Uncertainty vid 1

Uncertainty vid 1

1. 6 sided die

   • 1-6
     • • random number generator
         • equally likely to land on any surface
           • this makes it a FAIR die
   • probabllity
     • pr (even number) is 3/6
       • Pr (an outcome)= no. of (equally likely)) ways of getting THAT outcome/ number of possible outcomes
         • probabliity based on relative frequency of event in question
     • number of ways of getting event relative to no of ways of conducting exp

2. Odds

   • no of ways that give u event of interest relative to no of ways that DONT
     • SO IN A DIE
       • pe(6)= 1/6
       • odds of (6)= 1/5

3. LONG RUN PATTERN

   • toss thousand times and see if probability estimates are the same as the ones calculates
     • called statistical distributions
     • or use spreadsheet to simulate the tossing of the die
       • =RAND()....this generates random number between 0-1
         • repeat by pressing F9 to mimic tossing die
           • to convert it to a number obtained from tossing die
             • devide into 6th
               • =if(B1<1/6,1,If(B1<2/6,2,if(B!<3/6,3,if(B1<4/6,4 etc etc (close off all brackets)
         • then count how many of each
           • =COUNTIF(c1:c20,1)
             • CHANGE TO ABSOLUTE REF
               • change range to $C$1:$C$20 and change the vcalue 1 to the block with the number
         • oserved estimate = how many of a number is observed/ how many attempts to ACHEIVE IT (eg 1000)