(13) How can we explain voter behaviour?

(13) How can we explain voter behaviour?

1. Part affiliation:

   • Partisanship - following a particular party
     • 12/15 presidential elections the party that managed to gain the highest level of support from its own identifiers was the party that won the election
     • E.g. 2004 89% Dems voted Kerry, 93% Reps voted Bush.
     • 25-30% of electorate are independent voters - voters who do not identify with either party
     • Mustn't see independent voters are simple group
     • Might be 5 reasons for independent voting:
       • 25% disengaged - do not care with Party gets into power. Seem happy with the status quo
       • 24% disguised partisans - Tend to vote consistently with one party. But are not registered as either Democrat nor Republican as they may occasionally vote for an Independent candidate
       • 18% Deliberators - classic swing voters
       • 18% Disillusioned - very little faith in government and 2 party system
       • 16% Dislocated - tend to describe themselves as socially liberal and fiscally conservative. Will tend to vote for candidates (Either from 2 parties or independents) who represent these values

2. Gender

   • Women more likely to vote Democrat than men Between 1964 to 2000
   • Gender Gap - Women and Men vote in different ways
   • Reason for Gender Gap - connected to policy differences.
   • In major policy areas
     • Abortion
     • Defence
     • Law and order
     • Gun control
     • Women's rights
   • Women support Dem policies

3. Race

   • Most significant group = African - American and Hispanics
   • African - Americans (AA) most likely to vote Dem:
     • Dem President Johnson and Kennedy persuaded Congress to pass civil rights laws that protected civil rights in these areas:
       • Housing
       • Employment
       • Education
       • Voting
     • Between 1980-2008 A-A never gave less than 83% support to Dem candidates
     • Even during Clinton's impeachment trial A-A's were the most loyal supporters
   • Growing group = Hispanics
     • 16% of total population and rising
     • Young group so full-potential yet to show - group to watch and a group which politicians will be canvassing heavily
     • Not a unified group - from very diverse areas ( e.g. Mexico vs Cuba)
     • Voted Bush in 2000 election why
       • Brother Jeb Bush married to Hispanic
       • G W Bush fluent in Spanish
       • Bush directly campaign to Hispanic group - socially conservative policies e.g. Anti-Abortion etc
       • 20% increase in Republican support was seen
     • Obama holds greatest Hispanic vote in 2012 election 71% vs 27% to Romney why?
       • Immigration reform
       • Republican rhetoric and platform based on deportation of illegal immigrants
       • No campaigning of Hispanics from Republicans
     • Hispanic voting patterns seem to go counter to Hispanic Demographic e.g. lower income, Socially conservative, divided on abortion laws.

4. Religion = Protestant vs Catholic voters

   • Protestant = Republican
     • Socially conservsative
     • Fiscally conservative
   • Catholic = Democratic
     • Socially responsibility
     • Fiscally responsibility
     • HOWEVER , Democrat stance on abortion is causing problems for Catholic base. Starting to see decline in Catholic voters following 2004 elections ( Bush won 52% of Catholic votes)
   • Michael Barrone: "American Two Nations of different faiths"
     • Tradition-minded morally liberal
     • Liberation-minded morally liberal
   • In 2008 election religion was not a major player - none of the candidates was a "born-again evangelical"
   • However, in 2012 election religion played a key part. Romney gained 78% of white evangelical Christian votes + 63% of those who attended religious services more than once a week
     • Could be due to Tea Party movement and the rise in social conservatives the Republican party - think Rick Santorum etc.
     • Hispanic becoming more important in this debate as increasing number of Protestants and declining Catholics

5. Age - Quite difficult to identify long-term trends

   • Rising American Electorate (RAE) = Hispanics, single parent families, unmarried women and people under 30
   • Going to become a key demographic
   • 60% of those under 30 and 52% of those under 45 voted for Obama - making up 46% of all voters
   • 2008 - 2012 sees less young voters and less young voters voting Obama
     • Perhaps Obama went out of fashion - Yes we can

6. Wealth - Michael Barone - "man does not vote on bread alone" - wealth only part of the bigger picture

   • Traditionally Wealthy have voted Democrat - ficsally liberal
   • Traditionally less well off voted Republican - fiscally conservative
   • However, Obama (2008) appealed to most economic groups with emphasis on financial reform of banks (credit crunch)
   • Obama still popular in 2012 with richest segments of society

7. Region - shifting between two parties

   • Democrats traditionally South
   • Today - North Eastern states
   • Republicans traditionally North
   • Today - Southern states
   • Why
     • South becoming more socially conservative
     • Populations declining in North Eastern state

8. Population areas

   • High-density tend to vote Democrat, sparsely populated areas vote Republians
     • Suburbs are the battleground in elections because the voters are not decided
     • Live in the city exposed to a variy of views
     • Living in rural not exposed to lots of divers people, less sympatheticto liberal views

9. Policies

   • E.g. Economy - Clinton 92
   • E.g. Change - Obama 08
   • E.g. Foreign policy post 9/11 - GW Bush 04
   • E.g. immigration 2012
     • Swung to Dem over Hispanic
   • Dems Affirmative action, redistribution of wealth, welfare fights, reform of criminal system

10. States

    • Centre likely to vote Republican
    • West and north coast Democrat
    • 50 : 50 election most states are safe apart form FL, CO, VA, NV
    • The south use to vote Dem but with the Dem Kenny support equal right they swung to Repub

11. WASP White Anglo-Saxon Protestant vote Republican