US Elections

US Elections

1. Primaries and Caucuses

   • Advantages
     • Increased opportunities for participation
       • New Hampshire - First primary in the season
       • Iowa - First caucus of the season
     • Tests candidates stamina on fund-raising skills
       • Ron Paul gained $6m in donations in 24hrs via the internet for the R primary
     • Outsiders emerge and build momentum
       • Obama in 2008; Carter in 1976; Trump in 2016
         • Trump won 304 electoral votes
     • Improves old and corrupt system
       • 1960s - ’smoke-filled’ rooms with party bosses who chose the candidate.
   • DIsadvantages
     • Long: Voter fatigue
       • Iowa caucuses in 2015/16 achieved a combined turnout of less than 16%
     • Inexperienced president
       • Trump 2016; Former wealthy real estate developer and reality television star
     • May affect current jobs
       • Trump: 2020 R primary and was still President (coronavirus)
         • 2020 primary: Trump won all but one delegate vote

2. National nominating conventions

   • Creating party unity
     • 2020: Kamala Harris endorsed Biden
     • Purely ceremonial
       • Meryl Streep - Democrats in 2016
   • Often held in swing states (potentially to make a head start on voters)
     • 2020: Democrat Nominating Convention in Wisconsin (FiveThirtyEight - Swing state)
   • Short-term boost in poll ratings
     • Trump and Clinton received a short-term boost in the polls of around 4%

3. Electoral College

   • Advantages
     • Federal nature (state focussed campaigning)
       • Vermont, and Wyoming - 3 electors; California - 55 electors
         • 2020: Bernie and Biden planned rallies in Cleveland
           • Cancelled due to Covid-19
     • Guarantees certainty/mandate to the outcome of the election
       • Nixon (1968) and Clinton (1992) both received 43% of the popular vote
       • In 227 years, the winner of the popular vote has lost the electoral vote 5 times.
     • Prevents "tyranny of the majority"
       • FF (Hamilton): "not perfect, it is at least excellent"
       • Safeguard against uneducated voters by putting the final decision in the hands of electors
         • 64% of white non-college graduates voted Trump
   • Disadvantages
     • Smaller states are over-represented
       • Vermont, and Wyoming - 3 electors; California - 55 electors
     • Winner of the popular vote can fail to be elected president
       • 2016, Clinton won 3m more than Trump but lost by 232 to 306
       • There were 7 faithless electors in 2016
     • Neglects safe states
       • Maine - Republican Florida - Swing state
     • Public opinion
       • Politico: 34% prefer electoral college
   • Reforms
     • Use the same system and base the outcome of the public’s vote
       • Maine and Nebraska use Congressional District
       • Politico: 34% prefer electoral college
     • Electors have to be pledged and must vote with their state
       • There were 7 faithless electors in 2016
     • Redistribute Electoral College votes
       • California - 55 electors

4. Direct Democracy

   • Advantages
     • Enhance voter turnout
       • In 2016, Nebraska saw a referendum to veto the recent abolition of the death penalty and had a record turnout of 831,000
     • Recall elections increase accountability
       • Scott Walker, a governor of Wisconsin was recalled in 2012 but remained
     • Increase political participation
       • 2012 Scott Walker recall received more than 1m signatures
   • Disadvantages
     • Limited to constitution
       • Florida Ban on Rifles/Shotguns Initiative (2022)
     • Tyranny of the majority
       • Colorado Medical Use of Marijuana (2000) - 54% Yes - 46% No
     • Expensive
       • 2018 - Florida (2 Initiatives) - $9m

5. Voting behaviour

   • Race
     • 88% of African Americans voted Democrat
   • Sexual Orientation
     • 78% of the LGBT community voted Democrat
   • Religion
     • 81% of white evangelical christians supported Trump
   • Media
     • Debates
       • 51% said it was the most important factor; 49% said it wasn't a factor
     • Social Media
       • Trump's tweets were retweeted 6,000 time compared to Clinton's tweet 1,500
         • 56% 18-24 yr olds - Clinton
     • Print
       • New Yorker - Democrat
         • 33% of Americans get news from news websites, 16% - Print newspapers

6. Campaign Finance

   • Success
     • Raised: Trump - $647m; Clinton - $1,191m
   • Pressure Group connections
     • NRA - $30m+ on Trump’s 2016 election
   • Allows for participation from supporters
     • 2016: Trump - $87m (small donations)

7. Mid-term trends

   • Incumbency
     • 2018 - 91% (House)
   • High turnout
     • 2018-49%, 2014-36%
   • Divided government
     • 2018: Executive - Trump (R), Senate (R), House (D)
     • 2014: Executive - Obama (D), Senate (D), House (R)

8. Turnout

   • Swing/Safe state
     • 2016: Hawaii (D) - 43%; Minnesota - 74%
   • Age
     • 2016: 71% 65+; 46%18-29
   • Gender
     • 2016: Men - 63%, Women - 59%