A1: Natural Population Change (i) - created from Mind Map

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Fertility Measures

Crude Birth Rate

General Fertility Rate

Total Fertility Rate

Age Specific Fertility Rate

Net Reproduction Rate

Total number of live births per 1000 of the mid-year population per year.

Total number of live births per 1000 women in the normal reproductive age groups (15-44) per year.

Average no. of children a woman will have during her reproductive years - assuming she lives until then.

Number of live births per 1000 women within specific age bands per year.

Average number of daughters born per woman.

Mortality Measures

Crude Death Rate

Age Specific Mortality Rate

Infant Mortality Rate

Maternal Mortality Rate

Life Exoectancy

Total number of deaths per 1000 of the mid- year population per year

Number of deaths per 1000 of the population within specific age bands per

Number of deaths per 1000 children in the first year of life.

Number of maternal deaths per 100,000 live births.

Number of years a person is expected to live

Natural Change

% net gain or loss to a population each year. Difference between the BR and the DR.

Replacement Level

Number of new births needed to maintain current numbers in a population, assuming there is no migration (2.1 is the common figure)

Doubling Time

Number of years that it will take a population to double if the current rates of natural increase are maintained.

Global patterns in TFR's

TF varies from 6.8 in Burundi and Angola to 1.3 in Germany

Generally higher in LEDC's than MEDC's

Much of South and Central America, India, Indonesia, South Africa and parts of central Asia have TFR's of 2.2 to 2.9.

Africa has the highest total TFR's, with most Sub-Saharan African countries have values greater than 5.

Global patterns in mortality rates

MEDC's vary from 2-9 per 1000 - lowesr in Australia

Slightly higher in N.America and W.Europe due to ageing populations

Former communist countries in E.Europe and Russia have rates between 13- 29 per 1000.

Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, in particular, have highest death rates

Middle East and N.Africa - LE was 43 years in 1950's - now to 70 years

Global Trends in population change

MEDC

LEDC

Improvements in health care - lower MR. General affluence +women working more in workforce have lowered TFR leading to gradual ageing population

Europe

North America

Concern over ageing pop. + pop. decrease

pop. of 736M : projected 685M in 2050 - lower TFR

France, Finland, UK, Spain, Italy - gov. funded financial incentives to help young families.

Influx of migrants increases TFR

TFR = 2.1

High fertility of growing Hispanic pop. - TFR of 3.0

Africa and Middle East

Asia

Highest fertility level + youthful age structure

TFR = 4.9 SSAfrica = 5.4

pop. 4 Billion - increase 1.4 B between 2008 - 2050 even under Anti-Natalist policies eg China

Youthful pop. structure throughout - average DR of 7/1000

India TFR = 3.6 China TFR = 1.6

Predict India pop. to double in next 50 years

In 20th century, 90% of pop. growth took place in LEDC's - high TFR's.

MEDC - ageing pop. + fertility decline

A1: Natural Population Change (i)