Quantitative Methods

Quantitative Methods

1. MOVING AVGERAGES

   • FORECAST MODELS OF THE TYPE OF SHORT TERM SERIES THAT FORECAST SALES FOR THE NEXT PERIOD. IN THIS MODEL, THE ARITHMEMETIC FORECAST OF ACTUAL OF SALES FOR A NUMBER OF THE MOST RECENT PAST PERIODS IS THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT PERIOD.

2. EXPONENTIAL METHODS

   • THE SIMPLE EXPONENTAIL SMOOYHING OR SMOOTHING METHOD CAN BE CONSIDERED AS AN ENOLUTION OF THE WEIGHTED MOVING AVERAGE METHOD, IN THIS CASE THE AVERAGE OF A TIME SERIS IS CALCULATED WITH AN AUTOCORRECT MECHANISM THAT SEEKS TO ADJUST THE FORECAST IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION TO TH DEVIATIONS OF THE PAST BY MEANS OF A CORRECTION THAT ISTHAT IS AFFECTED BY A SMOOTHING COEFFICICIENT

3. LINEAR REGRESSION

   • PREDICTION OF LINEAR REGRESSION ALLOWS US TO FIND THE EXPECTED VALUE OF A RANDOM VARIABLE TO WHEN B TAKES A SPECIFIC VALUE. THE APP OF THIS METHOD IMPLIES A LINEARITY ASSUMPTION WHEN THE DEMAND PRESENTS AN INCREASING OR DECREASING BEHAVIOR, FOR THIS REASON IT IS ESSENTAIL THAT PRIOR TO THE SELECTION OF THIS DETERMINESTHE INTENSITY