Gov 1359

Gov 1359

1. Understanding Presidential Campaigns and Elections in the US

   • predicting campaigns is an art and a science
   • "naive" forecasts: are based on fairly ineffectual aspects to the candidate (ie. tallest candidate wins
   • "expert opinion" or "checklist forecasts": author comes up with a model that will predict if the incumbent or challenging party will win
     • tend to emphasize personality/character, leadership, elite opinions and observations, mood of country, history (fairly accurate)
   • public opinion polls: measure public opinion through carefully constructed questions and random samples
     • accuracy is expressed by sampling error, depends on factors such as question bias, unrepresentative samples, estimations of likely voters/turnouts, and that sometimes people are uneducated etc
     • horserace polls predict elections, tracking polls study changes, exit polls determine how you voted
   • econometric models: if economy does well, incumbent is likely to win
     • accurate, parsimonious, and timely
   • prediction markets: foreign betting on candidates (usually accurate because well researched
   • statistical models: dynamic and most accurate
   • Structuralists: estimate president elections via standard regression maodels. Aggregators: estimate voting intent using national polls. Synthesizers combine properties of above, beginning with economic explanations and embedding aggregated preferences. Judges carefully observe the campaign, going deep in a qualitative manner.
   • models evaluated based on accuracy, lead, parsimony, and replication
     • accuracy and lead are traded off
   • campaign forecasts have taught: electoral cycles exist, campaigns influence electoral outcome, economy matters to voters, voters are retrospective and myopic, voter opinion cannot be easily swayed.

2. Origins and Evolution of the American Presidential Selection Process

   • founding fathers: CC was a meeting to tweak AoC, but instead wrote a new one
   • AoC was weak and decentralized, and FF had experienced both weak and strong executives, new the perils of both
   • because constitution had to be passed pragmatic compromises had to be developed
     • there were lots of debates over presidential selection (eligiblity, manner of selection, and reelection
       • eventually settled on natural born citizen of at least 35 years who has lived in US for at least fourteen years
       • proposed selection plans: legislature (experts understand more, less gridlock, but a smaller electorate leads to corruption, too much power in hands of one party
         • or: selection by public. (gives governing validity and legitamacy to pres, pres is subservient to the people not the legislature , but unpractical at the time of FF and public opinion is undeserving of this faith
       • electoral college: state gets as many electors as members of congress, people vote for electors who gather and vote for pres. winner gets all electors (except in ME and NA)
         • 12th amendment changed to a ballot w/ both P and VP, instead of first place going to one and second going to the other
         • who are electors? each party within states decides how to appoint electors.
     • core principles of FF: executive independence, minimize opportunity for corruption, balance between small and big states, and respect for and fear of popular participation
   • campaigning issue: how to allocate assets (candidates time and how much money to spend and where
     • most states vote the same every year, which means in safe states you should spend less time, and instead focus on swing/battleground states
       • there are 181 safe rep electors and 227 dem. swing states change over time but not form election to election, and to change it parties try to register new voters in swing states
   • the electoral college exaggerates majorities, and allows presidents to enter office with greater exaggerated mandate, influencing the first 100 days. and elections have become more and more polarized, meaning the number of swing states is shrinking
   • electoral reform: problems: hard for third party to win, some votes worth less, people focus on swing states (alternatives are not great either
   • Presidential campaign as a start up: hierarchy, frugality, starting small with big goals. differences: often more money involved, pay day is not a bonus but rather the white house

3. The Primaries and Caucuses

   • mixed system: real decision about nomination is made at NC, and candidates can choose whether to run in primaries
   • McGovern Fraser Commission: anti-discrimination provisions, explicit party rules and open party meetings, bans apportioning delegates in winner take all (unit rule)
     • followed chicago riots after 1968 Humphrey was named nominee despite not running in any primaries
     • McGovern Fraser: transferred power from party bosses to the electorate in the form of primaries and caucuses
       • postreform candidates have a longer period to pick a running mate and do so knowing their nomination is secure, and so importance has moved away from pure geographic ticket balancing and into a perceived ability to govern
         • llustrated by the ECT Eagleton-McGovern fiasco
         • personal compatiblity is also a factor
   • proportional vs. winner take all: party power vs. state power, longer race (must start running earlier), trying to persudae public not elites, media is in charge of disseminating knowledge to the large public
   • media involves different ways to pitch to the media and represent your candidate. do ads matter less bc what is important is what the news channels are covering>? socail media has become necessary to access younger demographics, more competition for cable news etc.

4. Choosing a Running Mate and the National Convention

   • spring interregnum: between nomination and general election
   • first nominee to select own running mate was FDR, and its been that way since
     • judgement factor: selecting a running mate is the first major decision by the candidate, so it is a show of how good their judgement is
     • how? key factors to consider: is this person ready to be president, how is this person going to help me govern, and how is this person going to help me win?
       • strategic choices: compensate for candidate's perceived weakness, reinforce key campaign message, represent important demographic group, mobilize base, offer government experience, offer contrast, heal campaign division. BOTTOM LINE: DO NO HARM
   • NCs: decision making bodies in 19th and 20th centuries but now different, as nominations are settled well in advance of convention. they are the formal announcement of nominees, mainly media events, and energize the base. out of power party hoslds first
     • how much do NCs matter? they provide media coverage and an ephemeral post convention bounce
   • Skaperdas-Grofman: those in second place in a two way should wage a more negative campaign, those third in a three way whould concentrate on the front runner
   • not much study on the process of selecting a running mate
   • William Mayor: VP is a piece of bait
   • coverage of a running mate only affects the most susceptible voters to the media
   • choosing a running mate that appeals to independents? (worked with Cheney and Palin)

5. Advertising and Modern Presidential Campaigns

   • individually, ads may not do a lot, but together become greater?
   • effective campaigns capture attention and stay in memory, creating a connection with the voter
     • the most effective ads: tell a story, which is compelling, are simple, clear, credible, authentic, well done, emotional, on message, are relevant, are memorable, and make you think and act
       • good elements in ads: repetition, humanizing a candidate, making a candidate larger than life/into a hero, emotionally charged, appealing to families, visual tactics, telling a story , posting a threat and a solution, exemplifying the american dream, using children