Voting Behaviour

Voting Behaviour

1. Social Class

   • Traditionally = most important voting factor
     • Pulzer - class is the basis of British politics
     • A - C1 = Conservatives / C2 -E = Labour
   • Class Dealignment - social class less important
     • Economic changes - service sector 76% / manufacturing fell to 18% (1996)
     • Cons won 4 elections 1979-1992 with w/c support
     • Labour won 3 elections 1997-2005 with m/c support
     • Increased social mobility
   • Impact of Thatcher
     • Decrease in old industries
     • Embourgeoisment
     • Right to buy council houses

2. Gender

   • Thatcher = a lot more women voted for Cons
     • Past women would vote for Cons
   • 2005 - Women favour Labour (won because of this)
     • More women in HOC = POSITIVE DISCRIMINATION
     • Maternity leave, Family Tax Credits = introduced
     • 2005 - 38% women voted for Labour / 2010 -31%

3. Ethnicity

   • Labour has a clear lead amongst BME voters
     • often members of lower social classes
   • Labour lost support of Muslim voters in 2005 after Iraq War (BUT still achieved 56% of Non-White vote)
     • Birmingham constituency = -21.4%

4. Age

   • Young vote for Labour
     • 2005 - 38% (18-24)
   • Older vote for Conservatives
     • 2005 - 41% (65+)
   • 2015 - Lib Dems lost support over tuition fees
     • Lib Dems tend to offer idealistic change, which is what young members want

5. Region

   • Since 1980s - North / South Divide
     • Labour - north, industrial areas, Scotland and Wales
       • 2005 -North East 52.9% for Labour
     • Conservatives - the South, East Anglia and rural areas
       • 1980s- economic decline- industrial action of Thatcher meant that decline in votes for Cons.
     • But, some Northern areas are predominantly working class.

6. Election Campaign

   • 1997 -2001
     • Clear that Labour were going to win
     • "Prescott Punch" - little effect
   • 2005
     • Iraq War made it hard for Labour
     • Focused campaign on their economic benefits
       • Lowest mortgage and unemployment rate in 40 years
       • Effective campaign
     • Target marginal seats / not safe seats
   • 2010
     • Cons focused on the economic failure of Lab - CREDIT CRUNCH
       • Unpopularity of Brown
     • Lab - focused on the proposed spending cuts of Tories
       • Cameron's posh background
     • Immigration issues - rise in UKIP starts
     • Brown "Bigotted woman" = bad publicity
     • TV Debates
       • Second debate - Cameron or Clegg clear winner
       • First ever debate - Clegg clear winner

7. Religion

   • Labour - Catholics
   • Conservatives - C of E
   • NI - Sinn Fein (catholics) and DUP (Protestants)

8. Party Identification Model

   • Psychological attachment to a party
     • Ideas of Miller
       • Many voters identify themselves as supporters of a particular party
         • Long lasting
   • Party Dealignment
     • decline in % of votes for major parties
       • Education - more rational choices

9. Economic competence

   • Lab 1974 -79
     • OPEC caused an economic slump price rose by 300%
     • Borrowed from IMF / unemployment trebled
   • Lab 2010
     • 2008 World Banking System collapsed
     • Credit crunch - recession had to bail high street banks out

10. Impact of the Media

    • Dominant Ideology Model
      • Seen as more and more important
      • The media can influence elections
    • Rupert Murdoch
      • Biased to one party
    • The Sun - biggest circulation
      • MOST INFLUENTIAL
    • Daily Mail - Right Wing
      • Support UKIP