elections and voting- mechanisms

elections and voting- mechanisms

1. requirements of a presidential candidate

   • constitutional requirements
     • natural born American citizen
     • 35 years old
       • youngest ever was Roosevelt who was 42 who became president when McKinley was assassinated
         • the youngest ever elected was Kennedy- 43
     • residency of 14 years
     • limit of 2 terms
       • first to feel this effect was eisehower
         • other term limited presidents include Reagan, Clinton and George w bush
       • not to have already served 2 terms as president
   • extra constitutional requirements
     • political experience
       • conventional wisdom
       • 3 pools of recruitment
         • vice
         • state governors
         • senators
       • not many representative members get themselves to be regarded as a leading presidential candidate
       • however, Donald trump n 2016- no political experience
       • a notable nomination contest was Hillary Clinton and Donald trump as Clinton had previously served 8 years as first lady and 7 years in the senate whereas Donald trump has had next to no political experience
     • major party endorsement
       • if someone is serious about becoming president , it is vital to be chosen as the candidate for one of the two major parties. Eisenhower has to become a republican. trump had to become a republican. Wallace , Anderson and perot show that third party or independent candidates do not lead to the white house
     • personal characteristics
       • gender and race
       • it is an advantage to be marries, marital affairs can hinder chances- e.g. senator Kennedy pulled put after a young female acquaintance drowned in his car after a late night party
       • however, bill Clinton managed to secure the democratic nomination for president after allegations surrounding an affair
     • ability to raise large sums of money
       • this is crucial for a successful bid for presidency. campaigns are expensive and few candidates can afford to finance themselves e.g. billionaire steve forbes. candidates need to rasie large sums of money
         • have to raise money a year before the election starts.
     • organisation
       • candidates cannot use the parties organisational structure so they must create their own.
         • time consuming
         • expensive
         • demanding
       • dukakis and dole had weaknesses in thier organisation and lost. organisation is key to winning the parties nomination
       • obama had superior organisation to hillary clinton
     • oratorical skills and being telegenic
       • the ability to speak and look good on tv is crucial. it is easy to think that lincoln with his gangling physique an dwheelchair bound roosevelt could have made it to the wwhite house in the TV age,
       • mondale said he was no good on TV. and gramm said he was too ugly to be president.
       • reagan had been an actor before becoming president and bill clinton's oratorical skills and being telegenic were factors in his success. displayed by obama
     • sound and relevant policies
       • while style is important there needs to be substance. voters will detect if a campaign is a policy free zone.
       • they must have practical and relevant policies often starting with major or significant issues. for bill clinton it was 'the economy, stupid!, for Mcain it was campaign finance reform

2. invisible primary

   • formal events
     • some formal events occur. e.g. televised debates. a pivotal moment was in the 2011 debate where rick perry couldn't remember all three fed departments he would close down. he later ended his presidential bid after coming 6th in the new hampshire primary
     • some states have special events. e.g. iowa has a straw poll. however, the winner of the poll rarely is the nomination winner. the democrats have a jefferson day dinner which provides opps for speech making. iowa hold its dinner in november. obama made an impressive speech here in 2011 which helped him win
     • there are visits to key states such as iowa and new hampshire as they are usually the ones to hold the first primaries and caucuses. for example in 2012 the 8 presidential candidates had made a total of 771 visits. the winner santorum made 266 visits while the looser mitt romney only made 28
     • obama published a book dreams of my father, to coincide with his launch and so did romney
   • fundraising
     • money raising has to occur to accumulate a large enough war chest to be taken seriously. dole ended her invisible primary as she couldn't raise enough money. al gore raised to much money that it deterred any challangers for the democratic nomination.
     • in the 2016 clinton raised 1.6 billion and trump raised 957 million
   • front runners
     • it was important to end the invisible primary as the front runner according to the opinon polls, whichever candidate was leading in the polls just before the primaries and caucuses began was usually confirmed as the nominee. this was not the case in 2004 when Dean was the front runner in the polls but crashed in the primaries and caususes. this was also not the case with hillary clinton has a 15 point lead over obama but obama won the nomination
   • is the period between the candidates declaring intention to run for president and the contests of the primary season. it is an important period for a candidate to gain name recognition, raise moneyand develop sound organisation. there is often a correlation with who wins the invisible primary and who wins the nomination
     • however, not in 2016
   • the media is a huge influential factor. candidates hope to be seen as a serious presidential candidate
   • candidates make a formal announcement of running. obama announced he was re-running in April. it was unusual for the incumbent president to make an announcement before a challanger from the opposing party had emerged.
     • opinion polls are crucial at this stage. pollls may be state or regonal and even sometimes national

3. primaries and caucuses

   • primaries
     • a primary is a state based election to choose a parties candidate for presidency. a primary shows support fir a candidate among ordinary voters and chooses delegates committed to vote for that candidate at the NPC
       • small but largely populated areas
     • they show popularity for candidates and to choose delegates to go to the NPC
       • run under state law- variation
     • timing
       • states decide when to hold the. parties usually lay down the dates. often mid jan to june. in 202 it was decided that iowa and new hampshire could have theirs in feb. however, new hampshire and florida scheduled theirs in january the RNC stripped them of half of their NPC delegates
       • new hampshire tends to schedule theirs on a day no one else is dong one to give their primary pominence. others coincide theirs with nearby states to give a regional primary.
       • super tuesday
         • a tuesday in early february when a number fo states coincide their primaries in order to gain influence for their region in the selection of major party presidential candidates
           • was originally held to stop the southern states domination and was originally in march but in 2008 it was held on the 5th of feb
       • front loading
         • an incrasing number of states scedule their primaries earlier in the cycle, in an attempt to increase the importance of their state in choosing the major party candidates
     • open
       • any registered voter can vote for any party
       • they allow cross over voting which means that democrat voters can participate in a republican primary and so on. this became a problem in the democrat primaries in 2008 because independent and republicans voted in the democratic orimaries and voted for obama
     • closed
       • only regoistered democrats can vote in the democratic primary and vice versa
     • modified
       • like closed primaries as only registered party voters can vote , but independents can voe in either parties primary
     • they can also be classified according to how delegates to the npc are chosen. in most primaries candidates are awarded deegates in proportion to the votes they get- proportional primaries. most states set a threshold- minimum pergentage of the votes to get a delegate- usually 15%. ho
       • however, some primaries are winner takes all- whoever gets the most votes gets all the delegates. in 2012 the republican rational committee forbade any state from holding a winner takes all primary before the 1st april. this meant it took romney longer to accumulate the delegates to secure him the nomination than it did Mcain 4 years earlier
   • caucuses
     • state based series of meetings for the selection of a party's candidate for the presidency. held in a few geographically large but thinly populated areas. often unrepresentative low turnouts. fulfill the same function of primaries
     • e.g. iowa and north dakota
     • causus voters tend to be more ideological
       • favour ideological candidates
   • early primaries and caucuses
     • iowa
       • traditionally holds the first primaries. however due to the low turn out in caucuses it is not seen as the most important first primary
       • it was important in the 2008 races as huckabee won the republican caucuses although he only had 8% in the national polls.
       • they were important in the democrat races as clinton finished third to obama and was the first blunder in her campaign. this led to her loosing to obama which was one of the most startling upsets n presidential history
     • new Hampshire
       • t was said that a candidate could not become president tif they didn't win the new hampshire primary. however, this was proved wrong with obama
       • however, the amount of time they visit and the media attention makes it critical
       • winning the iowa and new hampshire primary and exceeding expectations- as obama did- brings media attention, money and a boost int he opinion polls
   • incumbent presidents
     • when an incumbent president is running the primaries for the presidents party rarely get any coverage and some states don't bother with a primary under such circumstances.
       • presidents are often nominated by their party without much thought
   • turn out
     • in 2008 58 million people participated in 37 and 39 democratic and 39 republican primaries- represented around 30% of the voting age population . the turn out in individual contests varies
     • factors affecting turnout
       • wayne
         • better educated, higher income and older members of the electorate are more likely to vote in primaries than young, less educated and poorer people.
       • voters are more ideologically extreme
       • the type of primary
         • open primaries have a higher turnout than closed primaries. this is true when only one party has a competative race
       • how competative the race is
         • if a race is hotly contested the turn out will be higher
       • whether the nomination is unchallanged
         • primaries and cacuses scheduled early in the calendar attract a higher turnout.
           • the lowest turnouts are when the incumbent president is unchallanged
   • the increased importance of primaries
     • play an important role as theyare the only route to becoming the presidential nominee
     • however in the past most states did not hold primares and candidate selection was controlled. big bosses decided the nominees and if any primaries were held they were not decisive. in 1968 no candidate who won the primaries won the nomination
     • due to the undemocratic nature of the past presidencies the democrats established the Mcgovern-fraser commission to reccomend reforms of the presidential nomination process. it has resulted in more states holding primaries
   • strengths of the nomination process
     • increased level of participation by ordinary voters
     • increase in the choice of candidates
     • the process opened up to outsiders
     • the power of the party bosses has declined
   • weaknesses
     • voter apathy and boredom
     • voters are unrepresentative of the voting age population
     • the process is too long
     • the process is expensive
     • dominated by the media
     • lack peer review
   • how can it be improved
     • mostly concerned with the timing and attempts to increase the role of professional politicians without losing the democratic elements of the current system
     • possible improvements could be having regional primaries and give greater weight to the to the votes of the elected politicians-members of congress, state governors and the like- at the party conventions when they come to choose the presidential nominee
   • are they important
     • can choose the front runnner

4. choosing the vice

   • until 1980 the vice was chosen at the NPC and convention running mates chose the voce.
   • now the vice is chosen by the president and is announced at the convention, traditionally on the third day
   • strategies for choosing a vice
     • balanced ticket
     • potential in government
       • bush and cheyney- bush had no government experience as he was former chief of staff and secretary of defense.
     • party unity
       • a way of re-uniting the party after the primaries- choose one of his former rivals. reagan choosing bush. however, sometimes this cannot work due to the bitter personal battles

5. NPC

   • it is the meeting held once every 4 years by each major and some minor parties to select their presidential and vice presidentail candidates and write a party platform
   • RNC
     • OHIO
   • DNC
     • pensylvania
   • 3 days rather than 4
   • formal functions
     • choosing the presidential candidate
       • in theory they choose the presidential candidates. however, noe delegates come already committed to a candidate, as this is known before hand it is a foregone conclusion
       • rather it confirms the candidate
     • choosing the vice
       • this function has been lost over the last 3 decades
     • deciding the party platform
       • the party platform is a document containing the parties policy. it is formulated by the platform committee. the national committee drafts it and it is announced at the convention.
   • informal functions
     • promoting party unity
     • enthusing the party faithful
     • enthusing ordinary voters
       • acceptance speech
     • importance of modern day conventions
       • 29% of people said they were important in helping them make their decision.
       • gey celebrities in, media coverage has declines
       • owever, they can identify the rising stars of the future, often voters tune in for the important parts

6. general election campaign

   • campaign finance
     • the federal election campaign act restuled from the watergate scandal and hoped to reduce candidates reloance on ealthy donations- fat cats- to equalise the money spent by both major parties
       • limited individual contributions to $1,000
       • limited corporate contributions to $5,000
       • matching funds
       • esablished the federal election commission
     • the objective of these reforms were partly successful but there were too many loopholes. the reforms were weakened by the supreme court of buckley v valeo where the SC ruled that the limitation on what individuals or political action committees (PACS) could spend either supporting or opposing a candidate infringed the right to free speech and expression. congress also weakened the reforms by allowing parties to raise money aswell as [arty building. this soft money was seen to be out of control
     • further reform came in 2002 with the bipartisan campaign reform act.
       • national party comittees banned from raising or spending soft money
       • fundraising on federal property forbidden
       • increased individual limits on contributions to candidates or candidate committee
       • banned contibutions from foreign national
   • super pacs
     • citizens united v federal election commission
       • it granted corporate and labour organisations the same rights of political free speech as individuals. combined with speechnow.org v federal election commission led to the setting up of independent expenditure-only committees- super pacs. some see them as an outlet for free speech
         • three super pacs dominated during the 2012 election: restore our future, american crossroads and priorities USA
   • role of TV
     • news coverage- where most americans learn about the campaigns, news outlets report the days events
     • political comment programmes
       • have indepth interviews and attract a more politically aware audience
     • chat shows
       • interviews tend to be less serching and aimed at a less political audience.
     • political commercials
       • first started in 1952 with eisenhowers biographical spot and a series of policy based spots and one where he answered questions
       • the 1960s gave way to the negative commercials. johnson came up with the daisy girl commericial- reconfirmed peoples expectations. they can also have negative effects too. a safer bet is to use humour in negative commericals. commercials can be used as
     • debates
       • a presidential debate is held btween the two major party candidates. they occur during september and october of the electio year . there is also a traditional debate between the two vice candidates
       • there is usuallya debate held behind podiums, then there was the town hall style, in 2002 there was the round table style-talked with eachother-
       • the only time a third party was allowed to participate was when the independent ross perot was running.
       • obama v romney
         • up to the debate the incombent had a lead in the polls. during the debate, romney seemed presidential and obama seemed bored. people thought that romney had won the debate. also some democrats also thought romney won.
       • rules
         • style over substance
         • verbal gaffs can be costly
         • good sound bites are helpful
         • debates can be more difficult for incumbents
       • viewing figures for presidential debates were at an all time high point during the carter and reagan which gained 81 million viewers. the average number currently is around 64 million. however, the high ratings could be due to controversy or expected controversy.

7. election day

   • turnout had dropped
     • 57.7 at the 2016 GE which has dropped since 2012
   • the result is decided by swing states- iowa, new hampshire and florida.
     • ohio voted for the winner in the last presidential elections. trump made 25 visits and clinton 16
   • important factors in voting
     • party affiliation
       • parties tend to gain the most support from those who identify with it
     • gender
       • women tend to support democrats and men tend to support republicans
         • due to policy differences- abortion, law, defense, gun control, women's rights
           • romney- remarks about rape
     • race
       • minority groups tend to favour democrats. african americans were clintons biggest supporters.
     • religion
       • protestants tend to vote republican and catholics tend to vote democrat- however prochoice can cause problems
     • age
       • younger voters are more likely to vote democrat- Obama got the most support from 18-29
     • wealth
       • the wealth gap has narrowed. it is not as bid as when it was with the new deal. in 2012 obama won those earning under $35,000 by 28%
     • geographic region
       • the north east has become the heartland of the democratic party. gone is the democratic solid south. in 2012 the democrats won all the northeast states
     • population area
       • the more densly populated areas tend to vote democratic while sparsely populated areas tend to vote republican. the battle ground for the election is therefire in the suburbs.
     • policies
       • policies tend to vary from election to election
         • 2016 trump election- immigration
   • why obama won in 2012
     • the incumbency factor
       • trying tp defeat an incumbent with a united gov behind tehm is hard. obama was nominated unapposed
     • early and effective attacks on romney
       • due to romneys late nomination due to the loss of the winner takes all strategy obamas campaign had already introduced his as a tax dodging =, job outsourcing villain who would shred the safety net holding the poor and elderly. romney never recovered
     • he ran a better campaign
       • the obama campaign knew they werent supposed to get re-elected but figured out who they needed to restister to vote and turn out to change that. he had more field offices open. it was the African voters who won him the presidency as in ohio 96% of african amerocans voted for him
     • romney- the man and his gaffes
       • he lacked the common touch to get alongside with the voters. he was uneasy with voters. he also made verbal gaffes, after moving to the far right in the primaries he found it hard to centre himself. he contradicted what he said in the primaries. obama poked fun at his flip-flopping. it was too late to overcome his image of incompetence. an example of one of his gaffes was 'i like to fire people'm
     • the clinton and bush effects
       • obama recieved help from his predecessors. clinton endorsed him in TV ads and made a speech at DNC. he also recieved help from bush as in the polls it was Bush who recieved the blame for the economy 53%. of the 53% who blamed bush 85% voted for obama
     • the october surprise
       • the first october surprise was when nixons campaign manager kissinger announced that 'we believe that peace is at hand' in terms of the vietnam war. this pulled the rug from under Mcgovern who went on to lose. the 2012 october surprise was a matural disaster in terms of hurricane sandy. both candidates saw an opportunity in terms of publicity. while romney was seen loading emergency supplies obama was pictured looking presidential while taking charge of the situation room at the white house. this showed him in the role of commander in chief.