Karteikarten
Unit 3 - The US Electoral Process
Karten in diesem Stapel (45)
- 1Constitutional requirements for Presidential candidate/election- Natural born US citizen (Birthers question Obama's original birth place)
- at least 35 years old
- Been a US resident for last 14 years
- limited to two terms as President
- FIXED term elections = every 4 years - 2Conventional requirements for Presidential candidates- Political experience = most important/expected factor - BUT not guarantee success Clinton 2016.
- Major party endorsement = backed by Demo/Rep - independent candidates rarely gain large impact.
- Presidential character = white, married, male, few scandals BUT Trump 2016 campaign, Clinton 1992 affair.
- Money = raise money for campaign - Perot 1996, Forbes 2000 only people fund selves.
- Campaign = organisation and TV skills - Phill Gramm 1996 "too ugly" to be President
- Policies = substance over style? - Trump and immigration - 3Define Invisible Primary- Period between candidates first announcement to run and the first primary contest.
- nomination chosen through process of primaries/caucuses - UK CONTRAST
- Obama announce candidacy in Feb 2007 with first contest in Jan 2008
- leads to a very LONG and EXPENSIVE campaign
- correlation between who wins invisible primary and official nomination.
- 2016 both T + C ahead from start
- 2008 neither Obama or McCain were favourites at end of the invisible primary - 4Importance of invisible primaries- correlation between winner and official nomination - 2008 no correlation, 2016 yes
- Important period to raise funds and campaign team
- Clinton $130m raised before January
- creates MOMENTUM
- Ensures name/face recognition for start of contests
- 2007 Obama not well known = successful invisible primary
- BUT does not guarantee success - 5Role of media and opinion polls in the invisible primaries- MEDIA = candidates want name recognition with serious news outlets and TV appearances
- Trump 2016 dominated the media
- POLLS = regularly reported in media in 'head to head' ranking of candidates - 6Role of money in invisible primary- significant time to raise money for future campaign = imp for success
- 2016 = 5 Reps withdraw before primaries
- Clinton's ability to raise $ scared others
- Jan 2016 = $130m raised already
- BUT not guarantee success as Ben Carson raise most in Rep IP ($57.9m) but won no primaries - 7Visible events in the invisible primary- TV debates = imp.
- 2016 Trump dominated with argumentative style
- Republicans = too many on field
- 2011 Perry = top candidate but bad debate skills lost him momentum
- Traditional events - e.g. Iowa Straw Poll for Republican candidates
- Jefferson-Jackson dinner for Democrats = Obama 2008 memorable speech
- State visits = vital to gain momentum - 2011 Rick Santorum visit every county in Iowa = Challenge Romney - 8Define October SurpriseTerm used to describe key event late in campaign and has impact on result.
- 2016 = 11 days before election, Comey announce starting investigation into Clintons emails due to "new evidence" BUT nothing new found = waste/ruin campaign.
- 2012 = Hurricane Sandy stopped Romney's momentum while Obama dominated media with his White House response. - 9Importance of the invisible primary in 2016- Both Clinton and Trump considerably ahead.
- Clinton = 14% ahead of Sanders
- 2015 poll success = highlight amount of name recognition.
- Suffered with 18-29 y/o who favoured Sanders = only 39% support C
- not as energised in debates as Sanders
- Face Sanders challenge in primaries
- Trump = 16% ahead of Cruz
- Wide spectrum = 17 Rep candidates
- Largely focused on sense of frustration
- Republican establishment powerless in face of Trump's momentum - 10Define Primary- state-based election for party candidate
- shows level of support in ordinary voters
- chooses no. of delegates that vote for candidate at National Party convention
- Open Primary = members of any party can vote means 'crossover' voting - 2008 Republicans for Obama
- Texas D/R
- Closed Primary = only registered democrats vote at Demo primary
- Oreogon (D) and Cali (R)
- Closed/mixed primaries = allow for independent voters to vote
- Ohio (D) and New Hampshire (R)
- Demo proportionally allocate delegates
Some Rep = 'winner takes all' - e.g. Trump won all 58 Arizona delegates - 11Define Caucus- state-based series of meetings
- less common + low turnout
- Typically geographically large areas with thin population
- Sanders = benefit from caucuses 2016 - average 66% to Clintons 33%
- Open = Washington (D) and Minnesota (R)
- Mixed= Utah (D/R)
- Closed = Nevada (D) and Hawaii (R) - 12Importance of early contests- Contests timetabled by party national committee
- Iowa = traditionally first caucus
- 2016 = Cruz ahead with 27% and Clinton scrape victory over Sanders
- un-representative state BUT voted for overall winner 6/7 recent elections
- New Hampshire = all winners win their primary
- BUT 2016 Hillary lost to Sanders
- Winners enjoy early media, money and poll boosts
- 2008 Obama went from 15% behind Clinton in polls before contests to 12% ahead afterwards
- 'front-loading' = March 2016 32 states already contested - 13Incumbent presidents during the invisible primary- results in little/no alternative coverage
- some states don't even hold primaries - 2012 NY, Florida, Virginia = Demo
- 2012 Obama = average 92%
- only serious challenges to incumbent in 1976, 1980, 1992
- lead to hard fought primaries - 14Why did Clinton win the Democrat nomination?- Up against weak candidates
- "Most experienced candidate in history"
- 75% want candidate with experience
- 519 delegates v Sanders 359
- Super-delegates = 15% of total = highly credited/experienced members
- HC won 90% of super-d support
- Flexibility in policies to match Sanders = min wage to $15 per hour
- Still only won 16% 18-29 y/o
- 7/11 Super Tuesday victories = momentum - 15Why did Trump win the Republican nomination?- Inflammatory comments = in spotlight
- Popular amongst 'angry', conservative, blue-collar voters
- Disillusionment with political establishment - 'drain the swamp'
- Social media = significant campaign feature + TV fame = already large following
- 6 straight contest victories = momentum
- Super-Tuesday = 6/9 victories - 16Voter turnout at primaries- improved since reforms in 1960s = only 11% of electorate
- 2016 = 29% of electorate
- clear dips in in turnout with incumbent
- Varies state to state - N.Hampshire = 52% Louisiana = 18%
- Lowest in caucus states = Kansas = 5.5%
- Higher turnout at open + competitive primaries
- Early contests = undecided = higher %
- Thought to attract only the 'ideological extremists' who are already sure of vote
- Attract higher educated, older, and wealthy voters = 2016 N.Carolina Rep primary = 50% college degree - 75% + 45y/o - 17Arguments that the primary system is FLAWED- Too LONG
- Too EXPENSIVE
- Dominated by the MEDIA = creation of 'style over substance'
- Front loading
- PARTY CONFLICT = difficult to repair during final campaign - 2008 Obama/Clinton - personal attacks
- Unwanted nominees = ill-informed voters make uneducated decisions
- Issues with CAUCUSES = unrepresentative + extremely low %
- Lack of professional input = most qualified candidate not elected - Trump - 18Define Front loading- Uneven distribution of funds with greater proportion raised at the beginning of the process.
- Works against less popular/less well known candidates
- Koch brothers = significant funders
- Candidates who win primaries = typically win overall BUT 2008 exception - 19Arguments that system is too expensive, too long and large media domination- argument that system flawed
- Length = normally 10 month long period, with extra invisible primary time - comparison to 1968 where Nixon announce running 40 days before
- Expense = better use of high $, June 2016 Clinton = $275m, unfair to less well-known candidates , 'buy' the nomination ?
- Media = "beauty contest", 2016 Clinton suffered through media attacks, not beneficial for most qualified candidates, TV debates, interviews, ads, personality politics - 20Arguments that primary system works WELL- Encourages PARTICIPATION = increase in last 5 years - 1988, 35m - 2016, 61m - BUT still only 30% of electorate
- RANGE of candidates = 2016 17 Reps campaigning for wide range of polices/ideologies - BUT those without political background (2016+2012, Cain)
- WEEDING OUT process = gruelling/long process so weak candidates drop out, 2012 Rick Perry = popular but less than1% of first contests
- IMPACT = imp for Trump establishment without political background, typically winner reflect BUT can still loose - 21How can system be improved/reformed?- Improved since 1960s "smoke filled rooms" to the primary system
- Greater peer/professional review = Democrats intro 'super-delegates'
- 2016 favour Clinton = Sanders supporters suggest a 'rig' ?
- Regional primaries = South, Midwest etc = states hold primaries on same day, only 4 different primary days
- Allows candidates to focus on their campaign
- Atkins 5 point plan, 2016 = remove caucuses + closed primaries - 22When is a VP chosen?- Until 1956 = decision left in hands of party convention
- Until 1980 = VP announced at convention
-1984 = Mondale announce congresswoman as VP before convention
- 2016 VP's both announced 3 days before conventions - 23Define balanced ticket- President picks a VP with qualities they don't have
- Appeal to wider section of voters
- Geographical region, age, ideology, gender, religion, political experience
- Biden 2008 = served 36 years in office, foreign policy expert (a weakness of Obama) due to FP senate chairman
- Pence 2016 = Governor and HOR experience to balance Trump
- BUT not guarantee success
- Kaine 2016 = fluent in Spanish, civil rights lawyer, Virginia = swing state, a moderate 'Blue-Dog Democrat'
- Also many successes with an 'unbalanced ticket' - Clinton and Gore 1992 both from south + same age - 24Define National Party Conventions- Nominating conventions
- At end of primaries = held to announce party nomination
- Bring media attention to swing states
- Evening themes/speeches
- 2008 final night = Obama in 85,000 seat stadium = large excitement
- 2016 themes = Make America safe/work/first/one again - 25Formal functions of party conventions x41) Choosing party candidate = 2008 narrow lead after contests 51% v HC 49% but had support of 'super-delegates'
BUT become a formality after primaries?
2) Brokered convention = when no absolute majority
3) Choosing VP = no longer significant
4) Deciding the party platform = form of party manifesto - difficult to achieve due to 'big tent coalitions' but clear divisions with abortion, LGBTQ, guns etc. - 26Informal functions of party conventions x31) Promoting part unity = after divisive primary contests - e.g. Sanders 2016 endorsement speech, Rep 2016 no united front as Romney and Bush refuse invitation
2) Enthuse loyal voters/volunteers
3) Connect to ordinary voters = party feeling on TV broadcast, end nomination speech, create first impressions for 'undecided' voters - 27What is the post convention 'bounce'?- opinion pols measure how well candidates perform at conventions
- Elections 1980-2012 = average bounce of 6% to challenging party
- 2016, Trump = 1%, Clinton = 4.5%
- Clinton clearly won the conventions but still lost the election - 28Importance of conventions?- 2016 Trump well bellow normal boost BUT still won
- Only half of time does the bounce successfully reflect in the result
- Important event in outlining future political stars = Obama 2004 --> 2008
- millions watch on TV = start of campaign? - 29Define swing states- Similar to UK marginal constituencies
- Some states = safe for one party
- NY, Cali = Demo
- Texas, Georgia, Kansas = Rep
- Essential for parties to focus resources/ campaigning on target states
- 2016 Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Colorado, Virginia = large impact
- reason for Clintons loss in 2016
- Trump able to appeal to white, working class men = crucial
- Obama 2004 ambitious victory of previously Rep states - Florida - 30Key moments in 2016 Election campaignTrump
= loose cannon/inflammatory statements
= appealed to core voters while :( party
= claimed Obama founded ISIS
= dominated news = publicity
Clinton
= insulted/alienated potential T voters
= "basket of deplorables"
= collapse at 9/11 event + pneumonia
= sense of secretive manner - emails - 31Role of TV in election campaigns- NOT restrained to UK political neutrality
- Late night chat shows - e.g. Saturday Night Live use political satire
- TV ads used to attack opponents and publicise policies
- TV debates since 1960
- 2016 Clinton seen as winner in all 3 debates BUT still lost
- Influential as 84m watched 1st debate
- Emergence of style over substance
- Trump criticised for interrupting and shouting over Clinton
- Sound bites for/against candidate in campaign and newspaper headlines
- Difficult for incumbents as have to defend previous 4 year record
- 2012 Romney = 72% voted winner
- Trumps exaggerations = beneficial as portray him as just not another politician - 32Role of money in elections- Campaigns very expensive = successful candidates raise high funds
- Super 'PACs' = independent committees to raise unlimited sums from corporations/individuals
- 2016 Priorities USA Action = $192m for HC
- 'expenditure only' as forbidden from making direct federal contributions
- Matching funds = money from federal gov. to match what already raised + upto $250 extra with each donation
- 2008 Obama not accept and instead raise more independently through online small donors = advantage over McCain
- By 2016 MF only $1m raised
- BUT Trump largely benefit from free media coverage due to campaign controversy - 33What is the Electoral college?- 50 states wide, indirect election of President
- 538 total ECV's = 270 to win Pres election
- All but Nebraska and Maine use 'winner-takes-all' system to distribute ECV's
- Others use 'Congressional District Method' = each district gets an ECV
- BUT lead to 269-269 draw = HOR pick President (last used 1824) - 34Strengths of EC system (x2)1) Protects rights of SMALLER states
- Cali, NY, Texas has large population and more ECV's
- 1788, Virginia = 12 ECVs = BIGGEST
- Now, Cali has 18x more than smallest state
2) Promotes a two-horse race = winner typically wins 50% of the vote
- 2/3rds elections since 1864 - 35Weaknesses of EC system (x6)1) Over-represents smaller states
2) Distorts the result = differing victory margin - 1996 Clinton 49% popular vote but 70% of Electoral college
3) Unfair to third parties
4) Rouge electors = 'faithless electors' - 2016 7 rouge electors
5) President and VP from different parties = no political parties with Founding Fathers
6) Loose popular vote but still win = 2000 and 2016 (48.2% Clinton v 46% Trump) - 36How is the EC over-representative of smaller states and unfair to third parties?- Cali has 1 ECV for every 713,000 people
- BUT Wyoming has 1 ECV for every 195,000
- No third party won ECV since Wallace in 1968 with 13.5% of vote - concentrated in South
- 1992 = Ross Perot 18.9% of vote but no ECV
- 2000 = Nader 3m votes but no ECV - 37Electoral College reform- difficult to intro as need constitutional amendment and 'super majority'
1) Direct Election = elect by direct popular vote = popular reform - 72% :) in 2007
2) Proportional System = proportionally by state popular vote but not produce clear majority
3) Congressional District system = 2 ECV's to state wide winner and 1 to each district winner.
- 2012, Romney would have defeated Obama due to more smaller margin wins - 38Define Propositions- form of DRIECT DEMOCRACY
- only takes place at state-level (24/50)
- Process which allows citizens to directly intro state law.
- Bypass legislative process and scrutiny
- Direct = qualifies onto the ballot
- Indirect = submitted to state legislature before ballot
- between 1990-2004 = 48% success rate
- Passed with simple majority on ballot
- Encourage greater participation - 39Examples of propositions- Arguably only deal with controversial issues which would never be passed in regular legislative process
- 2016 = 57% yes to marijuana legalisation in Cali and 54% yes in Nevada
- 1994 = undocumented people in Cali were no eligible for social services
- 2018 Florida = increase min wage to $10 an hour and make abortion murder crime
- Short term gain due to no scrutiny ?
- Undermine US federal democracy - 40Define Referendums- DIRECT DEMOCRACY
- enables voters to veto bill passed by state
- similar to propositions but intro by state legislatures
- Typically changes to constitution/tax system
- 24 states = "popular referendum" = Alaska, Colorado = voters have 90 days to demand referendum on unpopular state law - 41Examples of US referendums- 2016, Colorado = regulation forcing convicted criminals to work unpaid voted to be kept in constitution
- 2012, Idaho = veto education reforms BUT failed
- 2012, Cali = veto redistricting plan - 42Define recall elections- DIRECT DEMOCRACY
- voter ability to remove elected official from office before term expiration
- Direct impeachment
- 18/50 states = rarely use
- increase elected accountability
- BUT 'buyers regret' and officials discouraged from making right but unpopular decisions - 43Examples of recall elections- 2018, Mayor Schlaak in Colorado replaced through recall
- 2012, Gov of Wisconsin = Scott Walker (R) due to limited TU rights and opposing state employee pension
- 2010, Iowa = 3 court justices for supporting same sex marriage
- 2005, New Jersey = Major Marko considered 'out of touch' with voters - 44Advantages of direct democracy (x4)1) Increase voter turn-out if controversial propositions - e.g. 2004 Ohio ban gay marriage
2) Propositions increase interest and participation in other areas of politics - PGs
3) Propositions and recalls increase state legislatures accountability and responsiveness
4) Allows voters to enact controversial BUT popular reforms which may have been otherwise rejected - e.g. marijuna, term limits, tax - 45Disadvantages of direct democracy (x4)1) Lack of flexibility = once drafted no amendments until put into place
2) No debate or scrutiny like normal bill = removal of loopholes and weaknesses
3) Vulnerable to manipulation like media ads and expensive campaigns
4) Recall elections/propositions = popular but unnecessary bills
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- - Government & Politics Karteikarten am Unit 3 - The US Electoral Process, erstellt von Emily Bevis am 29/04/2018.
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