Test
Statistics Chapter 17
Preguntas del test (25)
1There are three components to any decision:
- A1. the choices available, or alternatives
2. the states of nature, which are not under the control of the decision maker
3. the payoffs - B1. The goals of the decider
2. The steps to reach the goal
3. The risks invovled - C1. The total list of options
2. The option with the best return
3. Selecting the best option
- A1. the choices available, or alternatives
2Event
- AUncertainty regarding future demand.
State of nature (future demand) unknown. Decision maker has no control over state of nature. - BTwo or more courses of action open to decision maker. Decision maker must evaluate alternatives.
Decision maker selects a course of action based on certain criteria.
Depending on the set of circumstances, these criteria may be quantitative, psychological, sociological, and so on. - CProfit. Break even. Loss.
- AUncertainty regarding future demand.
3Act
- AUncertainty regarding future demand.
State of nature (future demand) unknown. Decision maker has no control over state of nature. - BTwo or more courses of action open to decision maker. Decision maker must evaluate alternatives.
Decision maker selects a course of action based on certain criteria.
Depending on the set of circumstances, these criteria may be quantitative, psychological, sociological, and so on. - CProfit. Break even. Loss.
- AUncertainty regarding future demand.
4Outcome Payoff Consequence
- AProfit. Break even. Loss.
- BTwo or more courses of action open to decision maker. Decision maker must evaluate alternatives.
Decision maker selects a course of action based on certain criteria.
Depending on the set of circumstances, these criteria may be quantitative, psychological, sociological, and so on. - CUncertainty regarding future demand.
State of nature (future demand) unknown. Decision maker has no control over state of nature.
5EMV(Ai)
- Arefers to the expected monetary value of decision alternative, i. There may be many decisions possible. We will let 1 stand for the first decision, 2 for the second, and so on. The lower- case letter i represents the entire set of decisions.
- Brefers to the probability of the states of nature. There can be an unlimited number, so we will let j represent this possible outcome.
- Crefers to the value of the payoffs. Note that each payoff is the result of a combination of a decision alternative and a state of nature.
6P(Sj)
- Arefers to the probability of the states of nature. There can be an unlimited number, so we will let j represent this possible outcome.
- Brefers to the value of the payoffs. Note that each payoff is the result of a combination of a decision alternative and a state of nature.
- Crefers to the expected monetary value of decision alternative, i. There may be many decisions possible. We will let 1 stand for the first decision, 2 for the second, and so on. The lower- case letter i represents the entire set of decisions.
7V(Ai, Sj)
- Arefers to the value of the payoffs. Note that each payoff is the result of a combination of a decision alternative and a state of nature.
- Brefers to the probability of the states of nature. There can be an unlimited number, so we will let j represent this possible outcome.
- Crefers to the expected monetary value of decision alternative, i. There may be many decisions possible. We will let 1 stand for the first decision, 2 for the second, and so on. The lower- case letter i represents the entire set of decisions.
8A method to analyze a decision regarding which property to buy is to determine the profit that might be lost because the state of nature (the market behaviour) was not known at the time the land developer bought the land.
- Aopportunity loss or regret
- Bopportunity gains
- Cbest decision method
- Dopportunity decision regret
9An opportunity loss table can be developed by taking:
- AThe difference between the optimal decision and any other decision made.
- BThe difference between the opportunity loss and the optimal decision made.
- CThe difference between the opportunity loss and any other decision made
- DThe difference between the optimal and the least optimal decisions.
10EOL(Ai)
- Arefers to the expected opportunity loss for a particular decision alternative.
- Brefers to the probability associated with the states of nature, j.
- Crefers to the regret or loss for a particular combination of a state of nature and a decision alternative.
11P(Sj)
- Arefers to the expected opportunity loss for a particular decision alternative.
- Brefers to the probability associated with the states of nature, j.
- Crefers to the regret or loss for a particular combination of a state of nature and a decision alternative.
12R(Ai, Sj)
- Arefers to the expected opportunity loss for a particular decision alternative.
- Brefers to the probability associated with the states of nature, j.
- Crefers to the regret or loss for a particular combination of a state of nature and a decision alternative.
13The lowest expected opportunity loss and highest expected payoff will...
- AAlways lead to the same decision concerning which course of action to follow.
- BAlways lead to the opposite decision concerning which course of action to follow.
- CUsually lead to a similar decision concerning which course of action to follow.
- DAlways lead to a different decision concerning which course of action to follow.
14maximin strategy
- AThe strategy that maximizes the minimum gain
- BThe strategy that maximizes the maximum gain
- CThe strategy that minimizes the maximum regret
15maximax strategy
- AThe strategy that maximizes the minimum gain
- BThe strategy that maximizes the maximum gain
- CThe strategy that minimizes the maximum regret
16minimax regret strategy
- AThe strategy that maximizes the minimum gain
- BThe strategy that maximizes the maximum gain
- CThe strategy that minimizes the maximum regret
17Value of perfect information is
- AThe difference between the maximum payoff under conditions of certainty and the maximum payoff under uncertainty.
- BThe difference between the minimum payoff under conditions of uncertainty and the minimum payoff under certainty.
- CVery valuable information
- DStatistical data with a zero degree of error.
18Sensitivity analysis
- Alets you see how accurate the probability estimates must be to feel comfortable with
your choice. - BAnalysis how sensitive the data is to inclimate weather or acts of god.
- CIs the first step in the decision process.
- DCompares objections being voiced with history of experiences.
- Alets you see how accurate the probability estimates must be to feel comfortable with
19Decision trees
- APresent a picture of the various courses of action and the possible states of nature.
- BAre long term plans to continually make the best decisions over time.
- CIs a method of growing the accuracy of a choice with more data.
- DIs an alphabetical list of all decisions options.
20backward induction
- AIs a strategy to find the best decision in a decision tree.
- BIs a common mistake made by statisticians.
- CIs a decision tree constructed backwards.
- DIs the process of making a decision and verifying it afterwards.
21The various courses of action are called
- AThe acts or alternatives
- BThe decisions
- CThe probabilities
- DThe Consequences
22The uncontrollable future events are called
- AThe acts or alternatives
- BThe decisions
- CThe states of Nature
- DThe payoff table
23The consequence of a particular decision alternative and state of nature is called
- AThe payoff
- BThe states of nature
- CThe Probabilities
- DThe acts or alternatives
24Probabilities are usually assigned to
- AThe states of nature
- BThe acts or alternatives
- CThe payoff
- DThe decision
25All possible combinations of decision alternatives and states of nature result in
- AA payoff table
- BThe states of nature
- CThe acts or alternatives
- DThe probabilities
Información
- Descripción
- Chapter 17 review quiz
- Autor
- Bradford Richard
- Idioma
- English
- Visitas
- 34
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