Differential Equations

Differential Equations

1. Epidemic curve

   • num of infected|__ time
   • exponential growth nb>r
   • Endemic if b>r/n
   • prevented by: increasing r OR decreasing b

2. ADVANTAGES

   • solved exactly
   • straight forward to formulate

3. limitations

   • strict assumptions = limited realism
   • restricted output
   • hard to understand
   • large populations only
   • deterministic
   • unknown parameters

4. ASSUMPTIONS

   • everyone is susceptible
   • constant population
   • homogeneous mixing
   • latency period =0
   • no individual variation ( no immunity)

5. SIR