Demographic Transition Model

Demographic Transition Model

1. What is it?

   • Plots how the population of a country changes over time
   • Marks changes in birth rate and death rate
   • Shows that countries pass through five stages

2. Stage 1

   • Small population growth
   • Period of high BR and DR (35/000)
   • No distinct examples except Rainforest Tribes
   • 'Arguably' rural areas of Ethiopia/Bangladesh (UK pre 1970s
   • High IMR - giving birth to replace
   • High BR
     • Cultural aspects
     • Little or no birth control
     • Economic assets
     • Family Planning
   • High DR
     • high incidence of disease
     • famine (uncertainty of food supplies)
     • Lack of medical supplies
     • Inadequate facilities
   • HIGHLY FLUCTUATING

3. Stage 2

   • EARLY EXPANDING
   • BR (20/000) remains high
   • DR falls dramatically
     • Advancements in medical research/care
     • improvement in food production
     • Sanitation improvements
     • Transport (doctors/food/trade)
   • Examples: Peru/Kenya (UK 1760/1880)

4. Stage 3

   • LATE EXPANDING
   • BR (16/000) falls to meet lower DR
   • DR (12/000)
   • Population is increasing but slows towards the end
   • Examples: China (UK 1880-1940)
   • WHY
     • Desire for smaller fam
       • Female education increased
         • Availability of Fam Plan
           • Sterilisation/Abortion
       • Emancipation of women (beginnings)
       • Children become BURDEN
       • Materialism
     • Development in national health service
       • Compulsory schooling
       • Lower IMR (less pressure to have kids)
     • Mechanisation (IndustR)

5. Stage 4

   • LOW FLUCTUATING
   • Population increasing SLOWLY
   • BR = (12/0000
   • DR (10/000)
   • Continued drop in fertility
   • Examples: Current UK (post 1940) Canada, US, Australia
   • WHY
     • Delayed births due to Emancipation
     • Rise in income/materialism
       • Leisure interests
     • Stage 3 reasons applicable
     • Still not equality in society

6. Stage 5

   • DECLINE
   • Population decreasing slowly
   • DR begins to exceed BR
   • Examples: Germany/Hungary
     • Ageing Pop - less people at child-bearing age
   • WHY
     • Emancipation of Women - high authority roles
     • Rise of Individualism (personal focus)
     • Increase in the concept of childlessness/maetialism
     • Independence in Living
     • Increase in non-traditional lifestyle
       • Same-sex relationship