Phases of a Project Simulation

Phases of a Project Simulation

1. Determination of scenarios for analysis

   • Simulation tools
   • Scenario analysis pessimistic, optimistic and intermediate

2. Definition of the system under study

   • Define variables of decision
   • Define scopes
   • Establish assumptions
   • Establish limitations

3. Model Generation base simulation

   • It is not very detailed
   • A base simulation model is generated
   • Information is translated into a simulation language

4. Generation of final model

   • is ready to perform the simulation and study the behavior of process
   • will be the root model

5. Validation of model.

   • It is tested with the current operating conditions
     • A behavior similar to that presented in the process must be obtained.
   • Tests are performed on the model with real input information to observe its behavior and analyze its results.
   • Las formas más comunes de validar un modelo
     • accuracy with which historical data is predicted
     • Expert opinion
     • accuracy in predicting the future
     • simulation model failure check
     • acceptance and confidence in the person's model

6. Verification of the model.

   • Initial assumptions may change.
   • Check that all the parameters used in the simulation work correctly

7. Collection and analysis of data.

   • The useful information for the probability distributions of the variables will be determined
   • A preliminary version of the problem is obtained

8. Generation of preliminary model.

   • The model is built
   • The information obtained is integrated
   • A range of variation is estimated.
   • Constant values are determined

9. Analysis of sensitivity

   • The scenarios are compared with the best final results
   • Statistical tests are performed

10. Model documentation, Suggestions and conclusions.

    • It includes
      • Suggestions
      • Programming Considerations
      • Variable Distributions
      • Scope and limitations
      • Model Assumptions
    • It will allow the use of the model generated in future adjustments.