Sudan- Item 7

Sudan- Item 7

1. Physical push factors

   • 1. Climate change
     • Decreased rainfall
       • 70 ml of rain in 2015 600 ml of rain in 2016
         • Unreliable
       • Haphazard rains are destroying arable lands
         • In 1998, 120 million hectares lost
       • 16/20 driest years in Sudan have occurred since 1972
       • 6/12 months less than 2mm
     • Drought
       • 2011
     • The temperature of the Sahel will increase by 3 to 5 degrees Celsius by 2050 and possibly 8 degrees Celsius by 2100.
   • 2. Over grazing and deforestation
     • Soil erosion
     • 80% employed in agriculture
       • Poverty
       • Agriculture will decrease by 50%
   • 3. Desertification
     • 12% of Sudan's forest cover lost in 15 years
   • 4. Famine and food insecurity
     • In 2015, 3.5 million people are food insecure
     • WFP provided food assistance to 4 million people in 2016
     • Feb 2017- declared that 4.9 million people needed food urgently and were in imminent danger of starvation.
     • 20% of households suffer extreme food shortages
     • 30% of households experience extreme malnutrition

2. Human push factors

   • 1. Overpopulation from population growth
     • Food, water and energy insecurity
       • Poverty
         • GNI per capita $4,080
         • Lack of highly qualified jobs
         • 1.7m facing food shortages
         • 33% without electricity
     • Birth rate: 37
     • Death rate: 8
     • Darfur's population has grown 6 fold in 60 years to 6.5 million.
     • 42 million people
       • The number of youth—those younger than 20—will double by 2050 (In the whole Sahel).
     • Fertility rate: 5.2/1000
     • Infant mortality: 51/1000
     • Median age: 19
       • Going to migrate to Europe for jobs
     • 34% urban
   • 3. Conflict regime
     • Lack of investment
     • Citizenship issues
       • Poor quality of life
       • Lack of safety
       • Unemployment
     • Major inflation of economy
       • 600%
   • 2. Conflict
     • Civil war cost the lives of 1.5 million people.
     • Continuing conflict in western region of Darfur has driven 2 million people from their homes and killed more than 200,000.
     • In Darfur there are 4m internally displaced people and 1/2m migrants
   • 4. Lack of/uneven distribution of resources
     • Soil/ water/ oil/ minerals
     • in 2011, South Sudan became independent
       • Sudan lost 75% of income from oil
   • 5. Transit route for illegal migrants
     • Sudan is part of the Eastern route for migration
     • Surrounded by many other African countries where migration is significant
     • 66% of migrants male

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