1.1.1 The pressure on energy and other resources can be illustrated by car ownership
184.108.40.206 In 2003, 13.6 out of every 1,000 urban households in China had a car
220.127.116.11.1 The highest ownership rates were in Beijin (66 per 1,000) and Guangdong (43.7 per 1,000)
18.104.22.168.2 In the same year the car ownership in the USA was 750 per 1,000
22.214.171.124 If India and China achieve future car ownership levels even half of those in the USA, there will be double the current numbers of cars in the world
1.1.2 The rapid rise in oil prices
in 2007 and 2008 was the
outcome of rising demand
and stagnating supply
1.1.3 Oil may be being pumped out of the ground at a faster rate than new reserves are being discoverd
1.1.4 A key resource concern is the path India and China take as they continue to grow economically and gain power.
126.96.36.199 If growth trends since 1990 continue, some time in the first half of this century the two emerging Asian powers will reach total GDP levels similar to those of the EU countries and the USA today
1.2.1 Chinese and Indian ecological footprints might be similar to those of the EU and the USA by 2040, which would place huge pressure on water, energy and land resources
1.2.2 In reality this sort of future is probably unachievable, as current known oil, gas, water and farmland resources simply could not support such consumption levels.
1.2.3 Such a level of global consumption might be possible with a dramatic shift toward use of renewable resources.
188.8.131.52 This would involve radical restructuring of the way humans consume resources
1.3 In the last 20 years new global powers have emerged.
1.3.1 The 'newcomers' are Brazil, Russia, India and China - collectively known as the BRICs
1.4 As the EU has expanded to include 28 nations, its power as a bloc has grown
1.5 There has been spectacular economic growth in Gulf States such as the UAR, Qatar and Bahrain
1.5.1 Economic growth in the emerging powers has some obvious benefits
184.108.40.206 China has lifted 200 million people out of poverty since 1990
220.127.116.11 In Brazil income growth has expanded the middle
class and shrunk the number of people in poverty
1.6 However, this economic development is raising a number of concerns
1.6.1 The accelerating rise in the demand for
energy and other resources
1.6.2 The impact on the environment - from global warming to localised river pollution
1.6.3 The uneven distribution of the benefits of economic growth,
with growing inequality between the urban rich and rural poor.
1.6.4 The last of these concerns could create internal tensions that might destabilise and derail economic growth
2 The impact on the older core regions
2.1 Russia and its energy exports
2.1.1 Russia's economy relies on crude oil and natural gas exports
2.1.2 In the last 20 years it has uncovered significant reserves of both oil and gas in its Siberian provinces.
2.1.3 These could add significantly to Russia's global power.
2.1.4 Russia has developed important export partnerships
to the east (China) and the west (Europe).
2.1.5 Russia depends on the European market to buy 80% of its oil exports, but the USA is keen to become a buyer and China's demand for oil is ever growing
2.1.6 During the past decade, China has
joined Japan and South Korea as a major
importer of crude oil from the middle east
2.1.7 This region supplies - Almost 50% of China's oil and 80% of Japan and South Korea's oil
2.1.8 All three countries are in need of alternative crude oil sources and supply routes. Russia would seem to be the obvious source
2.1.9 Asia's great cities need to reduce air pollution by
switching to natural gas.
18.104.22.168 Already the liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan account for nearly 80% of all traded LNG.
22.214.171.124.1 Much of this comes from South Asia and Australia
2.1.10 For mainland China, the cost of LNG has been a constraint, and it has been looking for more cost-
effective ways of increasing its access to natural gas.
126.96.36.199 An obvious source would be the large hydrocarbon reserves in nearby Siberia and Sakhalin Island.
2.1.11 In a world where energy resources are increasingly significant, the potentially vast fields of
oil and gas that underlie Russia's Siberian provinces are a key card in international affairs.
2.1.12 Natural resource reserves have given Russia
increased global significance and confidence.
188.8.131.52 The impacts of this have been felt by several countries:
184.108.40.206.1 In 2006 Russia cut its gas supplies to Ukraine for 3 days over a payment dispute, and in March 2008 it reduced supplies to its neighbour by 25%.
220.127.116.11.2 In August 2008 Russian troops entered Georgia, leading to a short conflict and international crisis.
18.104.22.168.3 In August 2007 Russian
submarines planted two flags on
the Arctic seabed, effectively
claiming sovereignty over a large
area of the Arctic.
22.214.171.124.4 Russia has repeatedly warned the USA not to expand NATO into eastern Europe or to site missiles there.
126.96.36.199.5 Russian gas
the EU were
cut off in
2.1.13 All of these actions have raised international tensions and led some people to speak of a 'new Cold War'
2.1.14 Taken together, they warn the USA to keep out of what Russia considers its sphere of influence.
2.2.1 China has benefitted people within the USA and the EU by making
cheaper clothing and electronics and providing us with cheaper food.
2.2.2 USA and the EU are increasingly dependent on the quaternary sector
providing jobs and dominance over global finances and services.
2.2.3 Problems have been caused by
outsourcing jobs to India and
China and the financial troubles
within the banking sector due to
the 2008 credit crunch.
2.2.4 Large TNC’s such as Apple and Microsoft are outsourcing jobs world wide instead
to bringing graduated to their home country's and creating global villages.
2.3.1 In the USA a painful period of economic restructuring is likely to continue for some time
2.3.2 The US car industry was once
pre-eminent in the world however it has
shrunk drastically since the 1970s
2.3.3 Detroit’s big three, Chrysler, Ford and General
Motors, were begging the US government for
financial help in December 2008 to avoid collapse.
2.3.4 Lack of investment and failure to compete with Japan caused Detroit to plummet
2.3.5 In 2008, the top five best selling cars in the USA were Japanese in origin.
2.3.6 Chinese car companies are
gearing up to launch
themselves on world markets
by doing the following:
188.8.131.52 Dongfeng is investing US$1.3 billion in research and development
centre and factory in Wuhan with a capacity of 333,000 vehicles a year
184.108.40.206 FAW has committed US$1.8 billion to developing vehicles between now and 2015
220.127.116.11 By 2015 Geely will produce 1.7 million cars a year from nine factories in China and
overseas plants planned in Mexico, South Africa, Indonesia, Ukraine and Russia.
18.104.22.168 Chery is planning a
fourth factory with a
capacity of 200,000 cars,
bringing its total capacity
to 850,000 units by 2010.
2.4.1 1957 USSR
2.4.2 1960’s US international
prestige has been to
2.4.3 1961 USSR
2.4.4 1969 USA used
to enable the first
2.4.5 1970’s US
assured by its
2.4.6 1991 the
22.214.171.124 Planning its orion launch vehicle
to replace the space shuttle.
Aims to build a moon base by
2020 and visit Mars by 2037
126.96.36.199 Focuses on unmanned
exploration but may plan
future manned missions
188.8.131.52 Planning a manned, reusable
spacecraft to begin missions in 2015
184.108.40.206 Planning manned
missions to begin
220.127.116.11 Planning its own space
station, and to land a probe on
the moon by 2010. Plans to
manned Mars missions by
18.104.22.168 Planning independent
manned missions and a
lunar base by 2030
2.5 Until recently the emergence of new economic superpowers was seen by the established powers as more of an opportunity than a challenge
2.6 The EU, Japan and the USA have experienced economic
growth and falling consumer prices driven by the explosion
of economic activity in semi-peripheral NICs and RICs
2.7 A likely cause of power
shifts is dwindling fossil fuel
supplies. As oil becomes
scarcer and more expensive,
tensions may begin to build.
2.8 Therefore nations such as Russia with their own oil and gas
reserves have the potential to become increasingly powerful.
2.9.1 The rise of the emerging superpowers will have significant repercussions on the rest of the world.
The shift in power is likely to be particularly uncomfortable for the EU, USA and Japan.
2.9.2 The global recession has already
checked their economic growth.
2.9.3 The emerging superpowers are also likely to
add to their troubles and serious challenges
lie ahead. These include:
22.214.171.124 Ensuring future supplies of energy and minerals
126.96.36.199 Creating a balanced economic base that does not rely too heavily on services.
188.8.131.52 Maintaining the lead in space exploration
184.108.40.206 Curbing outsourcing, which ultimately erodes core jobs and prosperity
220.127.116.11 Rejuvenating ageing populations, i.e. ensuring an adequate supply of labour and innovation
18.104.22.168 Preventing the spread and deployment of nuclear weapons
2.9.4 With China and India’s size and growth rate it is highly likely that they are going to transform the 21st century global economy.
2.9.5 Neither country however can assume its place as a superpower as currently these countries still fall short of Japan and the USA
2.9.6 In the future, if
then the USA and
EU will need to
make room for
China and India
2.9.7 It is likely that the balance of power and technologies will shift from West to East
as education, innovation and consumer numbers increase with economic growth.
2.9.8 The USA has a lot to do to maintain its role as a global superpower
3 The emerging powers and the majority of the world
3.1.1 Growing economies
demand resources, some
human and some physical
3.1.2 The growing Gulf state economies are rapidly diversifying away from oil and gas towards tourism, services and research and development
22.214.171.124 This has created a spectacular building boom in the UAW, Qatar and Bahrain
3.1.3 The construction workers required come from Pakistan and India:
126.96.36.199 It was the birth of his second
daughter that finally forced Raju
Singh's decision to leave home
188.8.131.52 The stonemason borrowed $2,500 from a
labor recruiter in his village in Rajasthan to
pay for an air ticket to Dubai
184.108.40.206 Three years
on, his dream
elusive as a
220.127.116.11 In February he finally paid off his debts
to the labour recruiter in Rajasthan,
including 42% interest on the loan
18.104.22.168 Sitting in a labour camp in the sprawling workers' district of Sonapur outside Dubai,
Singh says he now spends most of his monthly income of about $190 feeding himself
22.214.171.124 Six days a week he wakes at 4am to
travel to the building site, where he
begins his 11 hour day at 6:30am
126.96.36.199 Raju might be forgiven for comparing himself to an Irish navy
building Britain's canals and railways in the eighteenth and
188.8.131.52 The low-skill migrant worker's story does not seem
to change even if the superpowers do
3.2.1 The BRICs are in need of physical as well as human resources to fuel their economic growth
3.2.2 It has been estimated that
China alone accounted for
over 40% of the total growth in
the global demand for oil in
3.2.3 Of all the global arenas, Africa is probably the most disputed today
3.2.4 As a continent
it has huge
3.2.5 The democratic Republic
of Congo and Zambia
possess 50% of the world's
3.2.6 98% of the world's
chrome reserves are
located in Zimbabwe
and South Africa
3.2.7 South Africa accounts for 90% of the reserves of metals in the platinum group
3.3 China in Africa:
development or colonisation
3.3.1 China's search for oil and mineral resources has focused on Africa
3.3.2 Chinese companies are investing
heavily in Africa, primarily in oil
exploration projects and infrastructure to
help exploit and export raw material
3.3.3 30% of all oil
used in China
3.3.4 In 2007, Chinese
investment in Africa totalled
3.3.5 China has
3.3.6 here were estimated to be 750,000 Chinese working in Africa in 2008, and over 900 Chinese companies
3.3.7 Critics argue that all China wants from Africa is its resources, and that it has no interest in African development
3.3.8 Most investment goes to African governments, TNCs and Chinese companies, not to ordinary Africans
3.3.9 China has been accused of overlooking human rights issues, for example:
184.108.40.206 Providing a huge increase in oil revenues to the government of Sudan, which has helped fund war in Darfur
220.127.116.11 Propping up the government of Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe with arms shipments
3.3.10 In many cases large Chinese-funded infrastructure projects are built by Chinese workers, not local labour.
3.3.11 It remains to be seen whether the financial benefits of such investment help some of the least developed countries out of poverty
3.3.12 In general, mining, quarrying and forestry bring few skilled jobs and pay low wages
3.3.13 The age-old problem of Africa's resources leaving the continent as cheap
raw materials rather than expensive manufactured goods in likely to continue
3.4.1 The US thirst for oil is also boosting the strategic importance of countries such as Angola and Nigeria
3.4.2 Experts agree that over the next 10 years Africa will become the
USA's second most important supplier of oil, and possibly natural gas
3.4.3 US strategy in Africa has two main elements
18.104.22.168 The first is unlimited access to key
markets, energy and other strategic
resources, and the second is the military
securing of transport routes along which
raw materials will be moved to the USA
3.4.4 In July 2003 an attempt coup in Sao Tome and Principe, a small west
African state rich in oil reserves, triggered US intervention in the archipelago
3.4.5 Three months later, oil companies, mostly US ones, offered more than
US$500m to explore the deep waters of the Gulf of Guinea, shared by Nigeria
and Sao Tome and Principe. This is double what the countries had hoped for
3.5 Many developing nations, especially in Africa, could be forgiven for envying the rise of China and India
3.6 Despite the rise of the BRICs, the majority of the world still lives in the developing 'South'
3.7 The growing prosperity of the BRICs is unevenly distributed inside those countries
3.8 In China, the prosperous, urban coastal zone is in sharp contrast to the poor, rural interior
3.9 In India the growing middle class is concentrated in cities and the southern states
4 Tension between cultures
4.1.1 Support for the USA's war in Iraq was initially solid, with the UK,
Spain, Italy, Georgia, South Korea, Australia and Ukraine all
providing over 1,000 service personnel to the invasion force
4.1.2 The war was opposed by France
and Germany, and by the UN
secretary-general Kofi Annan
4.1.3 After the initial invasion of Iraq in 2003, many countries
withdrew their troops, undermining the 'coalition'
4.1.4 The Iraq war and the drawn-out attempt to
restore some form of peaceful, functioning
government to Iraq undermined the USA's
4.1.5 Many Europeans believe the war was less about removing Saddam Hussein and his alleged
weapons of mass destruction than about ensuring the USA had access to middle east oil supplies
4.2.1 A feature of the twenty-first century has been a rise in global terrorism
4.2.2 Terrorism itself is not new
4.2.3 The UK experienced terrorism associated with Northern Ireland for decades
4.2.4 Basque separatist terrorism is ongoing in Spain
4.2.5 Islamic terrorism is most often directed against the USA, although it is
questionable whether terrorism is motivated by a dislike of American culture
22.214.171.124 More likely to be directed against American military and political actions
4.3 The future
4.3.1 Tensions between superpowers are
only likely to increase in the future
4.3.2 As the emerging superpowers gain around,
there is the potential for a clash of cultures
4.3.3 Despite globalisation there are at least four cultural world views,and several of these are present in emerging powers
4.3.4 In the Muslim world the growth of Islamic fundamentalism, with its opposition to what it sees as the moral
corruption of the West, has created huge tensions and as China develops, demands for European style
freedoms there may grow
4.3.5 It is difficult to know what the future will bring for the superpowers of emerging powers of today
4.3.6 The US National Intelligence Council report Global Trends 2025, puts forward a number of future scenarios
126.96.36.199 These are very much the world viewed from a US perspective, but they are worth consideration. Possible scenarios by 2025 include:
188.8.131.52.1 A multi-polar world replaces the
current uni-polar one, following the
rise of China, India and other
emerging powers. The USA remains
the most powerful, but less dominant.
184.108.40.206.2 Increased risk of an arms race,
possibly a nuclear one, in the
middle east and east Asia if
tensions and conflict in those
regions cannot be resolved
220.127.116.11.3 Increased resource nationalism and
tension as resources run short and
increase in price. Rising tensions
develop between the BRICs as they
search for new resources
18.104.22.168.4 Long-term decline of Europe and Japan
if they fail to meet the challenges of
rapidly ageing populations
22.214.171.124.5 Resource-rich powers (Russia and the middle east) increasingly challenge the political and economic order
4.4 During the cold war there was a huge cultural divide between the USA and the USSR. It was based on the profound difference in political ideologies
4.5 Although Russia has since turned towards capitalism, the cultural tension remains
4.6 Differences in values are magnified by the mutual distrust and suspicion that persist between the two countries
4.7 Even though they are allies, cultural tensions exist between the USA and Europeans
4.7.1 There are some key societal and cultural differences
4.7.2 Although generalising about cultural differences is notoriously hard there have been some examples given
126.96.36.199.1 A stronger emphasis on the welfare state
188.8.131.52.2 A tendency to eat as a family
184.108.40.206.3 A lower legal age for alcohol consumption
220.127.116.11.4 A more liberal attitude
to nudity in the media
18.104.22.168.5 Generally not in favour of capital punishment
22.214.171.124.1 Individual provision for healthcare and education
126.96.36.199.2 Greater prevalence of fast food
188.8.131.52.3 Shopping malls rather than high streets and outdoor shopping areas