Maths - Probability

Maths - Probability

1. Probability

   • Understand and use the vocabulary of probability and probability scale
     • Distinguish between events which are; impossible, unlikely, even chance, likely, and certain to occur
     • Mark events and/or probabilities on a probability scale of 0 to 1
     • Write probabilities in words or fractions, percentages or decimals
   • Understand and use estimates or measures of probability from theoretical models (including equally likely outcomes), or from relative frequency
     • Understand and use estimates or measures of probability, including relative frequency
     • Use theoretical models to include outcomes using dice, spinners, coin
     • Find the probability of successive events, such as several throws of a single dice
     • Estimate the number of times an event will occur, given the probability and the number of trials
   • List all outcomes for single events, and for two successive events, in a systematic way and derive relative probabilities
     • List all outcomes for single events, and for two successive events, systematically
     • Use and draw sample space diagrams
   • Identify different mutually exclusive outcomes and know that the sum of the probabilities of all these outcomes is 1
     • Add simple probabilities
     • Identify different mutually exclusive outcomes and know that the sum of the probabilities of all these outcomes is 1
     • Use 1 −p as the probability of an event not occurring where p is the probability of the event occurring
     • Find a missing probability from a list or table
   • Compare experimental data and theoretical probabilities
     • Compare experimental data and theoretical probabilities
   • Understand that if they repeat an experiment, they may − and usually will − get different outcomes, and that increasing sample size generally leads to better estimates of probability and population characteristics
     • Compare relative frequencies from samples of different sizes
   • Know when to add or multiply two probabilities: when A and B are mutually exclusive, then the probability of A or B occurring is P(A) + P(B), whereas when A and B are independent events, the probability of A and B occurring is P(A) × P(B)
     • Understand conditional probabilities
     • Understand selection with or without replacement
   • Use tree diagrams to represent outcomes of compound events, recognising when events are independent
     • Draw a probability tree diagram based on given information (no more than 3 branches per event)
     • Use a tree diagram to calculate conditional probability