Ageing population and population structure

Ageing population and population structure

1. Rural vs Urban

   • LEDC's
     • In Peru and Zambia nearly half the population are in the youngest age group 0-15 (46% in Peru& 48% in Zambia) this is much less in urban areas only 1/3 and the oldest age group is more than twice as high
   • Case Studies
     • Peru has a lower percentage of people aged 0-15 in Lima the capital and Apurimac 23.5 males and 22.4 females and has a higher number of females in the city of Lima than expected as they may leave the villages in search of a better life in Lima as the job available in the city are often in service and the retail industry.

2. Social Effects

   • an increasing number of active people in early old age will begin to find their political feet and affect decision making.
   • A high concentration of young males in overcrowded cities is likely to increase crime
     • In china the female imbalance at likely time of marriage will worsen and make it hard to find wives
   • There is a large amount of global evidence to show that the elderly are increasingly the victims of neglect, violence and abuse.
   • Elderly are migrating either abroad to warm countries, specialist care accoidation or to small seaside towns

3. Economic Effects

   • Dependency ratio
     • This is the ratio between the economically active and the depedent population
       • in MEDC's have a dependency ratio of between 50-70 and in developing countries this may be over 100
     • It takes no account for the sick or unemployment supported by the state and the fact in most MEDC's you have to stay in education past the age of 15.
   • in MEDC's later retirement is an option due to increased levels of health in 65-70 and the decline in number of traditional working age
   • The likely decrease in state provision will encourage more pepple to make their own arrangements for a comfortable retirement.
   • in LEDC's or NIC's education provision is likely to be severly strected which means a higher proportion of children will receive little or no schooling
   • the 114 million million school places needed in china from 1991-1995 a massive shift in the number of school places which need more teachers and more buildings and other resources
   • As the economically active and taxes goes down a point is reached when income cannot keep pace of the expenditure on welfare for the elderly.
   • there are shortages in the skills and labour jobs as employers are relucant to hire 'grey' labour'

4. DTM

   • There is a group of of countries where fertility is below replacement level so populations are ageing fast and shrinking. if the trends in both birth rate and death rate continues in China a Japense person may become an 'endangered species' there culture means they dislikes immigrants and they want to keep the gene pool pure.
     • By 2100 japan's population will be halved if this continues