voting behaviour models

voting behaviour models

1. party identification model

   • party identification or partisan alignment in the psychological attachment to a single party that is develped over a long period of time.
     • Rather than making a rational choice on who to vote for, they vote for a party as they are a supporter.
     • party identification is relativley stable and long-lasting. It also influences voters's attitudes towards issues, personalities and government performance.
       • Directly links to the two party system in the uk. Voters often see a battle between Conservative and Labour.
     • Our political values are brought through the process of growing up. The family, The education and the workplace. Children are often influenced heavily by their parents and it sticks with them.
   • partisan dealignment
     • Since the 1950's/1960's support the main parties has declined, this is also shown through the decline un party membership
     • In 1951, 96.7% of the vote went to both Conservative and Labour. In 2010, this figure had fallen to 65.1%
       • reasons why this has happened * class dealignment- people are less class conscious *education- people make more rational choices *ideology- neither of the main parties represent an ideology
         • There is now a wider range of party choices: In 2010, the Lib Dems won 23% of the vote and formed a coalition government with the conservatives

2. Rational Choice Model

   • parties can no longer rely on the loyalty of their voters, this links back to class and party dealignment
     • This means that parties have to rely on the votes based on their policies. The voters examine the policies of the parties and the vote for the one that fits best with their personal views
       • 2001 election: The NHS- 89%, Law and order/crime- 82%, Education- 81%, The economy- 74%, Employment- 70%, Pensions: 65%
         • This benefited Labour- they were trusted with public services. The conservatives focussed their campaign on Europe and Asylum seekers, 2 ISSUES THAT VOTERS DID NOT SEE IMPORTANT
       • 2005 election: The NHS- 21%, Economy- 15%, Education- 15%, Law and order- 13%, Tax- 12%
         • This also was seen to benefit Labour as these issues were areas of stength for the party
       • 2010 election: The conservatives focused their campaign on Labour's handling of the economy. Whereas, Labour focused theirs on Conservative plans to cut public spending.
         • Both Lib Dems and Conservatives new that they needed a change, Labour done this with New Labour in 1997.
       • In the 2015 election, the conservatives focused on their economic policies and management They defended their record in office, ignoring the work of the Lib Dems in Coalition
   • This argue that the individual comes to their voting choice by examining a number of factors and coming to a decision in a rational and deliberate way
     • Looking at issues that affect you personally, the economy is an important issue that many consider and look at what parties have handled the economy in the past

3. Social structures model

   • This argues that people characterstics influence the way tha twe particiapate in politics. In Britain, social class was seen to be the most influential factor, In 1967, Pulzer said 'class is the basis of politics' Other factors such as ethnicity, region, age and religion play a part but class was by far the most important.
     • Since the 1970's, there has been a talk of Class dealignment- people are far class conscious and this had led to a decline in the importance of class
       • CLASS DEALIGNMENT
         • there has been broad socio-economic changes that have effected our country.
           • Thatcher's conservative policies were popular with the working-class (sale of Coucil houses and privatisation)
             • The conservative won 4 successive elections through appealing to the working class (1979,83,87 and 92)
             • Labour won three successive elections by appealing to voters in 'middle England' (1997,2001 and 2005)
           • The class system is not rigid and people constantly move between them. CHANGES IN OCCUPATIONAL STRUCTURE: the working class has shrunk due to the loss of many of the traditional manufactoring jobs . Many tradesmen jobs are in high demand and have a large earning capacity
         • 2001 and 2005 election
           • There is still some resemblance between class and voting behaviour towards that party. The conservatives have strong support from A/B group, While labour has support from the D/E group.
             • 2001 election: Cons A/B- 40% D/E- 25% Lab A/B- 33% D/E- 50%
               • In 2010, labours support from all catagories fell. D/E group went from 50%, 48% to 40%
                 • In 2015, Labour lost a lot of its 'Blue collar voters' meaning the traditional working class members.
   • A - higher professional, managerial, administrative B- intermediate professional, managerial C1- Supervisory, electrical,C2- Skilled manual D- Semi-skilled and unskilled E- Casual Workers, people on Benefits
     • There was a strong link between your social class and how you voted. Labour had string support from the working classes, while the conservatives were more popular amongst the middle and upper class

4. Dominant Ideology

   • This argues that individual choices are influenced by the mass media. The media distorts the process of political communiction by shaping the agenda. EG: The topics that are being debated.
     • This is increasingly important as the media is the source of most people's political information and in the context of class and partisan dealignment, more pple are likely to make their decision in the run up to the election
       • People no longer read manifestos or go to political meetings This means that we get all our political information from the media. This could be dangerous because it gives them the oppurtunity to influence elections
         • IE: Rupert Murdoch owns the Sun, The times and Sky tv, making him an individual that could influence an election
       • THE SUN NEWSPAPER: the conservatives won the 1992 election despite being in a deep economic recession. The sun strongly backed the conservatives and attacked Labour throughout the campaign. EG: Neil Kinnock lightbulb front page
         • However in 1997, they switched and supported Labour, Blair met personally with Murdoch to convince him to change. Labour won a huge majority
           • Back to 2009, they said that they were supporting Conservative, could this have been because it was likely they would win. The conservatives had a clear advantage on the amount of newspapers supporting then in comparison to Labour or Lib Dem
     • THE IMPACT OF TV
       • It is meant to be politically neutral, limiting. However , Tv is sound to be the most important and trusted
         • Both parties try to bully the BBC into supporting that party, encouraging the use of Spin doctors. They are media advisers who try to get a favourable coverage. Alastair Campbell is the most famous example and Andy Coulson was a spin doctor David Cameron.
         • Party political broadcasts. 5 minute Slots that allow each party to put their views across.
   • RECENCY FACTOR

5. Voting context Model

   • The type of elections will influence how an individual casts their vote. If it is a ' lower tier' election, voters may not feel they need to protest vote or vote for a protest candidate. OR they may choose not to vote at all (voter fatigue) In some constituencies, they may choose to voter tactically.
     • Voter Fatigue: At less important elections, turnout is often much lower, Individuals with a lower level of political interestdo not bother to vote, This can have a large impact on the outcome of an election.
     • protest voting: This is often used in by-elections, local elections or European elections. Voters are no happy with the performance of the government or other leading parties, the voters find a way of sending them a warning. This was seen with the performance of UKIP in 2009 and 2014. In the run up to the 2010 election, Labour lost many 'safe seats' in By elections
     • Protest Candidates: Sometimes a local issue will lead to candidate standing on a particular issue.Dr Richard Taylor won for Wyre Forest in 2001 and 2005 as an independent candidate running to save the local hospital.
     • By-elections: These take place when an MP dies or decides to resign. They often encourage protest voting and the party that is in power can often lose safe seats. There were 21 by-elections between 2010 and 2014. Although labour held onto the first few 'safe seats', it began to loose the rest. Their ability to win marginal seats was more promising. The most notable by-election in 2014 when Douglas Carswell and Mark Reckless defected to UKIP from Conservative. They contested their own By-elections and won both of them
     • Protest Parties: George Galloway, from Labour, formed the respect party in response to the IRAQ war. They targeted constituencies with a high percentage of ethnic minority voters to highlight the anger towards Britains participation in the war. He was successful in winning Bethnal green and Bow in 2005 and Bradford west in 2012
     • Local elections: decided by national issues rather than local ones. EG: labour lost many council seats in 2007-2009 because of the unpopularity of Brown's Economic management
     • European elections: Very similar to local elections. Focused on the domestic politics rather than those at a European level. In 2009, conservatives were the biggest party with only 27% after the MP's expenses scandal. In 2014, Ukip benefitted the most, beating both Conservative and Labour
     • Devolved assemblies: In both Scotland and Wales, the nationalist parties are much stronger so people's voting behaviour varies The SNP are currently in Power in Scotland an took many of Labours safe seats in Scotland, that they were dependent on.
     • Tactical voting: Only takes place in certain constituencies, normally marginal seats. Voters will cast their vote in an attempt to stop their least favourite candidate. EG: A labour voter may choose to vote for Lib Dems to stop the conservatives from getting in. In 2010, Ed Balls and Douglas Alexander urged Labour and Liberal Democrat voters to vote carefully so that the Conservatives don't get in. Politicians could be seen as desperate.
     • Opinion Polls: gauge how people are going to vote and are often commented on in the media to show the relative strength of the parties in the run up to the election. Created by companies such as YouGov. Parties will also carry out their own polls, mainly focusing on and key types of voters t osee how their own party is doing
       • Opinion polls are seen to have two effects:
         • 'bandwagon' effect- this encourages the people to vote for the party that is most popular.
           • Another Argument is that they have the boomerang effect- A party that is trailing picks up sympathy votes or the voters of the leader parties become complacent or don't vote.
         • The polls had a significant impact in 1992, when throughout the campaign when Labour was leading but Conservatives won.This was because many people lied to the pollsters, there was a significant margin of error and many people were not registered to vote
         • In 2015, they were predicting a hung parliament throughout the campaign. On the eve of the election, the polls suggested that the Conservatives would have a victory but not a large majority.