Energy Security and the future

Energy Security and the future

1. Future uncertainties

   • Oil can cause an economic catastrophe
     • Rise in global consumption
     • The possibility that we may have reached peak oil
     • The concentration of oil production in fewer countries
     • Oil wells are pumped dry
     • Unpredictable actions of OPEC
   • Factors contributing to Global energy uncertainty
     • Impact of rising living standards
     • Size of undiscovered reserves
     • Discovery of new technologies
     • Scale of switch towards renewables
     • Emergent economies' energy demands
     • Future performance of global economy
     • Scale of global population growth

2. Responses to increasing energy demands

   • Business as usual, if we do nothing, between now and 2030:
     • Primary energy will rise by 53%
     • 55% increaase in CO2 emissions
     • Fossil fuels will remain dominant source
     • Demand for electricity rises
       • Electricity generation will account for 44% of CO2 emissions
     • Coal will provide the largest incremental source, majority in China
     • Over 70% increase in energy demand will come from LEDCs
       • Due to economic and population growth
   • Multi-energy Solution
     • Involves meeting future energy demands from a mixture of resources
     • Rich fuel mix is necessary to ensure energy security and to maintain an affordable supply
     • Controversial issue: Nuclear and Wind
     • Many different types of resources
       • Wind Farms in Anglesey
       • Solar - Cloudless skies in the Sahara
       • Landfill gas in the UK
       • Solar power in the Med
       • HEP at the Hoover Dam
   • Energy Conservation
     • Decreasing the amount of energy used
     • Individual/Organisation
       • Reduce costs
       • Maximise profits
       • Reduce emissions
       • Promote energy security
     • High on political agenda
       • Countries have targets to reduce emissions
       • Move to renewables
       • Cut energy requirements by increasing efficiency - Zero Energy Building Standards

3. Energy Insecurity & Political Tensions

   • Key to energy security
     • Making greatest use of domestic sources
     • Diversifying energy resources
     • Ensuring guarantees of imported energy
       • Greatest challenge
         • Increasing competition for energy
         • World falls into two camps: producers and consumers
         • Producers: Use energy as a tool, form partnerships like OPEC
         • Military tension around stress points
   • OIl and Conflict
     • Oil seen as a driving force in military action, e.g. Iraq
     • China in Africa - China competing with other nations to secure African oil
     • Most of the conflict in the world has been triggered by oil
     • Increase interest in remaining reserves
     • Middle East is a global energy hotspot

4. Meeting future energy needs

   • Stick and carrot- Emission controls
     • Emissions Controls
       • Kyoto Protocol
       • Reduce greenhouse gas emissions
       • 182 countries have signed up to the proposal
       • Not universally welcomed, especially to LDCs as they need to increase their emissions, rather than reduce them more.
     • Emissions Trading
       • Allows countries to sell their surplus savings to those who are over their limit on their carbon count.
       • Carbon emissions are tracked and can be traded.
       • Good arrangement for environmenntally conscientious countries
       • Some countries may seem to be let off of the hook
     • Green Taxes
       • Introduced with the aim of cutting the use of natural resources and encouraging waste recycling
       • For example, taxing of vehicles depending on the amount they emit
       • For example, removing stamp duty on carbon neutral homes
       • Increasing duty on diesel and raising air passenger duty
   • Radical New Technologies: Use of renewables and advances in technology
     • Offshore Wind Turbines
       • Costs 50% more than to do so on land
       • Wind speeds are generally double that than on land
       • Less visible and reduced noise pollution
       • Could interfere with radar and pose a threat to national security
       • Horns Rev, one of the largest in the world
         • Covers 20km squared
         • $270million to build
         • Generates 4000kW per hour
     • Carbon Storage
       • Involves capturing the carbon dioxide and burying it deep underground
       • Allows clean electricity to be produced from coal
       • Noone knows if it will really work, nor do they know whether it will stay underground
       • Expensive
     • Geothermal Energy
       • Free, inexhaustible and available day and night
       • No use of extra land and it is available in many parts of the world
       • Not easy to do, in many places it is too deep to extract, therefore making it expensive
     • Biofuels
       • Crops, trees and algae
       • A lot of processing is needed
       • New crops need to be developed, tailored specifically for fuel
       • Supply chains are costly
       • Can encourage deforestation and food shortages