Modelling an infectious disease

Modelling an infectious disease

1. By: Sofia Quintero

2. Usage various diseases

   • Permanent diseases
     • HIV Aids
     • Hepatitis C
     • Ebola
   • Temporal diseases
     • Malaria
     • Stomach Flue
     • Chicken Pox

3. Mathematical Method used:

   • SIR Model
     • Looks at how much of the population is susceptible to infection.
       • How many will become infecious
       • How many will go on to recover
     • Formulas
       • DS/ DT
         • Is a representation of the rate of change of those who are susceptible to the illness in relation to the time.
       • DI/DT
         • Is a representation of the people who are infected
       • DR/DT
         • Represents the one´s that have recovered from the disease during that time
       • D: Duration of the disease
   • R0 values
     • How many people an infectious person will pass on their infection to in a totally susceptible population
       • Explenation of the formula:

4. Mathematical Formula Used:

   • VT = 1 – 1/R0
     • • Where VT is the proportion of the population who require vaccinations.

5. Data will be collected from various data bases