19354139
Description
Mind Map by JORGE ARMANDO ROSAS PALATTO, updated more than 1 year ago
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Created by JORGE ARMANDO ROSAS PALATTO
over 4 years ago
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Operations Management / Forecasting
- Concept
- Forecasting is a process of making predictions
about the future course of a business or a
company based on trend analysis and past and
present data
- Also the use of
scientific
techniques and
methods
- Also the use of
scientific
techniques and
methods
- Features / characteristics
- Forecasting is strictly concerned with future events only
- It analysis the probability of a future event or
transaction occurring or happening
- It involves analysis of data from the past and the present
- Forecasting uses scientific techniques and
methods to make such forecasts
- But it also involves certain guesswork and observations
- Forecasting is strictly concerned with future events only
- Forecasting is a process of making predictions
about the future course of a business or a
company based on trend analysis and past and
present data
- Uses of Foprecasts
- Accounting
- Cost / profit estimates
- Cost / profit estimates
- Finance
- Cash flow and funding
- Cash flow and funding
- Human Resources
- Hiring / recruiting / training
- Hiring / recruiting / training
- Marketing
- Pricing, promotions, strategy
- Pricing, promotions, strategy
- MIS
- IT / IS systems, services
- IT / IS systems, services
- Operations
- Schedules, MRP, workloads
- Schedules, MRP, workloads
- Accounting
- The basic steps in a forecasting task
- Step 1: Determine purpose of forecasts
- Step 2: Establish a time horizont
- Step 3: Select a forecasting technique
- Step 5: Prepare the forecast
- Step 6: Monitor the forecast
- Step 1: Determine purpose of forecasts
- Forecasting Methods
- Qualitative
- These methods are not purely guesswork—there are
well-developed structured approaches to obtaining
good forecasts without using historical data.
- Delphi technique
- Sales force polling
- Executive opinions
- Consumer surveys
- These methods are not purely guesswork—there are
well-developed structured approaches to obtaining
good forecasts without using historical data.
- Quantitive
- can be applied when two conditions are
satisfied: numerical information about the past
is available; it is reasonable to assume that some
aspects of the past patterns will continue into
the future.
- Moving average
- Naive methods
- Exponential smoothing
- Trend analysis
- Decomposition of time series
- can be applied when two conditions are
satisfied: numerical information about the past
is available; it is reasonable to assume that some
aspects of the past patterns will continue into
the future.
- Qualitative
- Aplications
- Supply chain management
- Economic forecasting
- Earthquake prediction
- Land use forecasting
- Player and team performance in sports
- Sales forecasting
- Telecommunications forecasting
- Supply chain management
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