Most likely outcome of Paris COP 21 meeting?

Most likely outcome of Paris COP 21 meeting?

1. Outcomes of previous COP meets?

   • Kyoto Protocol - adopted at COP 3
     • World's first GG emissions reduction treaty. BUT completely voluntary!
     • Guidelines est. at COP 6 in Bonn
     • US didn't ratify under Bush
     • Only enforced in Feb 2005!
     • Clean Development Mechanism
     • Joint Implementation Mechanism
     • Developing countries exempt
   • COP 1 (Berlin)
   • COP 11 (Montreal)
   • COP 15 (Copenhagen)
     • Copenhagen Accord
     • No formal treaty!
     • Most recent attempt to implement a formal international agreement
   • UNDERLYING TONE = NOTHING SIGNIFICANT ACHIEVED YET!!
   • COP 17 (Durban)
     • Parties commit to new universal CC agreement by 2015, for period beyond 2020
       • Paris = last chance!
   • COP 20 (Lima)

2. What is the Conference of Parties (COP)?

   • UN establishes IPCC in 1988 as James Hansen warns about man made global warming
   • Text of UNFCCC adopted at UN HQ in 1992
   • UNFCCC opens for signatures at 1992 Rio Earth Summit
   • UNFCCC materialises in 1994, with 196 nations having signed up. These countries are known as the "Parties". Meet on annual basis.

3. Potential outcomes

   • Legally binding emissions agreement (MITIGATION) - corresponding to the idea of a 'carbon budget' and 2 degrees of warming
     • 'Stranded assets'
     • Who has most to lose from this? E.g. China, India & Brazil
     • With or without an obligated country specific target (non-binding)?
     • How would this be organised at an international level?
       • Adapting/strengthening institutions - new powers
       • System backing INDCs - verification and reporting etc.
     • Country specific or collective?
       • INDCs coupled with an overall plan?
     • Solidified by future goal of complete decarbonisation (e.g. by 2100)
     • Will it be enough?
       • Non-state actors e.g. cities and businesses need to do more too. Diplomacy won't solve everything!
       • Current INDC proposals may only be enough to halt warming close to 3 degrees
         • Targets need to be ramped up over time. An agreement must have an eye on LONG TERM goals (i.e. 2050)
     • In tandem with a carbon price - tax or trading system?
       • Already exists, on smaller scales, in six jurisdictions around the world (e.g EU Emissions Trading - started in 2005)
   • Momentum has been building for something big!
     • Ban Ki-moon hosting Climate Summit in NY (2014). Mobilising the Parties (and other key figures) prior to Paris.
     • Do governments have the confidence to take action?
     • Extended talks in Bonn (Germany) prior to Paris
       • Desire to finalise paper agreement before conference starts. Grown again to 50+ pages!
       • Lack of headway on aspects such as L&D and financial commitments
     • Huge last min push by French gov
     • Publication of INDCs in lead up
       • 146/196 UN nations, who cover 86% of 2010 emissions!
     • First time large majority of governments appear to be on board
       • Needs to be trust/consensus in any agreement. Learn from mistake of Copenhagen!
   • Progress on...
     • Rich/poor (developed/developing) effort sharing
     • Emissions targets/ambitions/goals. 2050? 2100?
     • Financial commitments
       • Volume?
       • Who pays?
         • Transfers to developing countries via likes of Green Climate Fund
         • Compulsory contributions (developed) vs. voluntary (developing)
         • Addressing large gap between existing $$ for mitigation and adaptation in developing nations and their needs/requirements (pointed out clearly by G77 group & China)
         • Learning from errors of Copenhagen commitment
       • Key aspect along with emissions reductions. $$ makes everything else possible!
       • The strings attached to the INDCs! Around 25% of proposed cuts are conditional on financial support
     • CCS
   • Deal on Loss & Damage (L&D)?
     • E.g. climate compensation for AOSIS?
   • Mechanism for strengthening commitments over time?
     • Binding vs. non-binding
     • CC won't be solved overnight!
     • Regular deepening of emissions cuts e.g. reviews and updates of INDCs
   • Nothing?! (i.e. no agreement)
     • Seems very unlikely, but don't disregard!