Climate Change

Climate Change

1. Why future sea level rise is hard to predict

   • Tipping point, and positive feedback changes for instance albedo or the melting of permafrost
   • Hard to predict where China's economic growth will fit in
   • Hard to forecast how much ice will melt and how much thermal expansion will occur
   • Hard to predict the speed of political agreements like Kyoto

2. How adaptation can help climate change

   • Thames flood barrier-as a response to increased floods and storms
   • Migration of population of Maldives to Australia-sea level rise
   • Managed retreat around UK coastline-eustatic sea level rise
   • Changing agriculture-for instance GM crops that are drought resistant
   • Changing habits e.g. clothes-in London in response to higher temperatures

3. Why some lack enthusiasm

   • Pre-Obama reluctance
   • NIMBYism, people not wanting projects to disrupt their lives
   • Scientific skepticism influencing governments
   • China-not willing to compromise their economic development
   • TNCs just care about profits
   • People know risks of nuclear power

4. Why business as usual could bring irreversible impacts

   • Low impact scenario allow species to adapt and migrate whereas BAU will destroy habitats altogether
   • Low impact scenario cause biomes to shift whereas BAU destroy them altogether
   • BAU could result in irreversible positive feedback changes in abledo and permafrost

5. Why costs keep rising

   • Rising as GHG emissions rise, link to NICs
   • Increasing events e.g. hurricane frequency
   • E.g. refugee relocation and the redevelopment of the Thames Flood Barrier because it wasn't high enough
   • Failure to introduce mitigation so costs will be worse

6. Why people affected by floods is increasing

   • 40% live in the coastal zone
   • More living on flood plains for the fertile soil
   • Thermal expansion leading to warmer temperatures
   • Warmer temperatures leads to increased storms and frequency of El Nino events
   • Deforestation so less water intercepted

7. Benefits for Arctic

   • Tourism
   • Northwest passage-new shipping routes as ice melts, more trade
   • Farming season extended as tundra biome shifts further north
   • Low heating costs for Inuit
   • Scientific study opps geology

8. How human activity has led to increased emissions

   • Industrial revolution end of 1700s
   • Aeroplanes-water vapour
   • Increased consumption
   • Increased landfill
   • Deforestation
   • Cattle farming
   • 280 to 380ppm

9. How contributes to rising food insecurity

   • Increased coastal erosion and salinisation of freshwater-effect on fish
   • Lack of cash crops
   • Hurricane and wet weather increase threat to bananas in the carribean
   • Land lost due to sea level rise
   • Saturated land-cannot grow
   • Increased drought

10. Why evidence for medium term climate change can be unreliable

    • Proxy records
      • Thames Frost Fair
      • Extreme condtions
      • Long time series data is rare
    • Modern climate recording with accurate instruments only began in 1850
    • Early telescopes for sunspots unreliable
    • Dendrochronology
      • Tree rings extend 8000 years
      • Highly localised