A) Population Change

A) Population Change

1. Global Changes

   • Predicted to stabilize 2050-80
     • Decelerating Growth (DTM)
       • 1.2% vs 2.2% 40 years ago
       • Ageing Populations as a result of declining fertility
         • 10% over 60 now --> 1/3 by 2100
     • Peak at between 10b and 12b in 2070
   • Growth
     • Doubling Time is Decreasing
       • 1650-1850 1850-1920 1920-1970
       • 95% of growth occurs LDCs
     • North America growth due to first gen immigrant families having more children
     • Africa growth from 1 b --> 1.6b in 2050--> gradual decline
   • Shrink
     • China Region population peak by 2020 due to education program

2. Birth and fertility rates

   • Crude Birth Rate (CBR)
     • the number of births per 1,000 people in a population
     • easy to calculate: data readily available
     • Negative: X age and sex structure
       • younger pop --> ^ birth rate  vs elderly population with _
   • High (asset)
     • labour
     • carers
     • family name continuation
     • prestige
     • replacement of deceased children
     • net contributors
   • Low (liability)
     • costly
     • government pension and caretakers
     • women career, women's rights
     • Family Planning
     • decrease in infant mortality
       • i.e. X need for replacement
     • Social changes
       • -urbanization -industrialization -decline in traditional beliefs and customs

3. Death Rate

   • High: _ quality of life;
     • --clean water
     • --food
     • --hygiene
     • --sanitation
     • overcrowding
     • --healthcare
   • low; rising standards of living
   • Poor indicator
     • e..g aged population in more developed countries --> higher CDR

4. Life Expectancy

   • almost all countries showed continual increase between 1960s and 1980s
     • e.g. S Asia w/ 42 --> 60 years or N Africa with 47--> 65
     • HIV/AIDS epidemic --> decrease to below 1960s levels in S. S. Africa
   • Rich countries
     • 1/2 babies born in 2007 will be at least 104
     • longer and better lives
       • better medical care e.g. Early Diagnosis, better treatment, _ birth complications
       • Shorter work weeks

5. Population pyramids

   • Low BR and DR; wide base and concave slopes
   • Decreasing BR; narrowing base
   • Ageing population; low DR, decreasing BR, top heavy
   • low death rate; near vertical sides
   • Bulges: in-migration (both female and male cohort; baby boom

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