Decision Tree

A

Country B

Country C

Country D

B

C

D

Improve (40% of $18m)

Improve (50% of $16m)

Improve (60% of $18 m)

Unchaged (30% of $10m)

Unchaged (30% of $7m)

Unchaged (30% of $8m)

Worsen (30% of $-2m)

Worsen (20% of $4m)

Worsen (10% of $2m)

$8M

$3M

$0.8M

$10.8M

$2.4M

$0.2M

$7.2M

$2.1M

-$0.6M

$10.6M

$11.3M

$9.8M

$11.8M - $10.6M = $1.2M

$13.4M - $9.8M = $3.6M

$8.7M - $11.3M = -$2.6M