628612
Description
Mind Map by cristian velez, updated more than 1 year ago
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Created by cristian velez
almost 12 years ago
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CHANCE
&
CHOICE
- gambler fallacy: each possible outcome will
occur the average number of times in each
series of trials
- heuristic: general strategy for solving
a problem or coming to a decision
- representativ heur: bad hand
- availability heur: more available to our minds
- availability heur: more available to our minds
- representativ heur: bad hand
- a priori vs statistical
- RULE 1: NEGATION. The probability that an event will not occur is 1
minus the probability that it will occur. Symbolically: Pr(not h) = 1- Pr(h)
- RULE 2: CONJUNCTION WITH INDEPENDENCE. Given two independent events,
the probability of their both occurring is the product of their individual probabilities.
- Symbolically (where h 1 and h 2 are independent): Pr(h 1 & h 2 ) = Pr(h 1 ) × Pr(h 2 )
- Symbolically (where h 1 and h 2 are independent): Pr(h 1 & h 2 ) = Pr(h 1 ) × Pr(h 2 )
- RULE 2G: CONJUNCTION IN GENERAL (dependent): Given two events, the probability
of their both occurring is the probability of the first occurring times the
CONDITIONAL probability of the second occurring, given that the first has occurred.
- Symbolically: Pr(h 1 & h 2 )= Pr(h 1 ) × Pr(h 2 |h 1 )
- PERMUTATION: ordered sets
- Symbolically: Pr(h 1 & h 2 )= Pr(h 1 ) × Pr(h 2 |h 1 )
- RULE 3: DISJUNCTION WITH EXCLUSIVITY. The probability that at least one of two mutually
EXCLUSIVE events will occur is the sum of the probabilities that each of them will occur.
- . Symbolically (where h 1 and h 2 are mutually exclusive):
Pr(h 1 or h 2 ) = Pr(h 1 ) + Pr(h 2 )
- . Symbolically (where h 1 and h 2 are mutually exclusive):
Pr(h 1 or h 2 ) = Pr(h 1 ) + Pr(h 2 )
- RULE 3G: DISJUNCTION IN GENERAL(including BOTH). The probability that AT LEAST one of two events will occur is the sum
of the probabilities that each of them will occur, minus the probability that they will both occur.
- Symbolically: Pr(h 1 or h 2 ) = Pr(h1 ) + Pr(h2 ) – Pr(h1 &(x) h2 )
- COMBINATION: not specified order: se aplica cada combinacion por separado y se suman (disjunction)
- si pueden ocurrir los 2 repetidos, podria
dar 1, lo cual es imposible(100% certeza)
- Symbolically: Pr(h 1 or h 2 ) = Pr(h1 ) + Pr(h2 ) – Pr(h1 &(x) h2 )
- RULE 4: SERIES WITH INDEPENDENCE. The probability that an event will occur at least once in a series of
independent trials is 1 minus the probability that it will not occur in that number of trials.
- Symbolically (where n is the number of independent
trials): Pr(h at least once in n trials) = 1 – Pr(NOT h) n
- TAKEN FROM RULE 1&2
- TAKEN FROM RULE 1&2
- ONLY ONE EVENT ONCE in a serie
- AT LEAST ONE + OPPOSITE CONJUNCTION = 1
- Symbolically (where n is the number of independent
trials): Pr(h at least once in n trials) = 1 – Pr(NOT h) n
- INDEPENDENT: probability of one doesnt affects the other prob.
- EXCLUSIVITY; cant occur both
- EXCLUSIVITY; cant occur both
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