Population Dynamics

Population Dynamics

1. How and why is population changing in different parts of the world?

   • Why does population change?
     • Key Terms: Birth rate - the number of children born per 1000 of the population in a year; Death rate - the number of people who die per 1000 of the population in a year; Natural increase - the difference between the birth and death rates; Life expectancy - the average age at which people die in the population; Infant mortality- the number of children who die under the age of 1 per 1000 births in a year; Fertility rate - the number of children that women have in their lifetime.
     • The Demographic Transition Model
       • Stage 1 - stable population. poor healthcare means that there is a high death rate, but birth rates are equally high.
         • stage 2 - rapidly growing (Uganda, Ethiopia). improvements in healthcare mean death rate falls, but birth rate remains high.
           • stage 3 - growth begins to slow (Malaysia, Egypt). social and economic changes means birth rate begins to fall.
             • Stage 4 - slow population growth (UK, USA). Birth rate and death rate balance so population is stable.
               • Stage 5 - declining population (Japan, Germany). low fertility and high life expectancy, so birth rate falls below death rate.
               • In stages 4 and 5 birth rates fall below replacement level (2 children per couple), because very wealthy societies have few children, so population declines
             • In stage 3 people are getting wealthier, so do not need as many children to help with farm work. women also often enter the workforce, so want to have fewer children.
           • In stage 2, there are rapid improvements in health because of vaccination, medicines and hospitals so death rates fall.
       • Reasons for change
   • comparing countries
     • Japan
       • women live longer than men.
         • fewer men aged over 85 because of the second world war
           • large numbers over 60
             • very few children
     • Nigeria
       • low life expectancy so few people over the age of 80
         • very large numbers under 15 years
           • base heavy pyramid = youthful population, whereas Japan's to heavy pyramid = an aging population.
     • factors that influence population structure
       • 1. Economic Growth - In Japan children are seen as a 'cost', which reduces the number born, whereas in Nigeria children can be an 'asset', as they can help on the farm or get a street job to boost the family income.
         • 2. Migration - migration can boost a country's population. in the UK, immigration increased population by 2.4 million during the period 1990-2010. in Japan, immigration is very low so does not help offset its aging population. about 300,000 people emigrated from Nigeria in 2012 - mostly working age men - to seek better jobs in other countries.
           • 3. Conflict - war and conflict often lead to a lower number of men in a country. This can be seen in the pyramid for Japan, as the number of men over 80 is very small - an impact of the deaths that occurred in the second world war.
   • Population structures
     • youthful population
       • Nigeria is an example of a country with a youthful population. this, much like an aging population results in a high dependency ratio. this creates issues such as high costs of feeding the population and high costs of education.
     • Aging population
       • japan is an example of an aging population. its aging population is a result of falling birth rates, very good healthcare and thus a high life expectancy, and low birth rates due to the costs of having children. in many developed countries , women have established careers and delay having children into their 30s to focus on their jobs. high childcare costs are also a factor, plus the high cost of housing means people delay marriage.
         • challenges faced as a result of an aging population include healthcare costs and demand rising, and in the uk this can strain the NHS; the rising cost of long term residential care and nursing homes for the elderly; as the percentage of people aged over 65 increases, the number of working age people falls - the smaller number of workers will have to pay higher taxes to care for the elderly; a shortage of workers for offices and factories is an issue facing japan today. japan has a high dependency ratio because of its aging population.

2. How far can population change and migration be managed sustainably?

   • Why do countries wish to control their populations?
     • 1. Pressure on resources - Rapid population growth could put pressure on food, water and energy supplies. Restricting population growth could relieve this pressure. most countries can now trade to get the resources nowadays so this issue is less important (thanks to globalisation).
     • 2. Overcrowding - resources like space, housing, education and health services could be overstretched by rapid population growth, especially in small countries like the UK or Singapore.
       • 3. skills shortages - some countries may lack he skilled workers they need, in which case they often encourage immigration. increasing the amount of skilled workers by raising birth rates rather than educating children is possible, but would take too long.
         • 4. Aging - countries like Japan could offset the problem of ageing by encouraging a higher birth rate and/or encouraging immigration, but both of these are controversial concepts.
   • Population policies in practice
     • China: anti natalist
     • Singapore; Pro natalist
   • why do migration policies vary from place to place and from time to time?
     • Why might a country wish to increase their immigration?
       • 1. reduce skills shortages and help the economy keep growing
         • 2. offset the issues of aging by attracting working age immigrants
           • 3. attract low skilled, low wage workers for farming and construction because the existing population won't do the 'dirty, demanding and dangerous' jobs
     • Why might a country wish to reduce immigration?
       • 1. the unpopularity of large scale immigration among voters
         • 2. fears that immigrants accept lower pay reducing pay fro everyone.
           • 3. fears that the host country culture becomes swamped by immigrants and that large scale immigration increases cultural tension
   • Different migration policies and their impact - evaluating the UK's immigration policy
     • open door policy to EU migrants since 2004
       • benefits - provides many low wage workers in farming, fish processing and low paid services, filling a gap in the labour force.
         • negatives - the number who have arrived is much larger than forest putting pressure on services such as education and housing.
           • points based immigration system for non EU migrant (since 2008.
             • benefits - the points system allows skills and migrant type to be matched with the UKs needs (skills tests)
               • negatives - it is a complex system that might deter some valuable migrants e.g. entrepreneurs who go elsewhere
                 • cap (quota) on non EU immigration since 2010
                   • benefits - key to reducing overall immigration numbers because the UK cannot restrict EU immigration.
                     • negatives - once the annual quota Is filled, no more immigrants are allowed, so some TNCs cannot get the skilled workers they need.

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