Energy Security & the Future

Energy Security & the Future

1. Future Uncertainties

   • A glitch in world energy supplies could trigger an economic catastrophe
     • e.g. Oil - such an event could happen if we have a global rise in oil consumption; we reach 'peak oil' = declining production & rising prices; oil production in fewer countries as sources run dry; OPEC's unpredictable actions & other producer countries
   • Factors contributing to global energy uncertainty...
     • Future performance of global economy
     • Scale of population growth
     • Impact of rising living standards
     • Size of undiscovered oil & gas reserves
     • Discovery of new energy technologies
     • The scale of the possible switch to renewable energies
     • Possible contribution of 'unconventional' oil sources
     • Emergent economies' energy demands

2. Responses to Increasing Energy Demands

   • 1. Business as Usual
     • Do nothing
     • If we took this path forecasts between now and 2030 suggest...
       • Global primary energy demand will rise by 53% leading to a 55% increase in CO2 emissions
       • Fossil fuels will remain the dominant source of worldwide energy
       • over 70% of the increase in global primary energy demand will come from developing countries, reflecting economic and population growth
   • 2. Multi-energy Solution
     • Involves meeting future energy demands from a mixture of renewable, recyclable and non-renewable sources
     • A rich fuel mix is required to ensure energy security and maintain an affordable supply for individuals and industry.
       • One controversial element: Nuclear power
         • Attitudes to Nuclear are shifting in response to dying fossil fuels and climate change
         • China & India are building several reactors and intend to increase their nuclear generation capacity in the next 15 years
         • By 2008, some 439 nuclear reactors in 31 countries were supplying 15% of the world's electricity, 370 gigawatts p.a.
           • Estimated that by 2030, this output will increase to 520 gigawatts
         • Advantages: no greenhouse emissions; uranium is relatively cheap and easy to mine; most uranium reserves are plentiful and will last for up to 150 years; cost-effective transport as its used in small quantities
           • Disadvantages: 1986 Chernobyl - designed to be safe but still generate toxic waste in radioactive materials; difficult to manage; expensive, can cost £7 billion to design and build
       • Example: Wind Power
         • Produces about 1% of the global electricity supply
           • Wind energy is plentiful, renewable, widely distributed and clean & can reduce greenhouse gas emissions by replacing fossil fuels as a source of electricity.
           • Fluctuations in wind speed rarely cause problems when wind power is used to supply a low proportion of total demand
           • Wind farms have met with local opposition, some believe they are unsightly, make a droning noise and pose a danger to birds
         • There's no one source that ticks all the boxes for meeting rising energy demand without increasing emissions but wind power must come close in terms of costs and sustainability
           • However, it is claimed that most of the UK would be covered by wind farms if they were to completely replace fossil fuels as generators of electricity
   • 3. Energy Conservation
     • Based on decreasing the amount of energy used - individuals and organisations that are direct consumers of energy may want to reduce consumption for a number of reasons: to reduce costs; to reduce harmful emissions; to promote energy security on a regional or national scale
       • Energy conservation has been high on the political agenda if the EU in recent years
         • Countries have targets to reduce their carbon emissions and cut their energy requirements by increasing efficiency with which energy is consumed
           • e.g. UK is working towards a zero energy building standard for all new housing by 2016

3. Energy Insecurity & Geopolitical Tensions

   • The key to energy security lies in...
     • making the greatest possible use of domestic sources of energy