Predicting Volcanic Eruptions

Page 1

You can only predict eruptions if:

good knowlegde of the eruptive history of a volcano

have instrumentation on and around a volcano well in advance

constinuously monitor and interpret data coming from equipment

Methods of predicting volcanic activity:

historic pattern of activity

ground deformation: swelling suggests magma is moving up

gas emissions: as magma nears the surgace and pressure decreases, gas escapes

changes in groundwater

seismicity

Risk Analysis

lava flows generally move slowly so rarely kill, but destroy property and agricultural land

blast damage can be very destructive for areas close to volcanoes - people in danger zone killed, trees flattened and buildings destroyed

ash falls cause damage to property

pyroclastic flows are very hot and travel rapidly

lahars can be generated by pyroclastic flows or debris avalanches that become wet by rain/rivers, move rapidly and can be very destructive and travel a long way

New Page