The introduction of a
product to a certain
geographical area, in order to
asses its likely success or the
effectiveness of the
marketing methods used
Benefits- based on actual
purchases so a reliable predicter
of future success. Not as
expensive as a national launch
Disadvantages- competitors
may copy, people may only
buy due to the novelty of the
product (exaggerating true
success), special offers can
lead to a successful start
which cant be maintained.
Analysis of trends/ moving averages
and extrapolation
A trend is an underlying pattern of
change in a set of numerical data
Moving averages are a calculation of the average of a set of data
covering a defined period of time any flactuations are eliminated (
e.g seasonal effects) its scientific thus objective and works to
highlight a trend
extrapolation is using previous
records and patterns in data to
predict future values
disadvantages- less reliable if there are flactuations, assumes past
changes will continue into the future, doesn't take into account
qaulitative factors such as change in consumer taste.
Variations/ flactuations
Cyclical- Boom and recession
periods
seasonal
Random- sales can vary due to changes in taste,
fashion, publicity etc.
Correlation
A statistical technique used to establish
the strength of the relationship between
two variables. Before drawing any
conclusions a causal link needs to be
established
Limitations of qualitative forecasting
Trends don't always
continue into the future,
correlation changes over
time, external influences
cant be taken into
consideration, corporate
objectives may be
amended so other
objectives change , market
research may lack
reliability, forecasts
become harder to do the
further into the future
they are, ignores the
special understanding
staff of the business might
posses
Qualitative forecasting
Brainstorming
all individuals involved
discussing ideas.
Typically used for
problem solving
Individual hunch
A mananger may feel that
they have better
understanding of the market
even when numerical data is
strong they may suggest
something completely
different
Advantages- with a new
product there may be no past
numerical data, trends change,
there may be no clear
statistical indication of future
sales, factors influencing sales
maynot be easy to quantify, the
manager responsible wants to
make the final decision
Disadvanatges- experts may be knowledgeable
but they wont be able to understand all aspects of
the market, quantitative data is more reliiable, if
incorrect about a hunch a manger is open to
criticism
Purposes of market analysis
To gather evidence for a new
strategy
Identifying significant patterns
in sales - can allow them to have
a competitive advantage
measures performance,
motivates staff, allows
planning of resources,
work force planning and
budgets
Technology
Technology has allowed
us to analyse the market
further with the use of
loyalty cards etc.