(17) Electoral Collage

(17) Electoral Collage

1. Not President vote elected by the people - in directly

2. GE election campaign

   • End of "intra-party" start of "inter-party" campaign
   • Begins on Labour Day 1st Monday in Sept
   • Runs 8-9 weeks
   • TV debates, tours of states with high no. of Election College votes or "Swing States"

3. EC - how it works

   • Each state awarded set no. of elecotal collge votes, e.g Cal 55, Nev 4
   • No. of ECVs matches no. of seats that state has in Congress
   • Total of 538 ECVs
   • Candidates must win absolute majority (270 or more)
   • Winner takes all process, ie. candidate with largest share of votes in each state takes all the ECVs in that state
   • Why the foundering fathers choice vote because it would have prevented mob rule

4. Worse case scenarios

   • VP announces result
   • If no clear majority, president elected by House of Representatives ( each state having one vote, i.e. 50 votes in total
   • Winner would gain 26 votes
   • Balloting continues until majority achieved

5. Strenghts and weakness of the EC

   • Strenghts
     • Preserves the voice of the small-population states
       • The small-population states, as in 1787, still worry, were that EC to be abolished, the votes of their inhabitants would become almost worthless, swept aside by the size of such states California, Texas, New York and Florida
       • If this was a concern in 1787, it should be even more of a concern now. In the first presidential election, held in 1788, of the 13 states that took part, the part, the smallest had 3 Electoral College vote while the largest - Virginia - Had 12: that is, four times as many as states such as Wyoming and Alaska with just 3.
     • Usually promotes a two-horse race, therefore winner is likely to receive more than 50% of the popular vote
       • This is important in an election for the president, who is both chief executive and head of state - symbol more than 50% of the popular vote, a definite aid to uniting the nation
       • In 26 of the 38 elections held between 1864 and 2012 - that is, over two-thirds - the winner gained more than 50% of the popular vote. But there of the 12 election in which this did not occur were 1992, 1996 and 2000
   • Weakness
     • Small-population are over-represented
       • By 2012 Calif had 55 EC votes representing its 37 million inhabitians. Wyoming had 3 representing its half-a-million inhabitiants.
       • Thus Calif recives one EC vote for every 675,000 people. Wyoming receives one EC vote for every 185,000 people. Put another, if California were to receive EC votes on the same basis as Wyoming, it would have not 55 EC votes but 200.
     • Winner-takes all system can distort the result
       • Clinton 94 got 49% of p vote but 70% of EC votes
       • In 2012, Obama's 51% of the P vote was translated into 61.1% of EC vote
       • Possible win the P vote can lose EC vote
         • Happened only 3 times
         • 2000, Al Gore won 48.4% of P vote to Bush 48% but Bush won the EC vote with 271
     • Possible for a candidate to lose the popular vote but win the Electoral Collage
     • Unfair to national third parties
       • 6.6% voted for indep John Anderson in 1980
       • 1992, Indep Ross Perot won 18.9% of P vote
         • 96 He went for the Reform Party Cad and won 8.5% of Vote
       • 2000, Green party Ralph Nader won 2.9% of votes
         • Non of these cad won a sign EC vote
       • George Wallace 13.5% of P vote and Won 5 states in the deep south gain 45 ECVs
     • "Rougue" or "faithless" Electors
       • Many state require there Electors to follow the P vote, but some don't meaning they could case it some other way
       • Washington DC Elector refused to case a vote for Al Gore in protest
     • Potenial problems regarding system to be used if Elecoral College is deadlock
       • At the bigging of the Republic, when political parties in the way they are understood today did not truly exist, it did not matter if the president and v-p were of diffrent parties, as a result of the system used in the case of EC deadlock
       • In 2000 it was certainly possible that the House could have chosen Bush as president and the senate could have Dem Joseph lieberman as V-P

6. Possible reforms

   • Maine system
     • Votes allocate according to Congressional districts (similar to constituencies) and 2 additonal votes for winning states
     • But - result only marginally different and sometimes less proportionate
   • Allocation of EC votes in prportion to popular vote
     • Faier to third and smaller parties
     • But less likely one candidate would gain a clear majority
     • Would require setting of a threshold to limite unelctorat ee
   • Automatic plan - abolishing elecors and making allocation of votes automatic
   • Direct Elecion plan - popular with voters 61% but increase likehood of recounts such as Florida, 2000