(6) Voting behavior - Short-term factors and voting

More important in explaining outcome of elections
Policies
1. Wrong policies can damage a party - 1983 labour "longest suicide note in history"
2. Labour becoming electable started with a policy review
3. 2003 Torys try to be come more electable by revising policies on the Enviroment and Public services
Performance
1. the idea that "government lose election; opposition so not win them"
2. Labour 2010 performance was damaged by there lose of repertation on the economy and the subsequent sharp recession
3. However, tory lost in 1997, despite 7 years of steady economic growth
Leader
1. parties place faith in there leader to win the election
2. Successful leaders have to demonstrate a number of qualities
  1. Accessibility - Leaders must be telegenic and demonstrate a relaxed "like-ability"
  2. Trust - voters need to believe that what their leaders say is true
  3. Strength - Leaders have to demonstrate that they can "run the show"
3. Blair believed to be a electoral asset for the 1997 and 2001 elections
  1. By 2005 personal appeal had diminished significantly
    1. Not an electoral liability, Howard and Kennedy behind him in the polls - 15%
4. US-style televised debates enhanced the importants of leaders for victory
  1. "Cleggmania" sweeped the country due to Clegg success in the debates
  2. Less popular Lib Dem policy causted Cameron performance in the debates to be increase - partly due to Mordock Papers
5. Little evidence that the debates had an impact on voters shifting partys, marginal impact on turnout
  1. Did cause Brown to lag further behind Cameron
Party image
1. Labour had a party image problem in the 80's - "cloth cap" party
2. 90's Conservatives had a "nasty party" image
  1. "Get rich quick" associated ethos - little sympathy for the younge and other minorities
  2. Rebranding procduced a 5% swing form Labour to Conservatives
  3. Cameron try to "detoxify" the party image embracign "Green" policies, more inclusive appeal and more open cercern about plight of the poor and the role of public services
3. Party continual "rebrand" to try and "connect" with voters
Campaigning
1. £40 million + spend on campaiging in 2005
2. The net impact of national campaigning may be less significant than for example gettind the backing the Murdoch papers
3. Little change on voters chioce form campaign start to polling day
4. Local campaigning can make a diffrence. Increased in "targeting" voting for key seats has artaficially concentrated their support to have the greates impact
Tactical voting
1. used in large scale in 97, occurs when two parties are close to one another in policy and ideological terms for their supporters to be willing to vote for the other party in order to keep their least preferred party out of power
2. 1997 and 2001 favoured Labour and Lib Dem's and damaged Torys
3. More complex in 2005 and 2010
  1. Divitions over Iraq war - Labour and Lib Dem's
    1. Fewer Lib dem voters were willing to lend there votes to Labour and Labour more willing to vote Lib Dem over Iraq
Explaining declining turnout
1. Low turnout in 2001 and 2005 - how can Democracy be "renewed"
  1. Reform - elctoral reform, e-democracy and intro of compolsory voting
2. Two spcological factors have impact on turnouts
  1. Link between turnout and education
    1. Better more likely
    2. Should have increased due to high levels of higher educations
  2. Change in size of ethnic minority
    1. How are more likely not to vote
    2. Increase slowly in population could casue fall
3. Partisan dealignment may cause turnout fall
  1. A declin in party identification means that people may be less concerned about the outcome of elections
4. May be the fact is there was "little encouragement for people to vote" in 2001 and 2005
  1. A less than popular govt fitting a more unpopular opposition
  2. Little choice in policy and ideas
5. 2010, unpopular PM leading an unpopular Govt, confroning an oppostion that only partially "detoxified" it image and whose austerity package alarmed important sections of electorate
  1. Increassing turnout lie's with major party themselves and there capacity to regain public trust and credibitly

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(6) Voting behavior - Short-term factors and voting

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