SAB5#131_Analysis_Quantitative_Risks

SAB5#131_Analysis_Quantitative_Risks

1. What it is ? Why we need it?

   • Numerically analyzing the probability and impact of risks and looks at how risks could affect the objectives of the project.
     • Determine which risk events warrant a response
     • Determine overall project risk (risk exposure).
     • Determine the quantified probability of meeting project objectives
     • Determine cost and schedule reserves.
     • Identify risks requiring the most attention.
     • Create realistic and achievable cost, schedule, or scope targets.

2. Can be determined in various way

   • Interviewing
   • Cost and time estimating
   • Delphi technique
   • Historical records
   • Expert judgment
   • Sensitivity analysis
     • Technique to analyze and compare the potential impacts of identified risks
   • Expected monetary value analysis
     • The formula for expected monetary value (EMV) is simply probability (P) times impact (I).
       • EMV = P x I
   • Monte Carlo analysis
     • A) Is usually done with a computer-based program because of the intricacies of the calculations B) Evaluates the overall risk in the project C) Determines the probability of completing the project on any specific day or for any specific cost D) Determines the probability of any activity actually being on the critical path E) Translates uncertainties into impacts to the total project F) Can be used to assess cost and schedule impacts G) Results in a probability distribution
     • Uses the network diagram and estimates to "perforrn" the project many times and to simulate the cost or schedule results of the project.
   • Decision trees

3. Project Documents UPDATE

   • When you’ve finished gathering data about the risks, you change your priorities, urgency ratings and categories (if necessary), and you update  your RISK REGISTER

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