Topic 1 Population in Transition

Topic 1 Population in Transition

1. Population Change

   • Keywords:
     • CBR
     • CDR
     • IMR
     • CMP
     • Fertility Rate
     • Life Expectancy
     • Population Pyramids
       • Population momentum
       • Population projections
     • Analyse population pyramids

2. Global population change

   • The global population has grown exponentially
     • Africa has the highest growth
     • South America, Asia, Europe and North America has grown very little
   • It will level off around 12 billion
     • Effects
       • 1. Pressure on governments to provide their population
       • 2. Presure on the environment
       • 3. Greater risk of famine and malnutrition
       • 4. Greater disparities between MEDC's and LEDC's
   • Reasons for indents/ bulges/ tall/ short pyramids
     • 1. High/ Low birth rate or death rate
     • 2. High/ Low Life expectancy
     • 3. Baby boom
     • 4. Government policies (pro-/anti-natalist)
     • 5. Immigration/ Emigration
     • 6. Communities of certain types of people (elder, women, economically active)
   • Factors that affect high birth rates
     • 1. Primary Economy
     • 2. Traditional female role
     • 3. Lack of education
     • 4. Need for children caring for elderly
     • 5. Large families
     • 6. Pro-nalist policies
     • 7. Youthful marriages, this is when, in some societies ,where young women are married off by their parents to a man whom is much older and has usually more money than the child bride.
   • Factors that affect low birth rate
     • 1. Availabilityofcontraceptives
     • 2. Goodeducation
     • 3. Low IMR/CMR
     • 4. Femaleemancipation
     • 5. By Delaying Marriage ,the amount of time for the increasing in wealth for the child increases. This therefore will mean that by the time the child comes the money is more sufficient and there is no need for a couple to have more children to support themselves
     • 6. Developedeconomy
     • 7. Bettercarefordependents
   • Fertility rates
     • Keywords:
       • Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
     • 1. Highest (TFR)
       • Sub-Suharian Africa between 6.8 and 7.0
       • 3. In the MEDC's the fertility rate is between 1.0 and 2.0
     • 2. Northen and Southern Arica, Mexico, South and East Asia, and northern region of south America all have fertility rates between 3.0 and 4.0
     • Factors affect high/ low fertility rate
       • 1. Urbanisation
         • Family planning
       • 2. Culture/ Tradition
       • 3. Healthcare
       • 4. Importance of children
       • 5. Education/ enploynment opportunities for women
       • 6. IMR (a country may have a high TFR but also their IMR can be pretty high)
       • 7. Average age of marriage
       • 8. Availability for abortions and contraceptives
   • Life Expectancy
     • Is the average number years a person is expected to live from birth if demographics stays the same
     • Life expectancy is higher in MEDCs than in LEDCs
       • In Sub- Saharans the life expectancy is the lowest (around 41.4-50.8 years)
       • In North America the life expectancy is highest (around 57.9-71.6)
     • Factos affect Life Expectancy
       • 1. Age
       • 2. Sex
       • 3. Residence
       • 4. Occupation
       • 5. Nourishment
       • 6. Accommodation
       • 7. Literacy

3. Responses to High/ Low Fertility

   • Dependancy and Ageing Ratios
     • Dependancy Ratios
       • 1. Dependent population
       • 2. Population below 15 and 86
       • 3. Very crude due to different ages of economically active in different countries/ regions and cultures
       • 4. Useful measure to compares countries or to track changes
       • 5. High portions of elderly in MEDCs
       • 6. High proportion go youthful in LEDCs
       • 7. Often displayed on a triangular graph
     • Ageing Ratios
       • 1. Number of people aged 65+ for every 100 people aged 20-64
       • 2. Europe -25 of world's 25 oldest countries
       • 3. Varies widely from 6 per 100 people workers in Kenya to 33 in Italy and Japan
   • Impacts of Youthful and Ageing Population
     • Impact of Ageing Population
       • Advantages
         • 1. Experienced workforces
         • 2 Larger market for some goods
         • 3. More higher educated people
         • 4. Indicate good health care systems
         • 5. Construction/ employment market for retirement/ health facilities
         • 6. Jobs created in aged care
       • Disadvantages
         • 1. Expensive for government and taxpayers
         • 2. Health care, nursing houses
         • 3, Young workers employed to care for elderly
         • 5. Starin on health care
         • 6. High dependency ratio
         • 7. Industries migrate overseas
         • 8. Depletion of labour force
         • 9. Trade deficit
     • Impact of Youthful Population
       • Advantages
         • 1. Stronger workforce
         • 2. Large, cheap, future workforce
         • 3. Provides more schools, health care centres can improve rest of population
         • 4. Lower death rate
         • 5. Youthful = healthy, less strain on healthcare system
         • 6. Attrack new investment
         • 7. Larger market for some goods
         • 8. Greater innovation
       • Disadvantages
         • 1. More adults out of workforce to take care of children
         • 2. Less skilled trainers to train new workers
         • 3. Usually indicates poor health/ health services
         • 4. Specialised infrastructure required: Schools children hospitals, child care facilities, sport/ recreation
         • 5. Competitive future job market, difficult to find jobs
         • 6. Strain on education facilities
         • 7. Starin food supplies
         • 8. Trends on higher rate
         • 9. High decency ratio

4. Case 3. Differentiation

   • Pro-natalist Singapore
     • 1. Before 1986, Singapore was slowly trying to reduce the over all numbers of births occurring .The number was extremely high, at around 7 average babies per woman, this number was very high.
     • 2. By having this extremely high number ,this led to a concern that was portrayed towards tothe people of Singapore, which led to the introduction of programmes to help to control the birth rate
     • 3. 1957: 1 .47 million population with a fertility rate of 6.4 Births per woman
     • 4 In 1965: Singapore became independent leading to a Fertility Rate of 4.8
     • 5. Early 1980's :some concern from SINGAPOREAN GOVERNMENT WITH FALLING BIRTH RATE (BR)
     • 6. 1986 THE GOVERNMENT COMPLETELY REVERSED THE POLICY
   • Anti-natalist China (one child policy)
     • 1. China create this policy, which limited each family tone child,regardless off being Maleor Female. Though many citizens would have preferred a boy due to cultural reason
     • 2. This started in 1 978.
     • 3. If the policy was not introduced, the population would have been 1.5 billion 2001 rather than 2005
     • 4. The most dramatic decrease in the fertility rate, from 5.9 to 2.9, occurred between 1970and 1979

5. Migration

   • Is the movement of people, involving a permanent (more than 1 ) year of residence it can be internal or external and a voluntary or forced
   • General Push and Pull factors
     • Voluntary Migration
     • Forced Migration
     • Barrier's to leaving /arriving
     • Return Migration
   • Main trens in Migration
     • 2. Acceleration of migration
     • 1. Globalisation of migrant labour
     • 3. Differentiation of migration in different types
     • 4. FEMINAZATION females become more emancipated
   • Case studies
     • Polish workers UK (MEDC to MEDC Migration)
       • 1.

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