16295963
Description
Flashcards by Lauri Hiltunen, updated more than 1 year ago
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Created by Lauri Hiltunen
over 5 years ago
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| Question | Answer |
| 3 things we can forecast in SCM | 1. demand 2. supply 3. price |
| What inaccurate forecasting causes (2) | 1.1 Over-production -> excess inventory - spoilage, waste, inventory costs 1.2 Under-production -> inventory shortages - late deliveries, stock out and shortage, high shipping costs |
| 6 reasons for forecasting | 1. customer satisfaction 2. reduced inventory stockouts 3. scheduling production 4. lowering safety stock requirement 5. reducing product obselence costs 6. managing shipping better |
| 3 categories of forecasting | 1. qualitative - peoples "educated opinions" 2. time series - based on history 3. causal - assume other factors correlate |
| qualitative methods | 1. executive opinion 2. market research 3. delphi method |
| time series methods | 1. moving average (naive, simple and weighted) 2. exponential smoothing 3. linear trend line |
| Weighted moving average (formula) | D=past demand, W is weight WMA = W(i)*D(i) + W(i-1)*D(i-1) + W(i-2)*D(i-2) E: 0,5 * 90 + 0,33 * 110 + 0,17 * 130 =103,4 |
| Exponential smoothing (formula) | a= weight for actual demand F(i) = forecast for current period D(i) = demand current period F(i+1) = a*D(i) + (1-a)*F(i) weight * demand now + (1-weight) * previous forecast 0<a<1 |
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