Decision analysis

Decision analysis

1. Decision basis composition

   • alternatives
   • value
     • Identification of problem
   • information
   • logic

2. is

   • a discipline
     • that
       • adress important practices
       • asses recommended course of action
         • through
           • Data analysis
           • decision making
       • reduce uncertainty
         • by
           • 4 elements

3. Scenarios

   • Certainty
     • complete information
       • with
         • Future
       • through
         • Bayes Theorem
         • 8 Decision criteria
           • EMV
           • Laplace
           • Pesimistic
           • Optimistic
           • Hurwicz
           • Savage
           • Likelihood
           • EVPI
   • unncertainty
     • less information
       • with
         • various states of nature
         • probability
   • risk
     • not complete knowledge
       • with
         • certainty
   • competition

4. Influenced by

   • reciprocation
   • Commitment
   • Social proof
     • to
       • take decisions
     • based on
       • what other people think is correct
   • Liking
   • Authority
   • Scarcity

5. Decision Modeling

   • is
     • an approach
       • to
         • managerial
         • provide information
         • problem solution
     • a mathematical development
       • of
   • Types
     • Deterministic
       • where
         • input data is known
         • there is certainty
     • Probabilistic
       • where
         • there is uncertain
         • input data unknown
   • Data
     • Quantitative
       • Numerical factors
     • Qualitative
       • Factors that affect environment
   • Steps
     • Formulation
     • Solution
     • Interpretation