DTM

DTM

1. Demography

   • monitored through
     • census
       • official count/survey
         • of pop - every 10 years
     • compulsory registrations
       • of births & deaths
     • special surveys
       • main theme in depth
         • crime, housing , health
         • General Household Survey

2. Population Indicators

   • population density
     • no. per square km
   • birth rate
     • no. births 1000 pop per year
   • fertility rate
     • no. births per 1000 women aged 15-49 year
   • death rate
     • no. deaths 1000 year
   • infant mortality rate
     • no. babies died before age 1 per 1000 births year
   • life expectancy
     • average age people live to
   • natural increase
     • difference between birth & death rates
   • population explosion
     • rapid growth in LICs due to high birth rates but falling death
   • population pyramid
     • graph showing pop strucuture - age/sex
   • population structure
     • divdes countries pop into males feamels different age
   • dependancy ratio
     • proportion of working to not working
   • doubling time
     • time takes pop to double

3. Population Pyramids

   • width shows birth/fertaility rate
   • slope indicates death rate
   • proportion of men to women shows migration
   • area shows total pop
   • 'kinks' show dramatic changes
     • increase in death rate in past
     • decrease in birth rate in past
   • height shows life expectancy
   • A broad base shows you should
     • increase food
     • more homes/schools
     • plan more jobs
     • birth control campaigns & programme
       • agricultural subsistance problems with overpop
     • Narrow base indicates
       • incentives to encourage births
       • hire foreign labour
       • medical services for aged

4. Population Patterns

   • HIC lower birth rates
     • culturally normal to have few kids
     • expense of kids
       • not needed for work
     • contraception & abortion
     • women have careers
   • HIC Longer Life Expectancy
     • good medical care
       • trained doctors
     • improved diet
       • access to healthy foods
     • more access to excercise due to money
     • cleaner air, early retirement
   • LIC higher birth rates
     • large famnilies
       • symolbise wealth/prestige
     • kis need to work on land
       • susistance farming
         • money tyo care for elergy
     • no contraception
       • religion, no access, lack of education
   • LIC shorter life expectancy
     • poor sanitation & contaminated water
     • curable diseases - less vaccines
     • natural disasters & war

5. Stages

   • DTM is graph shows 5 stage of development
     • DTM is based on historical pop trends of two demographic characterisitcs - birth & death rate
     • suggests countries total pop goes through stages due to economically changes
     • stages have relation to birth & death
     • socio-economic forces predict how countries move through stages
     • every country can be DTM located but not fit perfectly
   • Stage One
     • High fluctuating
     • death rates high
       • war, famine, clean water
     • high birth rates
       • lack birth control, marriage age, children working
     • life expect low - little pop growth
   • Stage 2
     • early expanding
     • death rates drop due to
       • surgical advances
       • increased medical supply advailablity
       • vaccines (smallpox)
       • improved nutrition
       • sanitation & water
       • rising wages
     • birth rates remain high
       • religious
       • importance given to men
       • low status of women
     • life expect. up infant mortality down
     • rapid pop growth
   • Stage 3
     • late expanding
     • death rates still dropping
       • improvements medicine & sanitation
     • birth rates huge drop
       • adoption family planning
         • contraception
       • decling infant mortality rates
       • consumer good desire
         • but increased cost of kids
       • mechanization - less labourers needed
         • for subsistance farms
       • educational opportunities women
         • higher literacy
     • life expect up pop growth slowing
   • Stage 4
     • low stationary
     • birth rates decrease to same level
       • fluctuate due to economic conditions
       • ctive birth control - limit no. of kids
       • women's careers
       • migration of young fit ones into fall in birth ratesd
     • pop growth high but steady
   • Stage 5
     • Decling pop
     • death rate shows possible rise
       • as greater % of pop is elderly
     • birth rate low
       • & decreasing as no. of child bearing down & lifestyle

6. Positives vs. Negatives

   • Strengths
     • compare between countries
     • not restricted by time frame
     • useful for past pop changes
       • until 2nd half of 20th century
         • especially for industrialised countries
           • who have followed certain development path
     • some do follow pattern
       • NICs Malaysia/Singapore
     • All can fit model at some stage
       • doesn't neccesserily mean all countries progressed as predicted
   • Weaknesses
     • based on industrialised countries
       • not applicable to non-industralised
         • e.g. African countries not going past stage 2
           • as high birth rates
             • due to kids being needed to work in subsistance farming
       • 'eurocentric'
     • model analysed time when European countries got rich from colonies
       • today poorer LICs dependant on HICs
         • so won't get as rich
           • BUT India & Asian MICs have had fasted growth rates
     • Eurocentric idea applies to countries like Saudi Arabia
       • GDP high but religion & tradition
         • keep family sizes high
     • Some don't follow
       • China one child policy
         • lower than predicted birth rate
       • Zimbabwe AIDs - slipped to stage 1?
     • doesn't include stage 5
       • needed to show death higher than birth rates
         • in Europe & Japan
         • long term -ve growth
         • overall population may not change as migration
           • DTM neglects this
   • Conclusion: major problem is model hiding internal differences in countries. Always been the case but more relevant in MICs today like Brazil/Mexico/China where growing urban middle class have similar life expectancies & fertaility rates to HIC city pop's but city slums and rural areas haven't had this transistion