The Demographic Transition Model

The Demographic Transition Model

1. Definition

   • Suggests that all countries pass through similar DT stages or will do given time
   • Describes a sequence of changes over a period of time, between BR's, DR's and overall population

2. Advantages

   • Gives us a good generalised picture of population change over time
   • Gives us a picture for the future
   • Easy to compare different countries and their state of development

3. Disadvantages

   • Based on European countries (not LEDCs)
   • Original model didn't include stage 5
   • Doesn't include migration, major disasters, HIV or government polies
   • Doesn't give a timeline for how long each stage might take

4. Stages

   • Stage 1
     • High stationary or pre-transition phase
     • High death rates due to disease
       • Consequently high birth rates to increase chances of survival
   • Stage 2
     • Early expanding or early transition phase
     • Death rate begins to decline with better living standards
     • Birth rate remains high as children = labour
     • Massive population growth
   • Stage 3
     • Late expanding or mid-transition phase
     • Improved technology in agriculture and industry, better education and birth-control
     • Decline in birth and death rate
   • Stage 4
     • Low stationary or late transition phase
     • Low levels of fertility and mortality
     • Minimal growth
   • Stage 5
     • Birth rates fall below death rates
     • Population decline