The Demographic transition model (DTM)

The Demographic transition model (DTM)

1. what is it..

2. ·

   • stage 1
     • stage 1 (High Fluctuating) 1st stage a country will go through. (usually like cavemen) low population as there was little people on the earth, high birth rate as children were seen as a sign of fertility and a source of future income, also little family planning high death rates and infant mortality due to little health care. currently, amazon tribes would be in stage 1.
   • stage 2
     • stage 2 (early expanding) 2nd stage a country will go through. death rate drops significantly due to slight improvements to public health. birth rates are still high from little contraception. population starting to increase from less death rates. country in this stage would be LEDC's (Chad)
   • stage 3
     • stage 3 (Late expanding) 3rd stage a country will go through. the population continues to grow more rapidly. due to more health care and improved sanitation, changing socioeconomic conditions such as greater education for women, preferences for smaller families, and different changes/trends death rates and infant mortality continue to drop. however, the birth rates also start to drop due to better levels of contraception and education. a developing country or MIC would be in this stage such as Brazil or China.
   • stage 4
     • Stage 4 (Low fluctuating) 4th stage a country will go through. death rates and birth rates are low and flunctuating due to better health care/facilities or contraception and more sanitation. there are also more western views on having children. the overall population is increasing but starting to stop increasing (not as rapidly.) a HIC would be in this stage currently such as the UK.
   • stage 5
     • Stage 5 (Decline) this is said to be the 5th stage a country will go through. although it is more of a prediction. the population starts to fall, the birth rates is still low but increasing and the death rates are also still low but increasing at a slower rate than birth rates. not many countries would be in this stage, and example of one would be Germany

3. ·

   • reasons for stage 1/ when
     • stage 1 took placein the UK up till 1740. it had a high death rate from the black plague (1348-49) killing 1/3 its population. cheap gin drinking was another reason as it was poisoness in large amounts. this stopped after aa tax was put on gin (1751). the death rate flunctuates with the high birthrates due to lack of contraception/health care.
   • reasons for stage 2/when
     • stage 2 took place in the UK from 1740-1855. the death rate starts to drop due to volunteer hospitals founded.. in 1798, there was a huge drop in death rates due to Jenner discovering the 1st vaccination against smallpox leading to the 1st vaccination. Not to long after, the 1st census was recorded in 1801. the Birth rates began to rise in 1833 when a ban was put on child labor services.. during one point, there however was a rise in death rates due to bad sanitation, food shortage and bad housing in towns.
   • reasons for stege3 /when
     • stage 3 took place from about 1875- (......) the birth rates dropped rapidly due to 1st world war and birth control/ education. this meant families were becoming more controlled. the death rates continued to drop due to national insurance and the council beginning to treat TB (tuberculosis
   • reasons for stage 4/ when
     • stage 4 took place from the end of stage 3 to present day. the birth rates spiked for a short period due to a post war 'baby boom. not shortly after there was a short period of natural decrease.
   • reasons for stage 5/ when
     • even though we are close, we are currently not in stage 5 yet. countries such as Germany would be in this stage,

4. strengths and weaknesses of DTM model

   • strengths
     • DTM is a universal concept that can be applied to all countries. easily understood and compared
     • Assumptions about the level of development can be made by looking at demographic data. this can highlight if certain countries need aid or not.
     • Regions and countries fit into the stages (in exam show examples)
   • Weaknesses
     • It does not include impact of migration. e.g. fertility has increased in UK. could be from economic migrants as Germany have been receiving similar results.
     • The original model did not include the 5th stage, this had to be added for countries such as Germany and Japan. they have experienced such low birth rates that it has ended up exceeding the death rates. it hasn't accounted for changes other countries may enter.
     • It does not include the role of governments . the once child policy has meant south east Asia has gone from stage 2-3 quicker than the UK. its also arguable the UK was the 1st country to do so china simply could have known how to do so quicker.
     • limitations as a predictive tool (china
     • assumes all countries will follow the European sequence with socioeconomic changes (Eurocentric)

5. population change Thailand

   • birth rate in Thailand has fallen rapidly as a result of the national family planning program, (run by ministry of health 1970) this shows Thailand has moved from stage 2 to stage 3 of the DTM as people have wide spread awareness of contraception and are educated how to use it
     • public information program to ensure everyone knows about contraceptive methods
     • Advertisement of the benefits of a 2 child family
     • Establishing Healthcare centers throughout the country to provide free contraception
     • training paramedics and housewives who are mainly from the local villages and therefore known and trusted. they provide healthcare for babies, mothers so more babies are surviving ( infant mortality

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