Demographic Transition Model (DTM)

Demographic Transition Model (DTM)

1. History

   • The DTM is based on the demographic changes that occurred in Britain and other developed countries
   • The model was originally, put into place to show how the population had changed in developed countries

2. Stages

   • 1 - High Fluctuating
     • High Birth rate and Death rate
       • Birth rate
         • More children needed to provide for the family
         • Child mortality is high, so more children are born to keep the family alive
         • No/little family planning
         • Religious beliefs
           • No protection
           • Marry young
       • Death rate
         • High levels of disease
         • Bad working conditions
         • Famine
         • Poor Hygiene
         • War
     • Concave pyramid shape
     • Total population is low
     • e.g. Remote groups
   • 2 - Early Expanding
     • Classic pyramid shape
     • Death rate starts to decrease
       • Better Education
       • Better living conditions
       • Better access to food
       • Decreased child mortality
       • Better access to doctors
       • Infants get vaccines against disease
       • Higher quality food
     • Birth rate stays high
     • Total population starts to expand
     • e.g. Kenya
   • 3 - Late Expanding
     • Pyramid starts to even out
     • Death rate stay's low
     • Birth rate starts to decrease
       • Country is more developed, so people start to focus on work
       • Less children are needed to work on the land
       • Better healthcare
         • More children will survive
       • Family planning used
       • Rapid urbanisation lessens capacity for large families
     • Total population starts to grow
     • e.g. Brazil
   • 4 - Low Fluctuating
     • Pyramid starts to become top-heavy
     • Total population stays high
     • Death rate stay's low
     • Birth rate becomes low
       • Increased desire for possessions not family
       • Couples choice
       • Feminism/ Women's rights
       • More women in education, choosing careers over family
       • Very low infant mortality
     • e.g. UK, USA
   • 5 - Declining?
     • Pyramid is top-heavy
     • Birth rate stays low/ starts to get lower
       • Family planning
       • Good health
       • Late marriages
       • Improving women's status
     • Death rate stay's stable at low
       • Good healthcare
       • Reliable food source
     • e.g. Germany

3. Strengths

   • The DTM gives a good generalised picture of how a population can change over time
   • It's timescales are flexible so more countries can 'fit' in with the model
   • It's easy to compare countries with only three indictors
     • Birth rate
     • Death rate
     • Total population
   • Governments can use the DTM to predict how the population will change and make policies based on this

4. Weaknesses

   • The original DTM did not have a Decling stage (5), this was added when countries like Germany and Japan, exited the low fluctuating stage (4)
   • The DTM cannot predict when a country will reach a certain stage,. or for how long a country will stay in a stage for
   • The original model was constracted from developed European countries, the USA and Japn, so it may not be a vaild world model
   • It is based on the experience of industrialising countries, and therefore may not be vaild for non-industrialising countries such as poor, sub-Saharan African countries
   • The DTM is a strong descriptive model, but a weak predictive model
   • The DTM does not take into account migration
   • Countries in Southern Africa have had their death rate rise, so that it is similar to stage 1 due to dieases such as HIV/AIDS the DTM does not help to predict the future of these countries

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