estimates projects

estimates projects

1. estimating projects

   • Estimating
     • types of estimates
       • macro
         • top down
           • consensus methods
           • Ratio method
           • apportion method
           • function point method for software and system projects
       • micro
         • bottom up
   • quality of estimates
     • other factors
     • planning horizon
     • project complexity
     • people
     • project structure & organization
     • padding estimates
     • organization culture

2. preparing initial estimates

   • use people familiar with the task
   • use several people to make estimates
   • assume normal conditions
   • use consistent time units
   • assume tasks are independent
   • make no allowance for contingencies
   • include a risk assessments

3. estimates

   • time
   • cost
     • types of cost
       • direct costs
       • direct (projected) overhead costs
       • general & admin overhead costs
   • quality of estimates
     • planning horizon
     • project complexity
     • people
     • project structure & organization
     • padding estimates
     • organization culture
     • other factors
   • preparing initial estimates
     • use people familiar with the task
     • use several people to make estimates
     • assume normal conditiond
     • use consistent time units
     • assume tasks are independent
     • make no allowance for contingencies
     • include a risk assessment
   • refining estimates
     • reasons for adjusting estimates
       • overly optimistic
       • Strategic misrepresentation
       • changes in project scope and plans
       • things go wrong on projects
       • normal conditions do not apply
       • interaction costs are hidden in estimates

4. types of estimates

   • macro top down
     • consensus methods
     • Ratio methods (parametric)
     • apportion method
     • function point methods for software and system projects
     • learning curves
   • micro bottom up
     • template methods
     • parametric procedures
     • range estimates for the WBS work packages
     • phase estimating a hybrid

5. preferred approach

   • make rough top down estimates
   • develop the WSB/OSB
   • make bottoms up estimates
   • develop schedules and budgets
   • reconcile difference between top down & bottom up estimates

6. mega projects

   • white whale
   • often over cost & time estimates