Changing Populations

Changing Populations

1. Indicators's

   • infant mortality better than death rates
     • LICs younger pops
       • Afghanistan 50% under 15
       • so not many elderly dying
     • infant mortality is per 1000 births
       • accurate healthcare comparison
   • tradition affecting fertellity
     • cultural factors religion
       • Catholics/Muslims frown upon contraception
     • large families show wealth
     • role of women
       • expected to marry & bear kids young ages
         • Asia & Africa difficult for women to break pattern
       • HICs very fair
   • Education affecting fertility
     • knowledge of birth control
     • freedom to choose
       • marry/start families later
     • women cfareers
       • lifts out of poverty
         • no need for farm kids
           • urbanisation also
   • Usefulness of infant mortality
     • HICs have high as it suggests
       • high hygiene standards
       • good standard of nutrition & nourishment
       • good maternity care
       • high % access clean water
       • healthy domestic conditions
   • Birth rate & Fertility rate being different
     • birth rate no. babies per 1000
     • fertility rate avg. no. babies women would have over lifetime

2. Migration

   • How much it changes depends on
     • in or out?
     • how many people
     • age/sex groups
     • duration
     • permanent or temporary
   • Pakistan in-migration
     • 1.6 mil Afghan refugees registered
       • more men than women
         • in 19-34 age grounp
           • economically active adults
     • largest single refugee pop in world
     • But they're coping!
     • LIC low life expect. anywasy
       • few elderly narrow top of pyramid
     • wide base many kids
       • refugees of child bearing ages
       • high birth rates - low contraception
   • Poland out-migration
     • 2004 joined EU
       • 3rd largest UK ethnic group after Indian/Pakistani
     • HIC long life expectancy
       • large % elderlies need support
     • low fertility rates
       • use of contraception
       • desire for small families
       • narrow base few kids
         • child bearers going & families
     • slightly more women left
       • males leaving
     • narrowing in certain groups
       • economically active adults
   • Economic, social and political implications of Migration
     • Senegal
       • high unemployment poor living conditions
       • young men illegal boats to Canaries for EU access
       • migrants experience trauma & illness
         • from stressful & dangerous 7 day crossings
       • men leave behind wives & kids - family seperations
       • they get low paid tourist work
       • send back remittances to families - may be only source of income
         • but many die so lose main source of income & loved ones
       • Spanish authorities must feed & accomodate migrants
         • immigration services process each one
         • but Spain get cheap & flexible labour source
           • for tourism hotels & catering
           • most migrants eventually get work & pay tax
     • Spain & Senegal working together
       • Spanish recruitment agencies
         • legal immigration
           • migrants don't pay fees
           • no dangerous crossing
       • low paid jobs dismissed by locals taken by migrants
       • Spain provided money to improve living conditions in Dakar
     • Dubai - expanding finance & tourism economy
       • dependant on immigration
         • actively encouraged
       • socially divisive
         • skilled HIC workers
           • get high paid tax free wages
         • semi-skilled construction staff Indian subcontinent
           • forced live overcrowed labour camps
           • passports confiscated
           • $5 a day
     • HIC reduced demand unskilled labour
       • tightened restrictions over economic migrants from LICs
       • vs. increase demand ICT education health staff Germany
         • encouraged skilled labour via German Green Card System (points based)
   • Qatar population structure
     • 2010 highest GDP per Capita $100k
       • 19.4% economic growth
         • due to oil & gas
     • professionals from HICs AND non-skilled staff South Asia
       • sometimes only earn $1200 a year
     • 1.5 mil total pop
       • just 20% arab
       • 20% Indian ... etc
       • 80% foreign pop
     • not many over 65s
       • immigrants return home
     • unusual shape 75% migrantys are men
       • bulge 20-65 males
     • wider base than expected for HIC
       • arabic culture high birth rates
         • but old traditions going?

3. UK Demographic Ageing

   • longevity
     • increase in % elderlies in country
       • called 'greying'
       • next year in UK more over 65s than under 16s expected
   • Causes of UK ageing
     • healthcare vaccines & scans
     • housing conditions central heating
     • healthy living education
     • leisure & recreation facilities
     • earlier retirement decreases stress
     • social services e.g. home help
     • avg. increase in wealth last 30 years
     • de0industrialisation better air quality
   • Polarisation
     • elderly are mixed group of people
     • health & active
       • vs. Bedridden 24/7 care
     • High Income & Assets
       • vs. state dependant & no assets
     • family for support vs no family
     • partner vs alone
     • over half Britains pensioners rely on more than 75% income from state
   • refer to 15 marker pg 29
   • Economic Implications
     • Negative
       • costs of paying
         • financial pressure on gov's
           • hard to fund NHS care homes etc
       • financial pressure on individuals
         • pay for healthcare or care homes
       • pressure on economically active to support elderly dependents
         • life expect up birth rates low?
           • dependancy ratio high
             • increase retirement age
               • less jobs for youngsters
                 • unemployment up - even less workers paying tax
             • presciption cost & pension contributions
       • made worse by massive public debt
       • individuals increasingly being expected fund own retirements private pension schemes (workplace pension)
     • Positive
       • increase employment & business opportunities
         • grey market consumers
           • cruises
       • Voluntary sector
         • more volunteers
           • Cancer Research
       • Family childcare
         • adults can work!
           • not get benefits
         • gov needn't subsidise care
   • Social Implications
     • Positive
       • grandparents
         • most positive role models
           • active part in kids upbringing
       • volunteers
         • help others & organisations
         • charity & donations
         • benefit of wisdom & experience
           • valued opinions
             • especially in Japan!
               • respects old people loads
         • pass down skills
           • kntiting? traditions?
     • Negative
       • Polarised elderlies (living standards)
         • gets worse as benefit dependents incomes fall
       • personal family stress
         • funding retirement homes
           • less kids inheritence
             • worse education?
           • elderly feel 'guilty'
       • return to extended families to care
       • geographical segregation
         • care homes & 'grey ghettoes'
       • discrimination against elderly workplace
       • social provision for youngsters cut?
         • more crime ...
   • Political Implications
     • Government's ways of funding ageing population
       • cut free dental & eye check ups for economically actives
       • VAT on heating bills
       • forced people to pay own nursing homes
       • slowed state pension increases encouraged private pensions - workplace
       • raised retirement age & public sector pension contributions
     • Grey Vote
       • youngsters show less politcal interest
       • parties rely on elderlies votes
         • only concerned about old people's policies
     • Increased in-migraton levels
       • compensate for smaller economically active population
         • more needed to pay tax & NI
         • work in healthcare & social services