was only a landside in term's of seats in the south of England else where it was more divided
Conservatives felt uncertain whether they would in fact recover power under Mrs Thatcher. No one knew whether the country was yet prepared to accept a women as Prime Minister. James Callaghan continued to enjoy a big lead in terms of personal popularity. Mrs Thatcher was clearly lucky
The Triger:
1. The end of the Lib-Lab Pact Labour and the SNP and Welsh nationalist losing there referendum meant that they felt no need to support Labour anymore. They supported the Conservatives in a vote of no confidence at the end of March 1979 in the Commons - this triggered a GE
Calalyst : winter of discontent
1. The public mood
  1. Because increasingly impatient and embittered:
    1. Anti-Callaghan sentiment began to began to bubble dangerously as various trade union groups continued to voice their discontent to voice their to threaten non-provision of service and picket
  2. Discontent soared as vital public services were affected and the most vulnerable in society (schools, hospitals and old people's homes) were hit hardest:
    1. Access to drugs was limited as industrial action continued to impede haulage and railway workers joined the strike; the NUPE called school caretakers and cooks, paramedics and refuse collectors out to strike; rotting rubbish piled up in city centres; those responsible for burying the dead in Liverpool let over 300 bodies to accumulate forcing the council to discuss disposal at sea
  3. Discontent fuelled fights and chaos:
    1. strikers were confronted in local pubs and attacked
  4. Callaghan's disregard fanned public anger still further:
    1. He holidayed and went sight-seeing following an international summit in the Caribbean and, on return, trivialised the notion of a crisis.
  5. But, there was sympathy for strikers too:
    1. There was recognition that many of those striking were woefully paid and lived in relative poverty; there was also recongnition that, for some, striking was a last resort
  6. And, industrial action was welcomed by some who saw only benefits:
    1. May enjoyed the enforced holiday from their public sector jobs; there were no proven hospital deaths as a result of the industrial action; there was no shortage of food; there was no outbreak of mass violence and no need to deploy the army
2. The morale of the Labour party
  1. Callaghan seemed unperturbed:
    1. He showed disregard for the chaos and public anger, and trivialised the situation on his return from the Caribbean: "I don't think other people int he world will share the view that there is mounting chaos."
  2. But the Labour government was running out of allies, spirit and hope:
    1. By March 1979, the SNP no longer had worked with Labour following the failure of the referendum on scottish devolution; the Liberals wanted an early election to dispense with embarrassing trail of Jeremy Thorpe; Labour made desperate attempts to secure the support of Ulster Unionists, Irish Nationalists and Scottish Nationalists
  3. The Labour Party and Parliament were exhausted and Callaghan became fatalistic
  4. Ultimately, Callaghan's Labour Government was brought down by a single vote:
    1. Callaghan was forced to forced to go to the queen to ask for a dissolution of Parliament following the lose of a vote in the Commons on 28 March 1979; an unnatural coalition of Tories, SNP and Ulster Unionists had defeated the govt.
  5. In effect, the Winter of Discontent has generated a revolution:
    1. However, rather than ushering in socialism, this revolution brought about Thatcherism, while the Labour Party Plunged into crisis
Exacerbated by: Labour
1. Callaghan's Leadership - relaxed
2. Election timing - uncertain
3. Breakdown of the Lib Lab Pact
4. Loss of support from minority parties
Clark view of why Thatchers Won
1. Advertising
2. Inflation - double figures
3. Sea-change public mood - only Tories could deal with union's

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(3) Why did Thatcher win in 1979?

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