Unit 4 Option 1: Tectonic Activity and Hazards

Explore the PHYSICAL and HUMAN factors that cause some hazards to have a more DISASTROUS IMPACT than others
1. Models
  1. Hazard Risk Equation
    1. Vulnerability
      1. Size of pop.
      2. Preparedness
      3. Likely damage
    2. Hazard
      1. Physical factors
    3. Capacity to Cope
  2. Dregg's Model
  3. Event Profile
  4. Parks' Model
  5. Crunch Model
    1. Root Causes
      1. Dynamic pressures
        Unsafe Conditions
2. "Populations"
  1. Ethnic groups
    1. Death 6x higher among Hispanics during Hurricane Katrina
      1. Warnings harder to communicate in Spanish
      2. Poverty
  2. Size
    1. Rural/urban
    2. Population Density
      1. Spread of disease
  3. Age & Gender
    1. "Four times as many women died in Boxing day tsunami". Oxfam report says 77% of the 240,000 casulaties were women. Guardian Global Development, March 2015
    2. "Over 65s represented 70% of Katrina casualties" Social Vulnerability to Disasters, Phillips et al. (2010)
3. "Disastrous"
  1. Immediate vs. delayed
    1. e.g. Pinatubo: Immediate Deaths; Disease outbreak; Global Dimming
  2. Direct vs. Indirect
  3. Costs
    1. Economic
      1. Comparatively higher in MEDCs
    2. Human
      1. Comparatively higher in LEDCs
    3. Environmental
4. HUMAN FACTORS
  1. Level of economic development
    1. Individual wealth
    2. Speed & effectiveness of primary response
    3. Health --> Haitian Typhoid outbreak
    4. Forecasting and early warning
      1. "Predict, Prevent, Prepare"
      2. Pinatubo: Monitoring for two months by PHILVOLCS and USGS allowed timely evacuation.
    5. Communications --> mobile phones
    6. Haiti vs Loma Prieta
  2. Education
    1. Past experience
    2. Public Information Campaigns --> CA case studies
    3. Culture/belief: Aeta did not think their 'Holy Mountain' would harm them.
  3. Governance
  4. Technology
    1. Altering hazard: e.g. pipes to release CO2 in Lake Nyos
      1. Little control over most tectonic hazards
  5. Population growth and urbanization
    1. Congestion --> Limited Escape SECHUAN
    2. Larger vulnerable pop.
      1. High death tolls in NICs
      2. UN 2012:Asia is world's most disaster prone region
  6. affect vulnerability & capacity to cope
  7. Aid
    1. Nepal returned 3 Chinnocks to UK after recent Earthquake - would have been useful based on similarities to Sichuan mountainous evacuation
  8. Construction
    1. Proper plumbing/electricity lowers risk of flood/fire
    2. School collapses after Sechuan quake vs. quake several years later
  9. Primary response
    1. Minimise secondary impacts
    2. Real Time Warning
5. PHYSICAL FACTORS
  1. Location
    1. Flat ground, stable bedrock vs. steep slopes and unstable bedrock
    2. Isolation
      1. no 'disaster'
  2. Event timing
    1. Seasonal
      1. Meteorology
        E15 ash cloud would not have grounded ____ flights without pravailing winds
    2. Time of day
      1. Loma Prieta @ 6pm vs. Northridge @ 6am
  3. Geographical isolation
    1. e.g. Sichuan 2008
  4. Type of event
    1. Type of plate boundary
    2. Ability to forecast
    3. EVENT PROFILE
      1. Magnitude
        Remember Richter is a log scale
      2. Duration
      3. Speed of onset
        Can evacuate some volcanic eruptions, but rarely earthquakes
      4. Spatial distribution
  5. Secondary hazards
    1. Nevada del Ruiz (30,000 dead)
    2. Limbic eruption: Lake Nyos 1986
Research CONTRASTING examples of hazardous events to examine why the IMPACTS of these events on POPULATIONS varies.
1. LOWEST LEVEL OF DEVELOPMENT
2. HIGHEST LEVEL OF DEVELOPMENT
3. Earthquake
  1. Loma Prieta 1989
    1. 6.9 Richter; 5pm; 19km focus depth
    2. 62 deaths; 10,000 homeless; $5.6bn losses
    3. World Series Baseball --> many inside watching TV
    4. Collapse of Cyprus Freeway,& part of Bay Bridge
    5. Ruptured gas pipes --> fires in Marina District
    6. COMPARE TO HAITI (same Mag. and focus depth)
  2. Haiti 2010
    1. 100,000 (USGS) 160,000 deaths (Uni. Michigan) (Gov. est 220-316,000)
    2. 7.0 Richter; 5pm; 19km focus depth
    3. only $8 bn losses
    4. Cholera outbreak 6mnths later - onging
      1. UN Aid programme blamed (peacekeepers) for introducing virus
    5. "Class-quake"
    6. v. high pop. density
      1. No casualties in nearby Dominican Rep.
  3. Northridge 1994
    1. 60 deaths; $30bn losses
    2. 6.7 Richter; 4.30am
    3. Most deaths were from collapse of student tower block.
  4. Sechuan 2008
    1. 8.0 Richter; afternoon; 19km focus depth
      1. 250 aftershocks
    2. 87,000 deaths; 4.8 million homeless; 46 million affected; $192bn losses
      1. 2nd highest economic losses in history (EMDAT)
      2. Highest number homeless due to quake in history
        30,000 tents. $1.5bn public donations
      3. Chengdu - China's 4th largest city (14 million)
        Epicentre 92km away (British Geological Survey)
      4. More houses damaged than in all of Australia
        BBC: "Sichuan 2008: A disaster on an immense scale" (May 2013)
      5. VERY VULNERABLE POP, but fairly high CAPACITY TO COPE
        Wealthly gov. response
        But poor individual victims
        Many did not have medical insurance
      6. Military helicopters used to access mountainous regions cut off for 2 days
        18,000+ missing
        50,000 troops deployed
        158 rescue workers killed by landslides
        World Bank praised 'speedy' response on website (2012)
      7. Poor construction led to school collapses
        7,000 classrooms
        Most deaths by shaking
      8. Reconstruction
        $138bn spent
        6.6 Richter Lushan quake (2013): 193 dead
    3. Thrust fault cont/cont convergence
  5. Volcano
    1. Pinatubo, June 1991
      1. 6 on VEI
        2nd largest eruption of twentieth century
      2. 10km3 magma emitted and 20 million tonnes of SO2 into stratosphere
        Global dimming: -0.5'C 1991-93
        Long term 1.5billion pesos cost to agricultural industry
      3. 847 deaths (mountpinatubo.net)
        Many due to collapsing roofs from lahars (Typhoon Yunya)
        Effective evacuation saved 10,000s
        Disease outbreaks for months after
      4. Luzon, Phillipines (90km NW of Manila)
      5. USAF initiated Op. 'Fiery Vigil': evacuation of 20,000 from Clark Air Base. No US casualties
      6. 30,000 Aetas living on flanks of Pinatubo worst affected
    2. Other
      1. Japan 2011 Tsunami
        $294bn direct losses
        Worst economic impact of any tsunami
        16,000 deaths
        11,500 aftershocks
        9 Richter earthquake 130km East of Sendai
      2. Lake Nyos 1986 (limnic eruption)
        80,000,000 m3 CO2 gas
        50 kph --> 25km radius
        1700 dead
        CO2 released from magma and dissolves under high pressure at low temp. base
    3. Eyjafjallajokull 2010
      1. 4 on VEI
      2. 250 million m3 ejected Tephra; 9km high ash cloud
      3. Jokulhaup caused localised flooding
        Primary fieldwork in 2013
      4. European airspace shut for over 8 days; 10 million travellers affected; Icelandic airspace unaffected
      5. Eruption was directly into Jet Stream
    4. Nevada del Ruiz 1985
      1. Magnitude 6 on Richter, but lahar buried town of 30,000 and 75% died.
  6. Nepal
    1. 7.8 Richter
    2. ~9,000 dead
Sources & Methodology and Definitions: see separate table

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Unit 4 Option 1: Tectonic Activity and Hazards

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