global hazard trends- Unit 2 rees

Trends in disasters

• chronic hazards-widespread and effects everywhere (global warming). in a globalized world more disasters will be reported as a result of improved technology, so they can prepare and predict more efficiently. Equally with the world population rapidly increasing the number of vulnerable people is increasing
• total number of deaths ---the total number of deaths fluctuates but overall it has decreased due to BETTER HEALTH CARE,TECHNOLOGY,INCREASED HAZARD AWARENESS
• 1960-2000 deaths
• 2010-approximately 50
• geophysical disasters- the variation over time can be accounted for by the clustering of events. no solid evidence that the frequecny or magnitude of earthquakes or volcanic eruptions is increasing. still remains a hige killer
• 1960-10
• 2010- 38
• hydro physical disasters- the number is definetely on the increase, and is likely to be associated with climate change. also could be caused by the increase of environmental degradation caused by population increase. (EG) deforestation and loss of land for dire wood and to grow crops can cause flash flooding. it makes the impact of natural disasters worse. increased dramatically since the 1960s. Also factors such as el nino contribute to hydro physical disasterss
• 1960-20 disasters
• 2010-220 disasters
• 2004- the number of disasters increased maybe due to the tsunami caused by the Indian ocean earthquake

human factors in disasters

• *physical factors such as el nino contribute to the growth of disasters-- but human behavior plays a part too because it leads to increased vulnerability. (eg) if there is a natural disaster on a remote island then it will not be a disaster. the more people the higher chance of a disaster
• INCREASE IN POPULATION
• Africa in 1950- population was around 200,000
• Africa now- thee population is around 1 million
• -densley populated areas are usually in LEDC's. In these areas there tends to be less
• -pressure on land which leads to people living in high risk areas (eg) low lying flood prone land in Bangladesh
• DEFORESTATION AND LAND DEGRADATION
• the pressure on land also results in :
• -deforestation to gain farmland, causes flooding and soil erosion
• -destruction of mangroves as costal areas are developed, leads to coastal erosion and flooding
• POVERTY AND POLITICS
• -earthquakes have higher death toll in less developed countries which cannot afford the technology to build earthquake proof buildings
• -developing countries may not be able to afford to prepare for emergencies (eg) Bangladesh relies on foreign aid to provide flood and cyclone shelters

physical factors in disasters- EL NINO

• effects the climate of over half the world
• happen every 3-8 years and can last from 12-18 months
• 2015- there is a predicted el nino year
• strongest since 1950
• DURING A NORMAL YEAR
• 1. The eastily trade winds move warm water towards the western pacific
• 2. in the west (Australia and Indonesia) there is warm moist air so air rises and forms rain clouds LOW PRESSURE
• 3. in the eastern pacific there is descending air as it is cool. HIGH PRESSURE and lack of rainfall
• There is an underwater current EQUILATERAL CURRENT
• the trade winds pushes warm water across to west.
• to create the current there is a upwelling of cool water

normal year

during an el nino year

• EXPLANATION OF EL NINO
• +There are weak trade winds over the pacific ocean leads to an eastward flow that either weakens or reverses the current
• + The warm water moves east which results in
• -warm water in the east pacific
• -colder water in the wet pacific
• + warm water results in ascending air which gives heavy rainfall=LOW PRESSURE
• + cooler water in the west pacific results in descending air = HIGH PRESSURE
• + the equilateral under current is suppressed due to the warm water moving towards Peru
• Austrailia- droughts and fires
• Peru- floods
• TELECONNECTIONS- how it affects other parts of the world
• ~india
• there are direr conditions as the monsoon pattern is distrupted
• ~1997- Peru suffered from rainfall more than 10 times normal- nearly 10% of all health facilities were damaged due to flooding, erosion and mudslides. the water was 4c warmer
• ~US impact of the 1997/98 el nino estimated to cost $25 billion
• ~heavy rainfall in California, Mexico and coasts of peru often results in flooding and mudslides
• ~suppression of the cold current in east pacific
• ~drought cost $2 billlion in Australia during 1983 el nino
• ~the 2015 el nino is expected to reduce el nino but it is likely to be replaced by extreme rainfall
• - south amercian fishers lost around $290 million during the 1982/3 el nino as catches declined
• -the frequency of droughts in California is meant to be reduced in 2015 el nino- replaced by floodign due to extreme rainfall

el nino year

la nina

• la nina is when the normal years intensify
• the trade winds intensify so more water migrates to the western pacific. La nina happens before or just after el nino
• - during la nina the air pressure is even lower over Australia and Indonesia
• - rainfall increases over the Western pacific (unusually low pressure)
• - droughts and forest fires occur in the eastern pacific(unusually high pressure)
• Teleconnections of la nina
• -humidity is higher in Peru which can lead to diseases which will effect the health sector
• -Australian farmers benefited from the best rai in 10 years in 2005/6
• -heavy rains can bring problems to Veitnam. oil palm, rubber,coffee and cocoa plantations can all experience reduced crops and rice fields can become flooded

disaster and vunerability

• 
• A hazard only exists when people are threatened by an event, and that the disaster is the realization of a hazard.
• the number of people affected by a hazard shows an overall rising trend since 1991. Being 'affected' means surviving the disaster but losing your home, crops and animals, livelihood or health for a certain time.
• MEDC's- have a lower vulnerability because there are large cities, higher technology, secure livelihoods, population density smaller, infrastructure, lower birth rate.
• LEDC's- poorer people and weaker governments, not as able to prepare for disasters, lower technology, high population density.

cost of disasters

• total cost of damage --there are some outliers from when major events happened (eg) 2010- $360 billion. grown exponentially.
• 1960-$under 10 billion
• 2012-$160 billion
• Developed countries economic loss is greater than developing countries> HOWEVER they appear greater in developed countries because of the value of their economies infrastructure
• (eg) the cost of insuring a house in UK is great but in Bangladesh it is not uncommon for people to loose their crops, houses and all their possesions in a flood- none of whihc are insured!!
• many developing countries rely on crops and the toursit industry for their income and both of these can be destrroyed in a disaster
• ECONOMIC LOSES IN POORER COUNTRIES MAY BE SMALLER IN ACTUAL FIGURES BUT FAR GREATER AS A PERCENTAGE OF THEIR ANUAL GDP

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