Technology and Risk

Technology and Risk

1. Historical Patterns in Techological Evolution

   • Technology is the means by wich humans and society interact with the physical, chemical and biological world.
     • Human migration spread technology across the globe.
       • People moved form agrarian communities to urban centers.
         • Transportation and communication increased economic activity.
           • Industrial revolution created resource base for a population increase.
             • Technologie´s pattern is: research, invention adn innovation.
               • The shifts in the geographic center of activity can be correlated with the movement of technology.

2. Approaches to Risk

   • Risk is the probability of suffering from a hazard.
     • Sustainable engineering and industrial ecology require consideration of enviromental and sociocultural risk.
       • Risk has two dimensions
         • Objective
           • Quantitative and captured through algorithmic methodologies.
             • The both provide different ways of thinking about risk.
         • Subjective
           • It is not capable o beaing reduced to numbers.
             • The both provide different ways of thinking about risk.
               • Quantitative data must be treated with caution.
                 • Professionals see risk as objective, while people see it as subjective. The difference in approach comes froma a long list of perception.

3. Risk Assessment

   • It consists of five stages: hazard identification, delivered dose, probability of an undesirable effect, determination of exposed population and characterization.
     • Determining the probability of an undesirable effect at the delivered dose, is the challenge of risk assessment.
       • Comprehensive risk assessment models are based on the recognition that there are different categories of risk associated with enviromental concerns.
         • Risk categorization can be used to derive an illustrative CRA methodology.
           • The process assumes that there is underlying social consensus on risk definition.
             • In cases such as enviromental issues, this is a reasonable assumption.

4. Risk Communication

   • The stage during wich the risk assessments results are made known.
     • It involves corporations, governments and news media.
       • Because of this, accurate results can be challenging to communicate.
         • Risk communication has diferent ways of doing it. The options for a Royal Dutch Shell were:
           • Dissasembly or disposal on land
           • Sinking in it´s North Sea location
           • Disassembly on it´s North Sea location
           • Deep Sea disposal
             • Choosing this option caused:
               • Corporate disregard for the enviroment.
               • Business and goodwill lost.
               • Public pressure
               • Other strong opinions from stakeholders.

5. Risk Management

   • The risk has been quantitatively evaluated at this stage.
     • The challenge is to decide whether any policy or regulatory action is desirable.
       • The task is conceptually challenging but potentially achievable.
         • The quantification of the impacts can be derived from cost-benefit economic analysis.
           • Practical approach by Granger Morgan
             • Social and cultural effects of decisions are impossible to quantify.