Tectonic Hazard Management: Case Studies

Tectonic Hazard Management: Case Studies

1. Bam, 2003

   • 6.6Mw, 9.0 MMI
     • Earthquake struck on 26th December 2003 at 05:26 local time
     • 2 strong foreshocks felt on December 25th, and another 30 minutes beforehand
   • 75,000 displaced persons, 31,000 killed, 30,000 injured
     • Nearly all who did were in buildings less than 30 years old.
       • Nearly 90% of buildings in Bam (25,000 buildings) and Baravat (4000 buildings) were destroyed
         • A large percentage of villages within a 10km radius suffered 60-100% destruction
       • Infrastructure moderately damaged, to become generally operational soon after the quake and support a delayed emergency response
     • Estimated cost: $32.7 million, up to $1.5bn with indirect costs
     • No organised rubble removal effort, and thus no search and rescue teams present within the first 24 hours
       • Locals largely responsible for immediate relief effort
       • Destruction of emergency service premises and municipal communications buildings prevented local emergency response
     • $645 million in loans and grants distributed by December 2005, benefitting14,000 households.
       • Another $445 million allocated for 2006 from Iran's national development program
       • 40 countries sent aid following the quake, and the UN raised $7 million
         • Almost $131 million had been donated by March 2005

2. Northridge, 1994

   • 6.7Mw, 9.0 MMI
     • Quake struck at 04:34 local time on 17th January
     • Long history of earthquakes in the region
       • 7.8 Mw quake killed 3,000 in San Francisco, 1906.
     • Fault responsible not previously mapped.
   • 20,000 homeless, 60 killed, 7,000 injured
     • $20bn in damage, the costliest seismic disaster in US history
       • Significant damage in Fillmore, Glendale, Santa Clarita, Santa Monica, Simi Valley, Western and central Los Angeles
         • Fires in the San Fernando Valley and at Malibu and Venice
         • Collapse sections of freeway, famously the Santa Monica Freeway
         • 12,000 structures damagd
     • 80,000-125,000 permanently displaced due to damage to homes
     • Major building collapse prevented though use of counterweights, cross-braces and shock absorbers in skyscrapers
       • Further building regulations introduced to improve future safety.
       • The Grate Shakeout has been running in California since 2008, attracting 9.4 million participants in 2012
     • Fast emergency response due to prepared plans of action
       • Dams, hospitals, industrial facilities and fuel storage facilities took priority.

3. Haiti, 2010

   • 7.0Mw
     • Earthquake occurred at 16:53 local time on 1st January
       • 59 aftershocks of magnitude 4.5 or greater recorded by USGS
         • 16 over magnitude 5.0,highest of 6.0Mw
   • 1.3 million displaced persons, 100,000-316,000 dead, 300,000 injured
     • 97,294 houses destroyed and 188,383 destroyed in the Port au Prince area and southern Haiti
       • 4,000 schools damaged or destroyed
       • 60% of government//administrative buildings, 80% of schools in Port au Prince, 60% in south and west departments, destroyed or damaged
       • 19 million cubic metres of rubble, enough to fill a line of shipping containers from London to Beirut
     • 3.5 million affected
       • 1.5 million living in camps at peak, 100,000 at critical risk from storms or flooding
     • 25% of civil servants killed
     • Response greatly relianton international help
       • International agencies, countries and NGOs funded relief efforts, sent equipment and personnel
       • 3.6bn USD pledged by the international community following the quake
         • 1 year on, there was still over 1bn in requirements for various projects
         • 4 years on, the UN estimates 817,000 Haitians still in need of aid.
           • Poor living conditions, and risk of eviction from remaining 106 camps
           • Food insecurity, malnutrition and cholera still major issues
           • Some progress made: 89% have left camps, cholera dropped by 50%, and ability of local authorities to respond has improved according to Oxfam.
   • Haiti remarkably vulnerable to any hazard event
     • Ranked 145/169 in HDI. 70% of the population living on <2USD/day
       • 86% in Port au Prince living in slum conditions. Densely packed, poorly built concrete constructions
         • 50% with no access to latrines, 66% no access to tap water
         • Cholera outbreak in October 2010 caused massive challenges to aid response
     • No central financial control of ministries
       • 30% absenteeism in civil service

4. Nyiragongo, 2002

   • VEI: 1
     • Intermittent eruptions and periods of activity since 1928
     • 13 days prior to eruption, tremors were felt at Rusayo village, 5km south of Nyiragongo
       • 10 days prior to eruption, the GVO and CRSN forecast the potential for an eruption, and vulnerability of the cities of Goma and Sake to lava flows
       • Tremors felt in the Goma and Gesenyi areas for a further 3 months, causing collapse of several buildings
     • Main eruption began at 08:35 local time on January 17th, 2002
       • Large amounts of lava emitted from 3 spatter cones, creating very fluid lava
         • Large amounts of CO2 emitted, contributing to many fatalities
         • Exceptionally long fissures reaching the outskirts of Goma created 3 lava trails
         • Lava reached 2m deep in downtown Goma
   • 400,000 evacuated, 147 deaths, 400 injuries
     • Estimated 4,500 buildings in Goma (40%) collapsed and/or were buried by lava
       • 2 of 4 hospitals, 3 of 11 health centres, 80 out of 150 pharmacies buried
       • 80% of airstrip at Goma airport covered
       • 90% of Goma's business district buried. This was one of the only functioning business regions in the eastern DRC.
     • Only 2 seismographs on site and 1 large eruption in 1977 to refer to.
       • Weeks before eruption, volcanologists could only tell authorities the volcano was restless
         • False alarm in 1994 magnified the issue
         • Conclusive data could have kick started authorities.
       • 4 new seismometers donated from France and USA to prevent future disasters.

5. Pinatubo, 1991

   • VEI: 6.0 (2nd largest in 20th century)
     • Several quakes preceding the eruption, and powerful steam explosions
       • Through April, May and June 1991, 1000s tonnes of SO2 emited
     • Main explosion on June 15th 1991.
       • Ash cloud rose to 35km, spread by a coincidental typhoon
         • Reduced global temperatures 05-0.6 celcius
       • Surrounding land blanketed by ash and pumice
         • A blanket of at least 1cm covered the entire island of Luzon
       • Pyroclastic flows created debris as deep as 200m
     • Weak explosions continued until September 1991
   • 200,000 evacuated, 450 killed, 4 injured
     • 4,979 homes destroyed and 70,257 damaged, mainly as a result of lahars.
       • Structures of the 2 largest US military bases severely damaged by the weight of ash fall.
     • A warning from the USGS and PHIVOLCS saved an estimated 5,000 lives and $250 million in property damage
     • Commercial aircraft warned of ash cloud, but as much as $100 million was sustained in damage by those planes flying too close
     • Estimated cost: $500 million

6. Mt Etna, 2002

   • Max VEI recorded: 3
     • Current activity consists of continuos summit degassing, explosive Stombolian eruptions, frequent basaltic lava flows
     • Major eruptions between 26th October-28th January 2003
     • Series of earthquakes up to 4.3 on the Richter scale during November 2002.
       • Clouds of ash and gas emitted. Travelled as far south as Libya, and Kefalonia, Greece
       • Lava flows threatened Rifugio Sapienze between 20th and 21st November.
   • 1,000 evacuated, 32 injured, 0 killed
     • $8 million in damage
       • 300 businesses directly affected
     • Catania airport closed for 4 days
     • Skiing season unable to begin. Sloped engulfed by lava
       • 1 restaurant, 3 chair lifts and 100s of acres of forest destroyed.
     • State of emergency declared
       • Army used bulldozers to break tarmac and build barriers around populated areas
         • Efforts made to divert lava away from scientific station at foot of Etna
         • Channels dug to divert lava away from Linguaglossa
       • Ship equipped with medical clinic harbored off Catania as a precaution
       • Tax breaks given to help locals through crisis

7. Indian Ocean, 2004

   • Tsunami generated by 9.1Mw quake
     • 00:58 GMT (07:58 Thailand time)
     • Max wave height: 50.9m
     • 18 countries affected across the Indian Ocean region
   • 226,898 killed, over 500,000 injured
     • Up to 5 million lost homes, or access to food and water
     • Spread of cholera, dysentery and diptheria due to contaminated water and tropical climate
     • Loss of coastal fisheries and tourism industries
     • Largenumber of orphans
     • Over 7bn USD donated in aid
       • Help with damage to infrastructure, shortages of food and water
       • More than 160 aid agencies and the UN began to operate in Indonesia to provide food, shelter and schooling
       • 1 year on, 60,000 still living in tents
     • Providing sanitation and clean drinking water primary goals
     • No warning system in the Indian Ocean prior to disater. Most were unaware of the Tsunami
       • Lack of communications networks to convey any warnings
         • Earthquake picked up by Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre in Hawaii, but despite calls, the message was not transferered
       • Local populations unaware of the signs of an impending tsunami
         • 10 yr old British girl credited with saving over 100 lives after recognisingsigns and telling people to get off the beach
       • Tsunami warning system approved by the UN in January 2005, and funded internationally
         • Cost: $20 million
         • First buoy laid in the Indian Ocean in late 2006, funded by USA. System now fully operational

8. Tohoku, 2011

   • Tsunami generated by 9.0 Mw quake
     • Event recorded at 14:46 local time on 11th March
     • Several foreshocks beginning March 9th with a 7.2 Mw quake, 40km from March 11th epicentre.
     • Epicentre located in the Pacific Ocean, near Honshu, East Japan
   • 130,927 displaced persons, 15,550 deaths, 5,344 missing, 5,314 injured
     • 332,395 buildings, 2,125 roads, 56 bridges, 26 railways destroyed or damaged
       • Fukushima Daichi plant suffered severe damage, leading to the worst nuclear disaster since Chernobyl, 1986
         • 20km exclusion zone enforced, evacuating 150,000
         • Massive opposition to nuclear power resulted. By Jan 2012, 90% of nuclear reactors were offline
     • Economic loss: 309bn USD
     • Pacific warning system gave little time to react due to proximityof epicentre to land
       • Warnings given to 50 countreis
         • Damage minimal outside of Japan.
         • Hawaii had 5 hrs warning.
         • Coastguard on hand in California as a precaution
       • Tsunami defences overwhelmed by size of wave
     • Relief provided by Japanese government, emergency services and military
       • $87 million donated in aid within 7 days from around the globe
         • Governments sent medical staff, SAR teams, food, equipment and military help
           • US operation "Tomodachi" involved navy, air force and 2 urban SAR teams

9. Other Examples

   • Mt Kelud, Indonesia, Feb 2014: 3 die from roof collapse after ash fall
   • Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia, November 1985: Volcanic eruption predicted, and evacuation advice given by seismologists and NGOs, but the message wasnot effectively communicated
     • Most caught unaware: 23,000 killed
     • Total cost: $7.7bn, 20% of Colombian GDP at the time
   • Vesuvius, Italy: Plans drawn up in 1995 to evacuate 600,000 in the region in the event of a volcanic eruption
     • Avoiding panic is key
     • Seawater used to cool lava upon eruption of Eldfell, Iceland, 1973
   • Ash clouds: BA009 almost creashed on 24th June 1982 following the eruption of Mt Galunggung, Indonesia
     • European airspace closed as a precaution for 8 days in 2010 after the eruption of Eyjafjallajokull, Iceland
   • Tangshan earthquake, China, 1976: 80% of those buried by rubble were rescued because they knew to get under tables and chairs