Models of voting behaviour

Models of voting behaviour

1. The Party Identification Theory

   • Emphasis on political socialisation
     • People learn their political attitudes and behaviour as they grow up
       • Family
       • Schools
     • Influenced by parents' leanings and developed political loyalties.
   • Deep attachment to a party and a sense of identity often referred to as partisan alignment
     • Period of partisan dealignment - 'very strong' identification levels with Labour or Conservative
       • 1964 was 45% 1979 was 21% 2001 was 13%
   • David Butler and Donald Stokes
   • "Like sports fans cheering on their team, voters with strong party preferences welcome the opportunity to express their support and share in their party's performance, even when they know their support will not effect the outcome." - Richard Mulgan

2. The Sociological Theory

   • People's social characteristics influence their participation in politics
     • Social class was very important
   • The sociological model of voting behaviour started with the major social cleavage in British society - social class
     • Social cleavage (social class) indicates
       • The type of political socialisation in a family which lead to
         • Party identification, leading to
           • Political attitudes and voting intentions
   • In 1967 Peter Pulzer wrote: "Class is the basis of British politics, all else is embellishment and detail."
     • To a large extent, the party system mirrored the class system.
       • The upper and middle classes vote Conservative
       • The working class vote Labour
       • There have always been 'deviant voters' however
     • Ethnicity, gender, region and religion all linked to voting behaviour

3. The Rational Choice Theory

   • In the 1980s the emphasis shifted from psychological and sociological approaches
     • Instead focusing on the individual making a rational judgment in a calculated and deliberate way
       • Hilde Himmelweit, a social psychologist at the London School of Economics - 'How Voters Decide' (1981)
         • Argued that judgements were based upon past perfomance or related to prospects for the individual under alternative
   • Voting is now INSTRUMENTAL not EXPRESSIVE
     • David Sanders of Essex University (1996) focused on the importance of the economy in helping people decide
       • Due to this, parties had to begin to alter what they offered the electorate in line with what they think they wanted
         • Parties needed to sell their potential and achievements - with a main focus on leader and media management
       • In the 1980s and 90s, some doubted this theory believing no individuals decision ca be completely independent as they are exposed to biased presentation of news in the media
       • Paul Whiteley supports this approach with his policy preference model
         • Whiteley argues that attitudes play a crucial role in determining behaviour. Voters are assumed to have preferred policy positions and know the policy positions of parties
           • They then vote for the party nearest to them in terms of policy preference
   • American political scientists V. O. Key and Morris Fiorina advance a theory of retrospective voting.
     • Casting one's vote in response to a perceived government performance. A vote is no longer an expression of a life-long commitment; rather it is a business transaction like any other

4. Dominant Ideology Theory

   • Dunleavy and Husbands (1985) argued that individual choices are influenced by media misrepresentation
     • Media distorts the process of political communication
       • They decide the agenda for debate and provide a biased coverage of the news
     • Absence of traditional factors such as class and party loyalties
       • People are more likely to be swayed by what they see, hear, and read
     • Media seen to reflect a dominant prevailing ideology
       • Voters influenced to vote for parties that advance policies which conform to the thinking of that media branch